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We now have Syrian Ceasfire 2.0 in which, because of the Americans, some of the provisions remain secret. Is this because you have parts of the US government that are at war with each other and the Pentagon and CIA are implacably against any joint action against ISIS/Daesh.
It is very doubtful that this "ceasefire" will hold.
It is very doubtful that this "ceasefire" will hold.
Syrian
ceasefire II – Why any cessation of hostilities in Syria is doomed
to fail and what it would mean for the Syrian Army and its allies
By Aram
Mirzaei
On
12 September a new nationwide ceasefire agreement was implemented in
Syria, one brokered by the US and Russian Foreign Ministers after
weeks of crunch talks. There had been several attempts to reach a
deal in the previous weeks, but finally last Friday when foreign
ministers Kerry and Lavrov announced their agreement, the world was
lit with hope for some reason. Perhaps this time people believed the
US would be genuine and able to control their multiple proxies
operating in the country.
Part
of this ceasefire agreement would include the fabled moderate rebels
withdrawing from the jihadist camps; if they do not, the US says it
will withdraw its support for these groups. Interestingly, this is
the first time that the US openly threatens to withdraw its support
for its proxies, something that Russian analyst Dmitry Kosyrev
believes is because Washington does not have a chance to achieve its
goals in this conflict, hence why they agreed to this painful deal.
Kosyrev however also added that the most likely scenario will be that
jihadists will most likely try to capitalize on this cessation of
hostilities because “someone on the ground will refuse to adhere to
the agreement”. [1]
I
am inclined to agree with Kosyrev’s analysis and would also go as
far to say that the Russian demand for “moderate rebels” to
disassociate themselves from jihadist camps won’t be met. I say
this for two reasons; firstly because there are no moderate rebels,
there are only radical jihadists who want to overthrow the Syrian
government, one of the last truly secular governments left in the
region, and turn Syria into a Levantine Emirate. Secondly, in the
unlikely event that there are any moderate rebels among the jihadist
coalitions such as Jaysh Al-Fateh and Fatah Halab, any such group
leaving these jihadist coalitions would commit both political and
military suicide as they would lose any leverage they have over the
Syrian government, as the jihadists know they are stronger if they
remain united, furthermore any such group leaving the jihadist
coalitions would most likely be turned into targets by the other
jihadist groups who would deem them to be traitors. We are all too
familiar with what terrorist groups such as ISIL and Jabhat Fateh
Al-Sham (formerly Jabhat Al-Nusra) do to those that they deem to be
traitors.
Supporting
this theory is the fact that rebel (jihadist) groups announced that
they would not abide by the ceasefire even before it was implemented
on Monday at sunset. Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, Syria’s largest
jihadist faction officially announced, through their deputy leader in
a televised statement “Abu Ammar Al-Umar” that they reject the
nationwide ceasefire proposal. He cited that they would reject any
ceasefire that excludes “certain groups” in Syria, referring to
Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham, a close partner of Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham. This
once again confirms the suspicion that the plethora of “rebel”
groups in Syria all work as one with a common goal in mind, and that
they will not leave the side of internationally designated terrorist
groups, with close links to Al-Qaeda.[2]
On
Tuesday morning, jihadist militants once again reaffirmed this
position when over 20 jihadist groups declared that they have
rejected the ceasefire proposal, an announcement made by groups such
as the US-backed Free Syrian Army, Harakat Nour Al-Deen Al-Zinki,
Jabhat Al-Shamia, Jaysh Al-Nasr and Ajnad Al-Sham. They all cited
that the major reason for their rejection was the exclusion of Jabhat
Fateh Al-Sham and that this would leave the Syrian Army in a more
beneficial position than they would. [3]
Contrary
to the jihadist statements, Damascus, Tehran and Hezbollah all
welcomed the ceasefire proposal. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman
Bahram Ghassemi, said on Sunday that “The Islamic republic of Iran
always welcomes a ceasefire in Syria and the facilitation of the
access of all the country’s people to humanitarian aid.”
Meanwhile Hezbollah’s media wing “Military media” said that
“the allies of Syria will support any decision that the Damascus
government makes”. [4] [5]
Ghassemi
also blamed armed groups for breaking previous ceasefires, saying,
“Just as the Syrian government has a number of times emphasized,
the lack of necessary guarantees on the adherence of
terrorist-takfiri groups to the ceasefire have been an obstacle to
the success of previous ceasefires.” Ghassemi added that for this
ceasefire to be successful, there needs to be “comprehensive
monitoring and control of the borders to block the dispatch of
terrorism and arms.”
