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The Guardian leads the media in the call to war
The
Guardian issues an editorial arguing for doubling down in Ukraine
with a (greater) Western supply of weapons to a Putsch regime bombing
its own cities and mass murdering its own people into submitting to
its openly West-backed violent overthrow of the legitimate
democratically elected government less than a year ago.
Because,
the Guardian's editors tell us, to fail to drag Ukraine, kicking and
screaming, into the West's geopolitical orbit would at this juncture.
be a "disaster" for "the European project". WTF
that is a euphemism for....
- Mark Sleboda
The Guardian view on the Ukraine conflict: Swift action needed - Editorial
European
leaders must be prepared to back fresh peace talks with credible
threats. While supplying arms would be dangerous, it is time to
consider severing Russia’s financial links
5
February, 2015
On
the eastern rims of Europe, a bad situation is getting nastier. The
war in Ukraine, which has already claimed over 5,000 lives in nine
months, has been threatening to take on larger dimensions.
Pro-Russian separatists have been on the offensive in a big way, for
the first time since August 2014. Their objective is to carve out a
corridor to the Black Sea port of Mariupol, potentially opening a
land bridge to Crimea, which Russia has already annexed. None of this
would be possible without the increasing direct backing of the
Russian military.
It
is an appalling situation, which European leaders have too often
dealt with by wishing it away. It is, then, to be welcomed that
François Hollande and Angela Merkel on Thursday headed for Kiev,
where the US secretary of state, John Kerry, had already arrived, to
invest political capital in a new peace initiative. It must, of
course, be hoped that subsequent talks in Moscow will bear fruit –
hoped, but not assumed. There have been several seemingly promising
diplomatic openings previously, most recently the Minsk accord. That
multi-point plan to end the war was solemnly signed by all sides last
September, but has since been systematically violated by all sides
too – and the conflict has intensified.
Some
will argue that the only reason why it may be possible to engage with
the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, at this juncture is because of
the recent noises coming out of Washington about delivering weaponry
to Ukraine. Diplomacy always need to be backed by something, and on
the face of it, supplying munitions might seem like the obvious
threat to use. All else has failed to stop Mr Putin and his allies on
the ground, so it may take guns and anti-tank missiles to do so. In
1995, western military support to Slobodan Milošević’s
adversaries in Bosnia helped force the Serbian dictator into peace
talks.
This
argument for standing ready to arm Ukraine has one merit, but also
several flaws. The one positive is that it puts some urgency behind
the need to put a stop to Mr Putin’s adventures. The existing mix
of sanctions and on-off diplomacy has become demonstrably
ineffective. Letting the separatists capture more territory could
render the Ukrainian state unviable, a disaster for Europe. Mr
Putin’s power games need disrupting now, since there is no telling
where he will turn next. Moldova? Or the Baltic states, where the
worth of Nato’s security guarantees could be put to a dangerous
test?
But
there are also grave dangers of adding more weapons to a war, the
danger of pouring petrol on to a fire. In a corrupt environment,
replete with militias, there can be no guarantees that the kit will
not fall into the wrong hands. And how do you control escalation? The
Putin regime could easily up the ante, confident that it could call
the west’s bluff well before tensions reached the terrifying
logical extreme of direct nuclear conflict. Arms supplied by the US,
especially, would be fodder for Mr Putin’s propaganda about a war
against “Nato’s foreign legion”. If the crisis requires
stronger action, then this should come from Europe first. After all,
this is a war on European soil. Its consequences go well beyond
Ukraine, undermining the European project itself. Mr Putin seeks to
disrupt the international and economic norms that the EU upholds –
norms that are anathema to a chauvinistic Russian regime.
Europe
does have leverage, if it chooses to use it. Russia may be a
geopolitical giant but its GDP is no bigger than Italy’s. It is
dependent on Europe’s financial structures. Yet next to the
plunging oil price, the EU sanctions thus far have had a virtually
symbolic impact. Cutting Russian banks and companies from the
Belgium-based Swift international transaction system would, by
contrast, impose a serious jolt. It could be done quickly, but then
also rolled rapidly back. It has worked before, against Iran, which
entered nuclear negotiations soon after being banned from Swift in
2012. Many businesses would balk at the costs. But these would surely
be easier to bear than the enduring damage done by a widening war on
the European continent.
