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It seems that things are completely collapsing for the Ukrainian army in the Debaltsevo cauldron.
Look out, Poroshenko!
Meanwhile diplomacy is going on at the UN Security Council.
More to come.
Yet another monumental failure for the junta
17
February, 2015
All
my sources confirm that Debaltsevo is mostly in Novorussian hands
and that the junta forces are in full retreat to the south of the
pocket. All the top Novorussian brass was on hand today,
including Kononov, Motorola, Givi, Mozgovoi and Zakharchenko as were
many tens of Ukrainian prisoners. It appears that the junta
forces were unable to provide the kind of resistance they showed in
Peski, and that make sense because in Peski they were not surrounded
and they had the fire support of Ukrainian forces just north and
west of them. This time the cauldron is too deep and the "lid"
too strong. See for yourself.
 |
Debaltsevo
AO as of Tue Feb 17 2010 GMT
|
You
can see that the cauldron "lid" has now closed on
Debaltsevo from the north and that the junta forces are either
surrendering of fleeing south where there is quite literally nothing
for them to do then to wait until they run out of food and ammo.
Bottom line: it's over for the Ukie forces in the Debaltsevo
cauldron.
Amazingly, the freaks in Kiev as still insisting that there is no cauldron but only a "bridgehead". The good news is that apparently nobody buys that nonsense any more and the mothers and wifes of the men caught in the cauldron are trying everything they can to force the Ukie high command to accept the Novorussian offer of an evacuation corridor. The try to protest in front of the General Staff building in Kiev, then the blocked traffic. In a particularly poignant moment one of these women put a megaphone next to a cellphone to amplify the voice of her son/husband calling from the cauldron and announcing that they had for about 3 hours of supplies left.
All this is truly catastrophic news for the junta in Kiev. First, their policy of denying the issue made it impossible for their forces to get out while it was still possible. According to Russian military experts, about half of all the (comparatively) combat capable units of the Ukrainian military have been surrounded in this cauldron and that means that 50% of the Ukrainian army is now gone. Second, while Poroshenko and the junta freaks tried as hard as they could to completely deny the very existence of the cauldron, thanks to the Internet and the Russian TV channels most folks in junta-controlled Ukraine know that they are being lied to. That, in turns, means that the regime is loosing the very little credibility it might have had with the general public. Last and not least, now there will be a lot of very ugly recriminations from all sides of the political spectrum about who is guilty for that latest disaster. I would not be surprised one bit if the Ukrainian death-squads (aka Azov battalion & Co.) decided to storm Kiev for two reasons: a) to take out their rage on the regime and b) because it is safer to storm Kiev than Donetsk. Poroshenko better watch his back now. By the way, rumor (unconfirmed!) has it that he already evacuated his family to Germany.
Novorussian intel is reporting that the junta is trying to assemble three battalion tactical groups and numerous MLRS north of the cauldron to try to rescue the surrounded forces, but this will be too little too late. The Novorussians are used to Ukie artillery and they don't fear their armor or, even less so, infantry. Besides, I bet you that now that they are inside Debaltsevo, the Novorussians will deeply dig in. When is the last time that the junta forces succeeded in an urban assault operation? Exactly.
Bottom line: yet another brilliant victory for the Novorussian forces and yet another humiliating defeat for the junta in Kiev.
The Saker
Amazingly, the freaks in Kiev as still insisting that there is no cauldron but only a "bridgehead". The good news is that apparently nobody buys that nonsense any more and the mothers and wifes of the men caught in the cauldron are trying everything they can to force the Ukie high command to accept the Novorussian offer of an evacuation corridor. The try to protest in front of the General Staff building in Kiev, then the blocked traffic. In a particularly poignant moment one of these women put a megaphone next to a cellphone to amplify the voice of her son/husband calling from the cauldron and announcing that they had for about 3 hours of supplies left.
All this is truly catastrophic news for the junta in Kiev. First, their policy of denying the issue made it impossible for their forces to get out while it was still possible. According to Russian military experts, about half of all the (comparatively) combat capable units of the Ukrainian military have been surrounded in this cauldron and that means that 50% of the Ukrainian army is now gone. Second, while Poroshenko and the junta freaks tried as hard as they could to completely deny the very existence of the cauldron, thanks to the Internet and the Russian TV channels most folks in junta-controlled Ukraine know that they are being lied to. That, in turns, means that the regime is loosing the very little credibility it might have had with the general public. Last and not least, now there will be a lot of very ugly recriminations from all sides of the political spectrum about who is guilty for that latest disaster. I would not be surprised one bit if the Ukrainian death-squads (aka Azov battalion & Co.) decided to storm Kiev for two reasons: a) to take out their rage on the regime and b) because it is safer to storm Kiev than Donetsk. Poroshenko better watch his back now. By the way, rumor (unconfirmed!) has it that he already evacuated his family to Germany.