Ali
Akbar Velayati, the foreign policy adviser to Iran’s supreme
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, however was more cautious about the
ceasefire. “A ceasefire and a suspension of the war is the desire
of everyone; however, if the cost of it is that the enemies of
the government and people of Syria misuse it, not only will this
ceasefire not be successful, but it will be harmful,” Velayati
said. He added that previous ceasefires had been to the benefit of
groups like Jabhat Al-Nusra.[6]
Velayati
was referring to the previous ceasefire deal that failed and resulted
in the jihadists capitalizing on the ceasefire to launch attacks in
Southern Aleppo and recapturing areas previously lost to the Syrian
Army and its allies, an incident that angered the Iranian Islamic
Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and Hezbollah. In a previous article I
quoted the Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan who expressed his
dissatisfaction with the ceasefires that almost always resulted in
the jihadists rearming and resupplying their forces in order to
launch new attacks on the Syrian Army and its allies, Dehqan,
referring to a May 7 attack on the town of Khan Touman said that “We
agree to a guaranteed cease-fire that does not lead to terrorists
building up their powers.”
The
conservative newspaper Vatan-e Emrooz appeared to welcome the
news of a ceasefire in an article titled “Obama’s
Force Could
Not Reach Assad.” It contends that the differences between
the United States and Russia will force President Barack Obama to
leave office with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still in
office.[7]
It
would seem that this time, there is a closer coordination between
Moscow and Tehran on the conditions for the cessation of hostilities,
with Iran and Hezbollah assuming an overall more positive stance
towards the agreement. [8] This
could be explained by the fact that the Syrian Army and its Iranian
and Lebanese allies are seemingly no longer left paralyzed with their
hands tied behind their backs, this time they are able to respond to
any aggression with force, and due to the exclusion of Jabhat Fateh
Al-Sham and their collaborators such as Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham and
Harakat Nour Al-Deen Al-Zinki who have already rejected the
ceasefire, the Syrian Army does not have to stop its campaigns in
areas such as Southern Aleppo and Northern Latakia.
It
should have come as no surprise to anyone that the jihadists broke
the ceasefire only an hour after it took into effect last night by
firing rockets at the Syrian Army positions in the volatile Northern
Hama front. Later that same night, jihadists launched a new assault,
targeting the small town of Khattab in Northern Hama. [9]
By
all logic, this violation coupled with the jihadists rejecting the
ceasefire should make them legitimate targets for the Russian Air
Force, the Syrian government forces and its allies on the ground.
This seems to be the case in areas such as Northern Latakia, Southern
Aleppo, Quneitra and Northern Hama as the Syrian Army has geared up
to continue its campaigns against the jihadists who have plagued
these areas. As a matter of fact, the Syrian Army has already flooded
the Aleppo province with reinforcements from the Republican Guard,
IRGC and Harakat Al-Nujaba (Iraqi paramilitary) in preparations for
an upcoming offensive, possibly led by the prominent Iranian General
Qassem Soleimani who was seen last week in Southern Aleppo,
inspecting the troops stationed there. [10]
It
remains to be seen how Washington will respond to their proxies’
rejection of the ceasefire agreement, and the continued Syrian Army
advance in the aforementioned areas. We can safely assume that
Washington has not had a change of heart when it comes to the idea of
regime change in Syria. This ceasefire deal is doomed to collapse
because the jihadists cannot and will not accept a cessation of
hostilities, and while the Russian Foreign Ministry said that it
“hope[s] the American side walks its part of the road and exerts
due influence on those it considers Syria’s ‘moderate’
opposition to have them completely obey by the regime of cessation of
hostilities and implement the Russian-U.S. agreements,” the
question remains; will Washington stay true to its words and end its
support for these jihadists? [11]
The
Russian Foreign ministry also added that “it is worth reminding
that despite our consistent calls the United States has given no
consent to put Ahrar al-Sham on the United Nations terrorist list.”
Washington has kept a consistent policy of protecting terrorist
factions in Syria from being designated as terrorists, why would it
change its policy now, and label one of its major proxy forces as a
terrorist organization, thus legitimizing Russian-Syrian-Iranian
efforts against them?
- https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/20-militant-groups-reject-syrian-ceasefire-agreement/ ↑
- https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-hezbollah-welcome-aleppo-truce/ ↑
- http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/09/11/484184/Iran-Syria-Bahram-Qassemi ↑
- https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/ceasefire-allows-syrian-army-prepare-upcoming-aleppo-offensive/ ↑
Syrian War Report – September 15, 2016: 250 ISIS Terrorists Killed in Russian Air Strikes
Syrian
rebels using ceasefire to gain better battlefield positions’ –
fmr Pentagon official
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