For
those that understand Russian
"Президент".
Фильм Владимира Соловьева
A
film about Presdent Putin
Putin
Alexander
Mercouris
The
latest documentary on Putin appears to be timed to coincide with
Putin's 15 years in office.
I
should say that I do not entirely understand the timing. Putin became
acting Prime Minister on 9th August 1999. He became formally Prime
Minister on 16th August 1999. It was fairly obvious (at least to me)
that he was running things and that Yeltsin had been pushed aside
thereafter.
Putin
then became Acting President on 31st December 1999. He was elected
President (with 53% of the vote) on 26th March 2000. He was formerly
sworn in as President on 7th May 2000.
None
of these dates seem to me to correspond with any anniversary over the
last few days and as I have said Putin was actually exercising
effective power for some months before he formally became President.
Putting
that aside, I don't think anyone would seriously disagree that he has
been far and away the dominant figure in international politics over
the last 15 years.
Even his many detractors have to agree. The vast
literature they produce abusing him shows what an extraordinary hold
over the world's imagination he has.
So
what qualities does Putin have that have made him so politically
dominant?
The
first point to make is that Putin is powerful because he is a Russian
who is the leader of Russia, which is one of the world's most
powerful countries.
This
banal point is rarely made but the fact is that if Putin had been
born in Guatemala or Katmandu or indeed in Britain or France or Japan
he would not have made anything like the impact that he has. Much of
what people attribute to "Putin" (whether for good or ill)
they should correctly attribute to Russia.
I
have previously spoken of the danger of the unhealthy conflation of
Putin with Russia that is so common in the West. Russia is more than
Putin and Russia matters. Indeed it is one of the great powers of
this world and the last 15 years have been a lesson proving that.
Westerners who treated Russia as down and out and who now rage
against Putin are basically angry because he and Russia have proved
them wrong.
Putin
does nonetheless possess certain essential qualities that explain his
success. I would emphasise three:
1.
Putin is an exceptional politician who understands the Russian mind.
It is no exaggeration to say that his heart beats with Russia's. That
does not mean that all Russians always agree with him or that
everything he does is popular. Nonetheless he has an extraordinary
instinct (which no amount of opinion polling can ever replicate) for
what most Russians want or think.
2.
He listens to advice and takes it from the right people. I have never
felt with Putin that he makes his decisions on the hoof or on him.
He
has put together a very capable and professional team to which he is
intensely loyal and which in turn is loyal to him.
He
is careful to take his advice from those who have genuine knowledge
of a subject. Thus he takes advice on financial or economic policy
issues from people like Ulyukaev and Siluanov (and formerly from
Kudrin and Gref) and on security issues from people like Patrushev
and Shoigu and not from the enthusiastic amateurs that most other
leaders (including previously Gorbachev) like to take advice from.
The result is that his decisions are invariably well-informed even if
they are not always right.
3.
He has the power of decision. We saw this in action last year when he
acted decisively over the Crimea. We have seen it again over the last
few days when he went to Yerevan to commemorate the Armenian
genocide. Contrast this with the contorted obfuscations and over
complicated and pusillanimous evasions of western leaders who have
arguably less to lose where relations with Turkey are concerned.
Needless
to say, precisely because he makes decisions, leaders of countries
like those of Saudi Arabia, Israel or Turkey, respect him even when
they oppose him. By contrast Western leaders, who appear to have all
lost the power of decision, respond with bafflement and jealousy.
I
don't pick out these three factors as the only ones that explain
Putin's success. Others will point to his high intelligence and his
capacity for hard work.
Some
of his strengths also reflect weaknesses. His grasp of the minds of
Russians does not appear to extend to the intelligentsia to the same
degree, which is why he has been less successful with them (though
that is probably to underestimate how bloody minded some of them
are). This is a pity because his public comments show that he is
actually a well read and even erudite man. I suspect that a lot of
the trouble is that deep down they feel that he doesn't pay them
enough attention, which given the extraordinary demands on his time
must be difficult to do.
Regardless,
those are my views about some of the reasons why Putin dominates both
Russian and international politics to such an amazing degree with no
challenge in sight.
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