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The British media has been full of talk of Russian agression and invasion of its airspace. Even the MoD had to issue a corrective to media reports
NATO-Russia jet scrambling hysteria: Who is the real threat?
Dr
Alexander Yakovenko, Russian Ambassador to the United Kingdom of
Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Deputy foreign minister
(2005-2011).
20
February, 2015
The
British media frenzy following Defense Secretary Michael Fallon’s
accusation that Russia is preparing an attack against the Baltic
States warrants some clarifications on the actual scope of both
Russian and NATO air forces activities.
Regarding
Russia, its strategic bombers do regularly fly to remote geographical
areas and will continue to do so. This is necessary in terms of
training flight personnel and verifying aircraft capabilities.
All
flights are carried out in strict accordance with international
regulations regarding the use of airspace. Aircraft fly over the high
seas without entering the airspace and thus violating the borders of
other states, a fact that can be confirmed by radar data in each
case. Flights of Russian military aircraft are almost always
accompanied by jets from NATO countries and their partners. This is
standard procedure, and the level of public concern regarding the
latest incidents involving Russian aircraft in the vicinity of
British airspace have been blown vastly out of proportion.
Meanwhile,
the military activity of NATO aircraft on Russia’s borders is far
more intense. Starting from 2014, the intensity of operations of NATO
reconnaissance planes over the territory of the Baltic countries and
the Baltic and Barents Seas, all of which are in close proximity to
Russia’s borders, has increased significantly and account for
roughly 8-12 sorties per week. US Air Force RC-135s conduct
operations on an almost daily basis: more than 140 sorties in 2014,
compared to 22 in 2013. Spy planes from Sweden, Germany, Denmark and
Portugal (the latter's aircraft are temporarily based in Lithuania)
regularly monitor the activities of the Russian armed forces in the
Kaliningrad Region and over the Baltic Sea.
The
picture is similar in the Black Sea area: AWACS aircraft are actively
used from air force bases in Germany, Turkey and Greece, and
sometimes even from the UK and France.
These
aircraft have increased the intensity of their duty in Romanian and
Polish airspace from two sorties per month in January/February 2014
to 40-60 monthly since March 2014. The total number of sorties in
March - December 2014 reached 460, compared to just 20 over the same
period in 2013.
The
number of tactical fighter jets permanently based in the Baltic
States in order to patrol their airspace has increased from 4 to 14.
They represent the air forces of Canada, Portugal and Germany. The
two Dutch, two British and two Canadian jets stationed in Poland and
Romania have been reinforced on a rotating basis by US/NATO squadrons
of up to 12 warplanes.
Overall,
the number of sorties of NATO tactical warplanes near Russian and
Belarusian borders has doubled in 2014 compared with 2013, having
reached 3,000. By way of comparison, over the same period, Russian
reconnaissance aircraft carried out just over 200 sorties over the
Baltic Sea area, compared to 125 sorties in 2013.
It
is difficult to avoid the impression of NATO persistently increasing
its military capabilities in its eastern member states. Allegations
of a “Russian threat” are a convenient pretext for these
activities. The question remains open whether their actual aim is
just to ensure high military spending and a good level of
“Euro-Atlantic solidarity”, or if they are laying the grounds for
some aggressive actions against Russian interests. The growing
disparity between the actual situation and the official rhetoric of
some Western leaders is not helpful for restoring trust, which is
probably the primary victim of the current crisis in Russia-West
relations.
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