demand is expected to grow by about 25 percent by 2040, according to
a recently published report from ExxonMobil.
report projects that
energy demand in the coming decades will be driven by China, India
and other non-OECD countries while demand and emissions in the United
States, Europe and other OECD nations are expected to decline,
even as economic output grows.
is a significant increase, but would have been far higher (exceeding
110 percent) if we did not foresee steep improvements in energy
efficiency across all demand sectors,” the report said.
expects China and India to account for almost half of
projected global demand growth to 2040 while Brazil, Mexico, South
Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand and
Indonesia will account for about 30 percent of projected demand
report forecasts that global liquids output will rise to 112
million barrels a day in 2040, up from 93 million barrels per day in
2014, enough output to meet projected demand growth.
gas liquid production is expected to expand “significantly”
through 2040, with deepwater natural gas liquid production forecast
to grow by about 70 percent from 2014 to 2040.
is expected to remain the top energy source in the world to 2040, but
the report said that there will be a “marked shift toward cleaner
fuels, particularly natural gas.”
oil and gas are projected to meet about one-fifth of the world’s
energy needs by 2040.
expect that oil, natural gas and coal – the three fuels that
together built the modern economy – will continue to meet almost 80
percent of the world’s energy needs through 2040,” the report
demand for oil and other liquids is projected to grow by about
20 percent from 2014 to 2040 while demand for natural gas is
poised to rise by 50 percent during the same period.
expect 40 percent of the projected growth in global energy demand
from 2014 to 2040 will be met by natural gas,” the report said.
and renewable energy sources are likely to account for nearly 40
percent of global energy demand growth 2014 to 2040.
majority of oil and gas exports through 2040 will likely go
to the Asia Pacific region, where demand will outstrip local
America is now on track become a net exporter around 2020 and
the United States is expected to become a net liquids exporter around
2025, the report said.
production growth and growing demand in the Asia Pacific region will
boost that region’s net imports by more than 50
percent between 2014 and 2040.
is likely to remain the second-largest oil importing region, with
imports meeting 75 percent of demand by 2040,” the report
exports from the Middle East should continue to grow as production
outpaces demand in the region, allowing the Middle East to
remain the largest exporting region in the world.
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