Tuesday 10 February 2015

Ukraine civil war - update 02/09/2015

Semenchenko confirms last road to Debaltsevo cut




Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Fighting continues around Logvinovo on the Debaltsevo-Artemovsk road. The enemy managed to bring up reserves. Both sides have lost armored vehicles. Our artillery is working well. The staff scum, who slept through the enemy incursion into Logvinovo [original says Loskutovka, but Semenchenko later clarifies he meant Logvinovo] and who started to react only after lunch, ought to be shot. Our suddenly breaking-down tanks are a separate question…

So, in brief. The separatists have cut the road in Logvinovo.

UAF and the Donbass battalion have retreated to their initial positions. The rest—not suitable for Facebook.

Goddamn strategists!

J.Hawk’s Comment: Semenchenko confirms reports from several other sources, namely that the Debaltsevo salient is now officially a Debaltsevo pocket, or cauldron, if you will, in which UAF units are physically encircled. There is not a single way into or out of Debaltsevo that does not lead through Novorossia army positions. Given the configuration of the front line, any UAF attempt to recapture Logvinovo would be exposed to a Novorossia army counterattack from three sides, which is probably the reason for the withdrawal that Semenchenko notes. 

This is not the first time that Ukrainian armored vehicles developed problems at a crucial time--it has been reported by Ukrainian sources that the counter-attack to retake the Donetsk Airport from the militia failed because so many vehicles broke down on the way to the objective. Is this a maintenance problem, or are the units in question simply refusing orders?

As noted before, Novorossia forces could have done this a long time ago. They were holding off in order to give Poroshenko a chance for a face-saving out at the Munich conference. Instead Poroshenko chose to present his new “Watch Russian Passports Appear and Disappear” magic trick. So now new “facts on the ground” are being created on the eve of the “Normandy format” meeting scheduled for Wednesday, February 11.



What is the Debaltsevo cauldron hiding?




February 8, 2015
Newsli.ru



What's inside in the Debaltsevo cauldron? Why did the leaders of Europe rush to Russia?

Admittedly, when "the mousetrap" began to shut, everyone began to shout about the need... the need of what? Oh, about the need to follow the Minsk agreements..

The "Debaltsevo cauldron" was intended as a "Debaltsevo springboard" to start a victorious attack on DPR and LPR. In this regard, huge quantities of weapons, ammunition and food was brought to this area. This was confirmed by the militia after the capture of Uglegorsk. They got arsenals overflowing with weapons and warehouses with American food.

To foolishly lose such volume of weapons and "illegal American aid" for tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, and then to beg for the "ultimate weapon to defeat Putin" - this is the height of idiocy and helplessness of senior command.

Likely for this reason, to rehabilitate themselves in the eyes of sponsors, the Ukrainian offensive started today on all fronts at once, and with a simultaneous request for a truce...

It is a madhouse, and not a government and a General staff! They are so unpredictable, that honestly, it's laughable! And yet, there are theories that in the arsenals of Debaltsevo one will find phosphorous and cluster shells and bombs, banned by international conventions, but used by the Ukrainian armed forces during the shelling of cities and towns. This could be evidence of war crimes...
"Germany reserves the right to impose sanctions on Ukraine"--Steinmeier 


Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s announcement that sanctions against Kiev are possible cause a furious reaction by the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The Foreign Minister Steinmeier made this statement in an interview with the ARD TV channel.
Steinmeier said that if no political decision is reached in Ukraine, the German government reserves the right to “act decisively against the Ukrainian leadership, up to and including sanctions”.
Germany’s ambassador to Ukraine Christoph Weil was forced to have a discussion with the Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Andrey Olefirov due to Steinmeier’s statement.
Ukrainian diplomats are very sensitive to Western countries’ position on the ongoing crisis in the country. However, that sensitivity is very one-sided. In December Ukraine’s ambassador to the EU Andrey Eliseev similarly strongly reacted to Steinmeier’s statement that Ukraine is not wanted in NATO.
Nobody can prevent Kiev from joining NATO!”  was the Ukrainian diplomat’s reply. Germans, as usual, took no offense, and nobody summoned Ukraine’s ambassador to the German MFA.
J.Hawk’s Comment: Let’s not forget Steinmeier’s statement was made against the background of Angela Merkel’s visit to the US. It would seem that everyone knows what Poroshenko must do. It would seem that we now know what was agreed to between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande in Moscow, namely the federalization of Ukraine. It's a solution that is consistent with the interests of both Russia and Germany, as the two countries in effect decide the zones of their respective zones of economic influence. It also has the benefit (from everyone's perspective except the junta's) of cutting the junta out of the equation to a significant degree. 