Novorussian intel is reporting that the junta is trying to assemble three battalion tactical groups and numerous MLRS north of the cauldron to try to rescue the surrounded forces, but this will be too little too late. The Novorussians are used to Ukie artillery and they don't fear their armor or, even less so, infantry. Besides, I bet you that now that they are inside Debaltsevo, the Novorussians will deeply dig in. When is the last time that the junta forces succeeded in an urban assault operation? Exactly.
Bottom line: yet another brilliant victory for the Novorussian forces and yet another humiliating defeat for the junta in Kiev.
The Saker
Ukrainian soldiers ordered
to break out "on their own"
Junta troops taken prisoner at Debaltsevo
17 February, 2015
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
Fighting around Debaltsevo escalated during the second half of the day, according to DPR. “The situation has grown more complex. The level of shelling from the outside of the cauldron has increased. UAF moved against Logvinovo to break a corridor into Debaltsevo,” DPR Ministry of Defense representative Eduard Basurin announced on Tuesday.
He added that DPR forces do not respond to provocations but resist enemy offensive actions. According to Basurin, the militia had established contact with the Ukrainian military and are holding the first meeting of the Joint Control and Coordination Center.
Apart from that, the mothers of Ukrainian soldiers surrounded in Debaltsevo say that troops there received orders to abandon their defensive positions and equipment and attempt to exit the encirclement in small groups. They say command and control has been completely lost, which means the soldiers are on their own. This became known to several mothers who established telephone contact with their sons. On February 17th the relatives of the soldiers are holding a spontaneous meeting at the Ministry of Defense in Kiev.
J.Hawk’s Comment:
So it’s clear that the Debaltsevo cauldron is crumbling, it’s only a question of how many Ukrainian soldiers will manage to exit it. Some no doubt will, but others will become prisoners--there are reports that some 300 junta troops surrendered in Debaltsevo alone so far. But whatever equipment they brought with them to Debaltsevo is going to fall into the hands of Novorossia’s army.
These were the best units the Ukrainian army had. Let’s not forget the “fourth wave of mobilization” had only just begun, so the forces at Debaltsevo were the remnants of the regular, pre-civil war Ukrainian military or the survivors of the campaigns of 2014. For all the problems with the most recent wave of mobilization, the Kiev junta can count on a trickle of replacements. But the heavy equipment is for all intents and purposes irreplaceable. Once these tanks, BMPs, artillery are gone, they are gone for good, and it would take a long time to bring the Ukrainian military back to the state it was in only two months ago.
Обстановка в Дебальцево резко осложнилась во второй половине дня, сообщают в ДНР. Об этом пишет «Интерфакс».
«Обстановка в Дебальцево осложнилась. Cиловики увеличили количество обстрелов с внешнего кольца окружения Дебальцево. Украинские военные выдвинулись в Логвиново, чтобы пробить коридор в Дебальцево», - заявил во вторник журналистам представитель Минобороны ДНР Эдуард Басурин.
Он добавил, что силы ДНР не поддаются на провокации и отвечают на наступательные действия. По словам Басурина,ополченцы вступили в контакты с украинскими военными и впервые проводят совещание Совместного центра по контролю и координации.
Между тем, как рассказывают журналистам матери военнослужащих, окруженных в Дебальцево, бойцам поступил приказ бросать свои опорные пункты и технику и малыми группами самостоятельно выходить из окружения. По их словам, управление войсками полностью утрачено, и солдатам дан приказ пробиваться из окружения самим. Об этом стало известно нескольким матерям, дозвонившимся до своих сыновей, - 17 февраля родственники бойцов проводят стихийный митинг у здания Министерства обороны в Киеве.
Ukrainian
General Staff Confirms Debaltsevo Force Collapse
2/17/201
2/17/2017
Translated
from Russian by J.Hawk
Earlier
today the Russian Spring reported that, according to the
information from the relatives of UAF troops located in the
vicinity of Debaltsevo, the chain of command has completely broken
down and the troops were issued orders to break out of the cauldron
on their own. However, several Ukrainian media immediately denied
the reports, claiming it was panic-mongering.
However,
only an hour ago the acting spokesperson for the Ukrainian General
Staff Vladislav Seleznev confirmed this information during a live
interview on the TV channel 112, saying that DPR units were
assaulting the UAF base-camp at Debaltsevo, and that the
headquarters for all UAF forces there has been destroyed.
Oddly
enough, Seleznev would not confirm that the Ukrainian forces are in
a cauldron. But he did not deny it either.
J.Hawk’s
Comment: So it’s coming to an end. It’s only a
matter of how many troops make it out alive. But the loss of
equipment, combined with earlier losses here and everywhere, put
into question the UAF’s ability to conduct large-scale operations
for a long time to come. The days of “Victory” have come to an
end. The days of “Treason” are only beginning… Poroshenko and
others were able to avoid reckoning for the earlier Ilovaysk
debacle apparently only by promising a rematch. They seem to have
lost that one too, and Round 3 does not seem in the cards. But
Round 2 is the only thing kept all the different factions of the
very fragile "pro-European" junta together.
