Monday, 16 March 2015

About rumours of a coup d'etat against Putin

There are rumours, emanating from an former Israeli ambassdor and a liberal (read, fifth column) broadcaster, that there is a coup going on in Russia.

Russia Update: Is There a Slow-Motion Coup Under Way?



From Haaretz March 15, 2015.


Zvi Magen believes army factions or wealthy businessmen could be behind President Vladimir Putin’s disappearance.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin was last seen in public on March 5, and in Russia there are increased fears he is the victim of an attempted coup by security organizations and the Russian army.

Israel’s former ambassador to Russia, Zvi Magen, told Haaretz he believes “there are many signs of a coup. The movement of the army around the Kremlin indicates that there is a change in government, or that an attempt at a change in government is being carried out.”

Magen believes those responsible for the potential coup are “branches or factions in the army who are working together or against one another, or wealthy businessmen, many of whom worked in these organizations. They could only be people who are free to walk around the corridors of the Kremlin.”

He says possible reasons include the ongoing sanctions imposed by the West on those close to the Kremlin, sanctions “that harm them personally. I don’t believe there’s a controversy there surrounding policy. They’re protecting their own interests.””

Read more HERE:

If you prefer videos ....




There has been (up to now), no comments from the sources I trust.  I will post what the Saker says about this elsewhere.

Here is an article about the rumours, with some general comments, from Russkaya Vesna

I apologise for the rough translation, but the meaning should be clear

Putin and coup d'etat


Путин и переворот | Русская весна
16 March, 2015


I believe that tomorrow we will see in one form or another  statement from Putin, for the silence on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea to Russia could create a large wave of rumors and even panic among impressionable citizens.

Regarding the rumors about a coup, one that is quite competent friend said that the rumors about the murder of General Zolotov do not correspond to reality.

From thoe pieces of information in the ocean of rumors and speculation, there is no clear picture of what is happening in the Kremlin, but if we project taking place in the Novorissia on the situation in general, then everything is going as it was before, without significant changes, which could be followed with some major personnel changes affecting key issues of state security.

Regrading the hysteria on the subject of statements by Strelkov about Nicholas II and Milosevic, there are lot of people with cries of "Well, you see, you see". Strelkov repeated this comparison all of the past year, and here "as from the shower washed over".

Moreover, it is obvious that if Putin is overthrown as a result of  acoup prepared by the Americans and part of the local elite coup, he would be either killed as was Nicholas II (deposed by his environment), or indeed sent to the International Court in the Hague (which again was contributed to partly  by the inner circle of Slobodan Milosevic).

There by the way there is the Gadaffi variant, for some liberals would not be against a repetition of the the Libyan scenario in Russia .

He who does not understand these scenarios iseither hopelessly stupid or deliberately takes the conversation into a discussion of street liberalistic clowns, whereas almost all coups organized by the American coups that led to the overthrow of legitimate governments, had as the the key to its mechanism the betrayal by part of the elite, which gave up their local chieftain in exchange for power, money or life.

Not the coup threat, where the crowd runs around shouting "Give Lacy panties" and that is where behind the screen like idiots, there are people who are already in power who are still under the old regime, pave the way for future changes.

Yanukovych was hunted,  not by assholes with pots on their heads and wooden shields but by people associated with Ukrainian and foreign secret services with the aim of his elimination

In operation of Gaddafi's murder  involved NATO and French special forces were involved  who ensured the designation.

In Syria "democratic opposition" was led, not  by students "worried by the lack of democracy, but the generals and Ministers in al-Assad's circle.

In Libya part of the opposition Gaddafi was headed by generals in  Gaddafi's  circle who defected, and the capital was taken by one of those who was given the responsiblity for the defense of the city.

it is inconvenient to remember about Nicholas II, who resigned under the pressure of the State Duma and generals of the Imperial Army.

Cases where the seizing of the power comes from below, and not from above, are extremely rare. Therefore, the October revolution here is unique in its kind, as it actually reset the elite, and then over the next 10-15 years multiplyied it by zero and replaced it with a new, Soviet, elite. Already by the end of the 80's degenerated and provided behind-the-scenes process of the collapse of the USSR. Again behind the screen signs "Inmates of psychiatric hospitals for Yeltsin."

Practice shows that in 80-90% of cases, coups d'état are initiated by part of the elite, when under the guise of street protests (and sometimes without them), there is a change of power in the interests of internal or external (sometimes both) of powers (гешефтополучателей.?)

Examples of truly popular revolutions, are quite rare and usually differ in that are not in the interests of one part of the elite, but are directed against the old elite in principle, as it was the case in the French Revolution and the 1917 October Socialist Revolution.