Poroshenko, for his part, is still insisting that the situation should revert to the original (and never implemented) Minsk agreement. “Finis Ucrainae” is still the most likely scenario, unless something snaps in Kiev. That Western leaders are, for the first time, suggesting the possibility of Kiev being sanctioned suggests Poroshenko is in process of graduating from "disappointment" to "liability."

NATO planes land in Kharkov every night







Translated by Kristina Rus

Kharkov Anti-Maidan Facebook page reports:

"At 02:06 AM a NATO Hercules plane landed at the Kharkov airport. According to eyewitnesses, they land at the Kharkov airport every night since February 5th."


В Харьковском аэропорту ночью в 02:06 приземлился натовский самолёт Геркулес. По свидетельствам очевидцев, с 5го февраля они приземляются в харьковском аэропорту каждую ночь.


Kiev Forces Cause Explosion at Chemical Factory in Donetsk – Officials

Ukrainian officials have informed on their social network accounts that a powerful explosion has occurred at a chemical factory in the city of Donetsk in southeastern Ukraine as a result of artillery shelling by Kiev forces.



9 February, 2015

DONETSK (Sputnik) – A powerful explosion has occurred at a chemical factory in the city of Donetsk in southeastern Ukraine as a result of artillery shelling by Kiev forces, Ukrainian officials have informed on their social network accounts.

The explosion occurred late Sunday night.

Borys Filatov, former deputy governor of Dnipropetrovsk, and current member of the Ukrainian parliament, Verkhovna Rada, wrote on Facebook that the same "heroes" who had cut the "aviation of LPR [self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic]" have shelled Donetsk from the Smerch rocket launchers.


Meanwhile, Konstantin Dolgoff, co-chairman of the People's Front of Novorossiya (united front established last spring by the self-proclaimed people's republics in Ukraine's southeast) said on his Facebook page that the explosion occurred at a chemical plant in Donetsk.

The plant had already been targeted by shelling, in September and November of last year.

Fighting between Kiev forces and independence supporters continues in Ukraine's southeast, despite the truce reached at a meeting in the Belarusian capital Minsk in September. Clashes between the two sides intensified at the start of this year.

Donetsk is one of the hot spots of violence, which started last spring, when Kiev launched a military operation against residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions who refused to recognize the new coup-installed government.




How rebels sabotaged Minsk Talks






Vladimir Suchan interviewed


Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine leaders to meet over Ukraine crisis on Wednesday







"Social warning" from Russia: we are ready for war; are you?





One of the most striking differences between the Russian and Western media is the fact that the topic of a possible war is constantly discussed in the former and almost never in the latter.  In Russia, the main news shows discuss the risks of war, as do a lot of well-known personalities, and on talk-shows this is a recurrent topic.  Even Putin recently had to declare that he did not believe that a war was likely.  It is as if both Russia and the West were like two trains on the same tracks, going at full speed towards each other but with one big difference: the western "train" is steaming forward with its eyes closed, while the Russian train is going forward with its eyes wide open.

The second big difference is the rage and determination which are expressed by Russians of all walks of life.  The most often heard sentence now is "Русские не сдаются" (Russians don't surrender).  Russians find it amazing and absolutely crazy that the western "leaders" have apparently convinced themselves that the Russians will "blink" and let Obama scare them into not standing up for the Donbass.  The mood is "if you really want a fight, then we will give you one".

One example if in the Russian social media and the blogosphere.  Today, a reader posted a link to a Russian video (thanks!) which I want to post here and I will add a video I saw earlier.

Please watch these videos and don't be too quick to dismiss them as irrelevant.  They are an expression of the mood of a big part of the Russian society which has mentally already entered what I would call a "war mode".  To ignore these "social warning" would be a huge mistake.  I have been saying that over and over again, Russia is ready for war.  It gives me no pleasure to say that (actually it scares me), but I think that this warning must be circulated as widely as possible: Russia will not "blink" and Russia will not surrender.  Russia will not attack first - that is utter nonsense - but if she is attacked, she will strike back with everything she has.

The Saker







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