Thursday, 8 February 2018

Global tempratures to exceed Paris Agreement limits?

Because of the sleight-of-hand (and basic fraud) in calculating global temperatures I suspect that we are already
above the limit set byte Paris agreement.

See Kevin Hester's article below.

Global temperatures could pass limit set by Paris climate deal within 5 years


1 February, 2018

Global temperatures could surpass a limit set by the Paris climate agreement within the next five years, according to a new forecast by British scientists.

At least one year in the next five could exceed the threshold the deal set of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels, according to the forecast from the Met Office, the United Kingdom's national weather service. It's now likely temperatures will exceed 1 degrees Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, as soon as 2022.

"It is the first time that such high values have been highlighted within these forecasts," the Met Office said in a statement.

The Paris agreement aims to limit warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius by gradually reducing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, which come from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas.


Global average temperatures already have neared the 1 degree Celsius mark over the past three years. That combined with continued warming from greenhouse gases and natural variations in temperatures means it's possible for the world to temporarily exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius mark in the next five years, said Stephen Belcher, chief scientist at the Met Office.

We are now starting to see a small but real chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5 degree Celsius level, but we should remember that the Paris agreement is about the global climate reaching this level over a longer-term average, rather than just a temporary excursion," Doug Smith of the Met Office Hadley Centre said.

Last year was the world's hottest non-El Niño year on record, both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA reported in January. El Niño is a natural warming of ocean water in the Pacific that boosts global temperatures.

Both agencies said the past four years have been the hottest since records began in the late 1800s. The most recent cooler-than-average year was 1976. Since then, the globe has experienced a stretch of 41 consecutive warmer-than-average years.

These predictions show that 1.5 degree Celsius events are now looming over the horizon," said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office. The warmest years are likely to coincide with a large El Niño event in the Pacific, he added.

The Met Office’s long-range global warming forecast is updated each year.









Global temperature anomalies relative to 1951 to 1980b average. Ignoring all of the previous rise. Nearly 200 yrs of denial

Baseline Temperature dishonesty at the Edge of Extinction


May 1, 2017


As we get closer to the collapse of the biosphere, I have been noticing a huge distortion, if not outright lying, in the use of baseline figures for the planetary temperature increase that humans have caused with our crack like and sadly terminal addiction to carbon.

“The Industrial Revolution, which took place from the 18th to 19th centuries, was a period during which predominantly agrarian, rural societies in Europe and America became industrial and urban. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, which began in Britain in the late 1700s, manufacturing was often done in people’s homes, using hand tools or basic machines. Industrialization marked a shift to powered, special-purpose machinery, factories and mass production.”
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION History.com

In 1698, Thomas Savery, an engineer and inventor, patented a machine that could effectively draw water from flooded mines using steam pressure. Savery used principles set forth by Denis Papin, a French-born British physicist who invented the pressure cooker. Papin’s ideas surrounding a cylinder and piston steam engine had not previously been used to build a working engine, but by 1705, Savery had turned Papin’s ideas into a useful invention.” additional information here; Who Invented the Steam Engine?

So in 1698 Thomas Savery had a patent on a steam engine powered by coal and this warming influence on the global mean temperature is casually ignored by the much vaunted 
IPCC

The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycleDuring this cycle, the Panel will produce three Special Reports, a Methodology Report on national greenhouse gas inventories and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).The 43rd Session of the IPCC held in April 2016 agreed that the AR6 Synthesis Report would be finalized in 2022 in time for the first UNFCCC global stocktake when countries will review progress towards their goal of keeping global warming to well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C. The three Working Group contributions to AR6 will be finalized in 2021.”


So the IPCC plans to reassess the 1.5C and 2C Voluntary targets in 2021! Personally I shall be surprised if there are any humans on the planet in 2021 considering we are now in 
early stage runaway and for them to pretend that we will be below either of those temperatures in 2021 is a monumental dereliction of duty in my humble opinion, especially now that our oceans have reached carbon saturation and are now out-gassing carbon instead of being carbon sinks. It appears all the ‘heavy lifting’ that our oceans have been doing has drawn to a close. Yet another feedback loop/ tipping point crossed.

From the good but very conservative Christian and  Hilary Clinton supporting climate blogger!!!! Robertscribbler

“Temperature averages for 2016 are so far about 1.22 C above the 1951 to 1980 baseline or about 1.44 C above 1880s averages.”

Scribbler has us in 2016 at 1.44C above the 1880 average  and Thomas Savery et al has been burning coal since 1698! What happened to that 182 years of emissions?

Admittedly the emissions in the early days of burning coal and later oil were low but ignoring them is in breach of the 
“Precautionary Principal”

The purpose of this blog post is to get my readers to question every article that quotes warming levels that ignore emissions before some arbitrary  date.
Common people, everything is at stake, lets keep these shylocks honest until the lights go out. Question Everything, brace for imminent impact.


No comments:

Post a Comment