An unenviable fate (death penalty or imprisonment), usually awaits deposed rulers so if there is going to be a coup in Russia, the threat of which is constantly spoken of by  Russian officials, Putin can expect the same fate mentioned by Strelkov,

Does the power understand the threats mentioned by Strelkov? Of course it understands. Does Putin and his entourage perceive the threat? Yes of course it does.

If after the Crimean spring the ruling elite still harboured any illusions about what be agreed with the United States without major concessions, in the autumn, after Milan, it became clear that there will be no agreement but a long conflict, where the main line of the USA is not the desire for "military victory over Russia, but regime change in Russia, which is associated with the overthrow of Putin.

Pressure on the Russian elite , in the view of the Untied States, should be a motivator for some of them, to provoke a palace coup in Russia and to accept its its capituatlation without Putin, who must be overthrown (and then condemned like Milosevic, or killed like Gaddafi or Nicholas II).

To pretend that this threat does not exist, it means to dwell in a criminal complacency engendered by historical ignorance of the nature of most of the coups.


Путин и переворот



Полагаю, что уже завтра мы увидим в том или ином виде заявление Путина, ибо молчание в день годовщины присоединения Крыма к России может породить еще большую волну слухов и даже паники среди впечатлительных сограждан.

Касательно слухов про переворот, один достаточно компетентный знакомый сообщил, что слухи про убийство генерала Золотова действительности не соответствует.

Из тех обрывков информации в океане слухов и домыслов, пока не складывается ясная картина того, что происходит в Кремле, но если проецировать происходящее в Новороссии на ситуацию в целом, то там идет все так, как и шло до этого, без значимых изменений, которые могли бы последовать при каких-то кардинальных кадровых переменах влияющих на ключевые вопросы безопасности государства.

Касательно истерик на тему заявлений Стрелкова про Николая II и Милошевича, немало позабавали люди с криками «Ну ты видел, ты видел!». Стрелков с этим сравнением выступал весь прошедший год, а тут «как из душа окатило».

Причем совершенно очевидно, что если Путин будет свергнут в результате подготовленного американцами и частью местной элиты переворота, то он как раз будет либо убит как Николай II (свергнут своим окружением), либо действительно отправлен на судилище в Гаагу (чему опять же поспособствовала часть ближнего окружения Слободана Милошевича).

Есть еще кстати и варианты аля Каддаффи, ибо некоторые либерасты не прочь повторить в России и ливийский сценарий.

Тот кто не понимает этих сценариев, либо безнадежно глуп, либо сознательно уводит разговор в обсуждение уличных либерастических клоунов, тогда как практически все, подчеркиваю, практически все организованные американцами перевороты приводившие к свержению законных правительств, ключевым своим механизмом имели именно предательство части элиты, которая сдавала местного вождя в обмен на власть, деньги или жизнь.

Не тот переворот опасен, где толпа бегает с криками «Даешь кружевные трусы», а тот — где за ширмой подобных идиотов, стоят люди которые уже находятся при власти, которые еще при старом режиме, готовят почву для будущих «изменений».

За тем же Януковичем ведь охотились не придурки с кастрюлями на головах и деревянными щитами. Охотились люди связанные с украинскими и иностранными спецслужбами с целью ликвидации.

В операции с убийством Каддафи была задействована авиация НАТО и французский спецназ обеспечивший целеуказание.

В Сирии «демократическую оппозицию» возглавили не «взволнованные отсутствием демократии студенты», а генералы и министры из окружения Асада.

В Ливии часть оппозиции Каддафи возглавили перебежавшие от Каддафи генералы, а столицу сдал один из тех, кто отвечал за оборону города.

Про Николая II, который отрекся под давлением Государственной Думы и генералов Императорской Армии так и вовсе неудобно вспоминать.

Случаи, когда перехват власти происходит снизу, а не сверху, крайне редки. Поэтому тот же Октябрь у нас и является уникальным в своем роде, так как он фактически обнулил элиту, а потом за следующие 10–15 лет помножил ее на ноль и заменил новой, уже советской. Которая уже к концу 80-х выродилась и обеспечила кулуарный процесс развала СССР. Опять же за ширмой вывески «Узники психушек за Ельцина».

Практика показывает, что в 80–90% случаев, государственные перевороты инициируется частью самой элиты, когда под прикрытием уличных протестов (а иногда и без них), осуществляется смена власти в интересах внутренних или внешних (иногда и тех и других) гешефтополучателей.

Обратные примеры подлинно народных революций, достаточно редки и как правило отличаются тем, что осуществляются не в интересах одной части элиты, а направлены против старой элиты в принципе, как это было в Великую Французскую Революцию и Великую Октябрьскую Социалистическую Революцию.

