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Ukraine SITREP Thursday March 12th, 2015
12
March, 2015
The
main development in the Ukraine is the sharp increase in the number
of visible signs of the economic collapse taking place. Prices are
sky-rocketing, more and more salaries are simply unpaid, shortages
are becoming more frequent and as a direct result, so are social
protests. The interesting thing is that these protests are not
limited to the eastern Ukraine, but are also taking place in western
regions of the country. These protests includes strikes and street
protests. The IMF has agreed to $17.5bn in loans to Ukraine but that
will clearly not be sufficient, if only because whatever money is not
stolen will be used for war. The situation is now so dire that the
Ukraine purchases gas from Russia only for a couple of days in
advance.
The
situation is also sharply deteriorating along the line of contact
where the junta forces have resumed sporadic shelling all along the
frontline. It is becoming evident that the junta forces have not
withdrawn their heavy weapons. DNR Foreign Minister Alexander Kofman
has declared yesterday that he expected a full scale junta attack
within the next two weeks. Needless to say, such an attack has
exactly zero chance of success, but if it is executed in response to
a false flag atrocity somewhere near the line of contact it will at
least serve to distract the public from the economic disaster taking
place in all of the Ukraine.
Since
the Hrivna is in free fall and since Kiev has stopped paying pensions
and bank operations in the Donbass, the two Novorussian republics
have now switched to a multi-currency system in which the Hrivna, the
Ruble, the Dollar and the Euro are all legal tender.
As
was easily predicted, the Minsk 2 Agreement has now basically stalled
because the junta is apparently unable (or unwilling) to withdraw its
heavy weapons or engage in constitutional reforms. As a direct
result of this, Russia and Novorussia are now the legal “owners”
of the border between the two countries.
US
military aid is slowly coming in, and officially it is limited to
non-lethal aid. As I said many times, no amount of military aid will
make any real difference in the military balance between the junta
and Novorussia.
Finally,
I am happy to announce that a representative of the Saker Community
has been chosen to travel to the Donbass as part of the trip
organized by the agency Europa Objectiv. God willing, this will
allow us to get a daily travel report with photos and interviews. My
thanks to all those who applied and sorry that you were not chosen.
The
Saker
12.03.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. War in Ukraine, US, Russia, Crimea, Donbass
US National Guard Troops Are Being Sent To Ukraine
The Anti-Media,
10 March, 2015
According to Colonel Michael Foster at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, the US National Guard will be deployed to Ukraine to protect the interests of NATO and the US government.
“Before
this week is up, we’ll be deploying a battalion minus… to the
Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces for the fight that’s taking
place. What we’ve got laid out is six United States companies that
will be training six Ukrainian companies throughout the
summer,” Foster
said in a statement this week.
This
news comes just one week after UK Prime Minister David Cameron
announced that UK will also be sending military advisors to Ukraine.
Additionally,
it was reported last month that the US
Air Force sent a
dozen A-10 Thunderbolt II attack jets and about 300 soldiers to
Germany, where they will train with NATO soldiers in exersizes to
prepare for conflicts in eastern Europe. The aircraft and soldiers
will stay there so they are nearby if any major conflict should
arise.
Ukraine complains of European embargo on armored vehicle engines
Translated
from Russian by J.Hawk
An
interesting analysis of problems associated with restoring and
repairing Ukrainian AFVs, published by AUTO-Consulting.ua.
“Ukrainian
defense industries have problems in supplying engines for BTRs,
BRDMs, BMDs, and other military vehicles. They used to be equipped
with Russian-manufactured engines, but for understandable reasons
these deliveries have stopped. Attempts to find alternative suppliers
abroad have likewise failed.
According to AUTO-Consulting data,
German firms MTU, Mercedes Benz, and Italian IVECO have all refused
to supply engines under various pretexts. Truck manufacturer AvtoKrAZ
encountered similar problems, and is now forced to look for
alternatives to the Russian YaMZ engines. “Engine Hunger” may
threaten not only the manufacture of new AFVs, but also the
restoration of stored AFVs.
Naturally,
Russian special services are at fault here too. But we have predicted
an engine shortage problem already a year ago. We predicted already
then that the Russian FSB will undermine engine supplies for
Ukrainian vehicles. Alas, that is exactly what happened.
Even
if engines are supplied, they have to be adapted to the vehicle,
which takes months of engineering work. Then military units have to
learn how to operate and service them, and to establish spare part
reserves. Ukraine has no time for that.
President’s
advisor Yuriy Biryukov wrote on his Facebook page that restoring
equipment after 30 years in storage is no simple process:
There
are lots of BTR hulls available. BTR-70s, not as many -80s, a few
-60s. However, everything inside is rotten through. Once an BTR sits
in a field for 30 years it turns into a big pile of metal. Even after
tremendous restoration effort, all it can do is drive for 200-300km
and die. Reasons for that are quality of spares, absence of spares,
absence of technology and specialists. All of this equipment is from
the ‘60s and ‘70s. It’s old and dead.
So
you want to put a new diesel engine into a BTR-70?! Let’s do it!
But which one? YTD-20? Where to you propose to get them? Are you
aware that the experiment in equipping BTR-70s with UTD-20 engines
failed spectacularly, and now 20 modernized BTR-70s are gathering
dust at the 25th Brigade?
So
let’s put an imported engine into a BTR-70! Do it! Buy some!
Overcome the informal embargo, reach an agreement with
IVECO/Mercedes/Deutz. Maybe they won’t tell you to go f***
yourselves…--concludes Biryukov.
Indeed,
Ukraine does not manufacture engines suitable for AFVs. All storage
facilities have been cleared out, all Russian sources of engines have
been cut off.
The only thing that’s left is buying imported engines
(but there’s an informal embargo in place), or building own factory
to manufacture licensed engines. But there aren’t all that many
engine types suitable for AFVs. However, luckily many of them are
also used in farm equipment. Incidentally, Ukrainian farm equipment
manufacturers also have to buy engines “on the side.” So maybe
the government should create conditions for establishing domestic
engine manufacture that would deal with the shortage of engines for
AFVs, tractors, and possibly also KrAZ? But that would require a
far-seeing state economic policy, instead of playing with exchange
rates and trying to obtain an IMF credit at all costs, only so that
it can be returned to previous credдtors.”
J.Hawk’s
Comment: The
part about the “informal embargo” is the truly interesting aspect
of the piece. Let’s face it, for all the talk about NATO arming or
supplying Ukraine, it hasn’t sent much of anything useful (Saxon
APCs, for example), and when it did (US counter-mortar radars), it
provided them in token quantities. It’s yet another piece of
evidence indicating that the EU, at any rate, does not want to see
Ukraine resume fighting on the Donbass. Biryukov does not mention any
US diesel engine manufacturers, but he also does not say “hey, we
forgot about the Americans.” It would seem that the US is deferring
to the EU on the question of rearming and re-equipping the UAF.
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