"Our
HQ has fled, we are facing annihilation"--Junta battalion
commander's frantic call on live TV
http://fortruss.blogspot.co.nz/2015/02/our-hq-has-fled-we-are-facing.html
2/17/2015
Translated
from Russian by J.Hawk
Ukrainian
troops are holding defense in strongpoints in the vicinity of
Debaltsevo. There is street fighting in the city against Russian
soldiers [sic] and Kadyrovites [sic].
This
is what “Gross,” the deputy commander of the 25th Kievan Rus
battalion, which is located near Debaltsevo, said during a phone call
broadcast live by the TV news channel 24.
“There
is street fighting in Debaltsevo. The enemy is using Russian
Federation [sic] special operations units and Kadyrovites [sic] to
storm Debaltsevo. They control 90% of it. Our forces are defending
strongpoints. The sector HQ and the sector commander have abandoned
us, they do not control the situation, they don’t know where are
troops are,” said “Gross.”
He
noted that his troops need immediate help. They tried to reach the
General Staff several times, but there has been no reaction.
“Our
troops are facing annihilation,” said the deputy battalion
commander.
“They
are searching for the sector commander. Nobody knows where he is,”
he added.
We
note that earlier the General Staff announced there is fighting in
the streets of Debaltsevo, and that the terrorists [sic] are not
allowing OSCE observers to reach the town. Part of the town was
captured by the bandits [sic].
The
counter-terrorist [sic] operation HQ spokesperson Anatoliy Stelmakh
said that the militants [sic] have captured several buildings in
Debaltsevo.
J.Hawk’s
Comment: This is a report from Newsdaily.com.ua,
which is a Kiev junta-supporting Ukrainian news outlet. The
magnitude of the Debaltsevo Debacle is becoming more obvious with
every passing minute…
The
“sector commander” referred to in the report is in fact the
commander of the entire Debaltsevo grouping, since that was one of
the sectors of the front facing Novorossia, in other words, a fairly
senior officer who is now nowhere to be found.
Ukrainian
troops surrender by the hundreds
Translated
from Russian by J.Hawk
"Ukrainian
punitive troops are surrendering in large numbers. Journalists have
filmed the surrender of one of the punitive units in the Debaltsevo
cauldron. More than 70 men laid down their arms to save their lives
and surrendered to LPR People’s Militia. All punitive troops who
lay down their arms and cease resistance will receive hot food and
warm clothing, as well as medical aid if they are wounded. The main
reward for their conscience and their refusal to continue the war is
that their lives will be spared.”
Donetsk
Forces Ready to Withdraw Artillery Wherever Kiev Observes Ceasefire
Sputnik News
17
February, 2015
Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) militia is ready to withdraw artillery from the areas, where the ceasefire is observed by Kiev forces, a deputy commander of DPR militia Eduard Basurin said Tuesday.
"We are ready to start voluntary DPR artillery withdrawal from the calm areas along the contact line, where Kiev forces adhere to the Minsk agreements," Basurin told reporters.
Earlier in the day, a DPR leader's press secretary said that Kiev is still firing, so Donetsk has not pulled back its artillery.
The self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) began pulling back their heavy artillery Monday evening. The weapons will be returned to the frontline if Kiev restarts shelling, the LPR leader Igor Plotnitsky stressed.
Weaponry withdrawal at midnight on Tuesday was stipulated in the deal agreed on by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany last week during negotiations in Minsk. Ukrainian Army has to withdraw weaponry from the existing line of contact, while the militias have to pull artillery back from the line agreed on last September. Ceasefire, constitutional changes in Ukraine and prisoner swaps are also included in the agreement.
Overall, the ceasefire is holding, in spite of particular violations, the conflicting sides said.
OSCE
Monitors Report Withdrawal of Kiev Weaponry From Contact Line
The
OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) observed Ukrainian
Armed Forces military vehicles moving away from the line of contact,
according to the mission's report.
17
February, 2015
MOSCOW,
(Sputnik) — The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM)
has observed the withdrawal of Kiev forces' military vehicles from
the line of contact in eastern Ukraine, the mission said in its daily
report published Tuesday.
"The
SMM on two occasions observed Ukrainian Armed Forces military
vehicles moving away from the line of contact," the report
reads.
The
withdrawal of heavy artillery is one of the provisions stipulated by
the agreement worked out by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany
and France on February 12.
The
agreement was then signed by envoys from Kiev, the Donetsk and
Luhansk people's republics (DPR and LPR), Moscow and the OSCE.
Earlier
on Tuesday, deputy commander of DPR militia Eduard Basurin said that
the DPR militia was ready to withdraw artillery from areas along the
line of contact where Kiev forces observed the ceasefire. LPR leader
Igor Plotnitsky said that the republic began pulling back its heavy
artillery on Monday evening.
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