Свергнутого правителями как правило ждет незавидная судьба (смерть, казнь или заключение), поэтому если в России случится государственный переворот, об угрозе чего постоянно говорят российские официальные лица, то Путина может ждать как раз та судьба, о которой говорит Стрелков.

Понимает ли власть те угрозы, о которых говорил Стрелков? Конечно понимает. Осознается ли угроза Путину и его окружению? Да конечно осознается.

Если после Крымской весны в правящих элитах еще бродили какие-то иллюзии на тему того, что с США можно договорится без кардинальных уступок, то уже осенью, после Милана, стало ясно, что договорится не получится и предстоит длительный конфликт, где основной линией США будет не стремление к «военной победе над Россией», а смена политического режима в России, что связано с свержением Путина.

Давление на российские элиты по задумке США должно стать мотиватором для части из них, чтобы спровоцировать дворцовый переворот в России и принять ее капитуляцию уже без Путина, который должен быть свергнут (а затем осужден как Милошевич, или убит как Каддафи или Николай II).

Делать вид, что этой угрозы не существует, значит пребывать в преступном благодушии порожденном историческим невежеством в отношении природы большинства государственных переворотов.


Russia Update: Is There a Slow-Motion Coup Under Way?



13 March, 2015

The Kremlin has published a new picture of President Vladimir Putin reportedly meeting with the head of the Supreme Court today, but as throughout the week, there was no confirmation that the picture hadn’t been taken in the past.

Ekho Moskvy Editor Urges Calm, Says News on Putin to Come in 48 Hours
A brief tweet yesterday evening March 14 by Alexey Venediktov, editor-in-chief of Ekho Moskvy has been widely re-tweeted because many found it reassuring:
По ВВП -- все, успокойтесь. Подождите 48 часов
Translation: Regarding VVP [Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin] - that's it, calm down. Wait 48 hours.
This immediately got picked up by a German blogger and others and amplified:
Most reliable info on Putin tonight: "Calm down - in 48 hours we will know more" -- Ekho Moskvy radio chief @aavst
At times like this Twitter is revealed as a massive game of "gossip," as it is called in the United States or "Chinese whispers" in other countries and in Russia "broken telephone."

How would Venediktov know anything about Putin's status? When he gave an interview last week, he said he didn't know where the president was.
He does have one obvious contact close to the Kremlin, the former general manager ofEkho Moskvy, Yekaterina Pavlova, the wife of Aleksey Pavlov, deputy head of the President’s Department of Press Service and Information in the Kremlin. Pavlov is one of the deputies of Dmitry Peskov, the presidential administration spokesman. Pavlova and her husband might not know, however, as this office is given communications by others to distribute and may not themselves have any direct contact with the president, especially now that he has been missing or in hiding for 8 days.

No doubt Venediktov has other sources, but nothing short of Putin himself appearing in public will be definitive, and even then, it will take some time to see if he has been under the strain of a power struggle and what the "correlation of forces" are now.

Venediktov had another re-tweet that was less reassuring that people who got the "48 hours" tweet didn't see unless they studied his whole timeline. But there, too, he sought to deflect panic.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter
@bamr69: Москва? Москва!!!!! pic.twitter.com/ixP96AKkyV” к параду Крыма 18-го

Translation: "@bamr69 Moscow? Moscow!!! "for the Crimean parade on the 18h.

There are a certain number of armored vehicles that can be seen around the Kremlin ordinarily. In recent days, there has been a large amount of activity on Red Square, with numerous trucks and construction materials. Some theorized that these vehicles could be for a celebration of the forcible annexation of the Crimea to be held on March 18. There will be a concert and speeches and Putin is expected to appear there, although no formal announcement to this effect was made.
But independent video reporter Sasha Sotnik reported on his Facebook page that the photographs of the tanks were fake.
I urge you not to distribute fake photos of Red Square "surrounded" by military armor. Just take note that  Spasskaya Tower is not draped in this photo as it is today. If armored vehicles had entered Moscow, there'd be lots of fresh photos from Muscovites themselves. Well, and I would definitely hear the noise from Leninsky Avenue. I know perfectly well what kind of noise carries from the movement of a tank column. And then, if there was something serious like a military encirclement of the Kremlin, I would definitely go out to the scene of the events and take videos.

I'm sitting home and drinking coffee. I don't hear any gunfire, and not even helicopters today. Quiet...and the hysterics are out of place.
Here are Moscow's online cameras. See.

The web cams don't include Red Square but some nearby streets. 


RussiaUpdate: Putin Still Missing. Will He Appear Tomorrow?



No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.