Mr
Putin regards the EU as a strategic midget. He will respect it only
when Russia’s predatory oligarchy is confronted with some red
lines. When Mrs Merkel and Mr Hollande head for Moscow, they should
put Swift on the table.
Crimea Cannot Be Blamed for Choosing to Join Russia - Sarkozy
Former
French President Nicolas Sarkozy noted on Saturday that France and
Russia are part of a common European civilization, and that Crimea
cannot be blamed for choosing to join Russia.
Speaking
on Saturday before supporters at the congress of the Union for a
Popular Movement Party (UMP), Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy
played a conciliatory note toward Russia, noting that Crimea could
not be blamed for choosing to leave Ukraine amidst the turmoil of
early 2014.
"We
are part of a common civilization with Russia," Sarkozy, who
serves as the president of the UMP, noted. "The interests of the
Americans with the Russians are not the interests of Europe and
Russia," he noted. The former president added that "we do
not want the revival of a Cold War between Europe and Russia."
With
regard to Crimea's referendum to leave Ukraine and join Russia in
March 2014, Sarkozy noted that "Crimea has chosen Russia, and we
cannot blame it [for doing so]." He added that "we must
find the means to create a peacekeeping force to protect Russian
speakers in Ukraine."
On
Ukraine's hopes to join the European Union, Sarkozy noted that
"Ukraine must preserve its role as a bridge between Europe and
Russia. It is not destined to join the European Union."
On
March 16, 2014, a referendum carried out in Crimea saw a vast
majority of voters choosing to join Russia.
One Year Later, Crimeans Prefer Russia
As
European leaders engage in shuttle diplomacy to still the armed
conflict in eastern Ukraine, Crimea, where the Russian onslaught
began almost a year ago, has become all but forgotten. It isn't the
subject of any talks, and the international sanctions imposed on
Russia for annexing the Ukrainian peninsula are light compared to the
ones stemming from later phases of the conflict. Yet Crimea provides
a key to understanding the crisis and its potential resolution:
Ultimately, it's all about how the people in disputed areas see both
Russia and Ukraine.
Doomsday Watch: Ukrainian government to seize personal savings
By
Da Dzi
Translated
from Russian by J.Hawk
Yatsenyuk
is planning to rob Ukrainians using the “Cyprus Scenario.”
The
Ministry of Finance legislative project “On Ukraine’s Financial
System During the Special Period” contains a number of provisions
concerning individual and corporate bank deposits.
Specifically,
there the following provision: “in the event of a martial law and a
moratorium on disbursement of bank deposits such deposits may be used
in order to satisfy the needs of the state during the special period
by including such a proportion as will be determined by the Cabinet
of Ministers into the state budget.”
The
legislative project also specifies that the deposits which are used
in this manner are added to the national debt, and the owners of the
deposits are issued state bonds. The government will fulfill their
obligations to the bond holders after the special period is finished,
using the national budget. What makes such a law appear necessary is
the possible introduction of the martial law in Ukraine in the event
of an escalation of fighting, but also serious problems with
fulfilling budget obligations due to sharp drop in receipts.
This
bill has already been coordinated with the National Bank, the
Ministry of Economic Development, the National Financial Services
Committee, the MOD, and the MVD.
The
measures being discussed by the Ministry of Finance and the National
Bank in order to stabilize the financial system for the duration of
the special period include both the inclusion of deposits from
existing accounts into the national budget, as well as the so-called
“haircut” using the Cyprus scenario, when deposits above a
certain threshold will be converted into shares in the afflicted
banks for a certain period of time (this is the so-called bank
recapitalization at the expense of the bank customers).
Martial
law in the entire country or several regions may lead to a temporary
confiscation of deposits of all manner of physical and legal subjects
(except for defense industry enterprises). Any deposits larger than
200 thousand hryvnya could be drawn into the process of saving
Ukraine’s finances.
“As
these deposits are being in effect sequestered, any hard currency
deposits will be automatically converted into hryvnya using the
official exchange rate, and will be returned to the owners in the
national currency. Nobody knows what the exchange rate could be at
the time that the deposits are returned.”
Ukrainians,
I am not trying to frighten you. But they are planning to nakedly rob
you. All of you. If you still have any deposits left, withdraw them
as soon as you can. Otherwise you may be too late.
J.Hawk's
Comment: Since no international funding is
forthcoming, it only makes sense for the Ukrainian government to
squeeze every little bit of assets still to be found in their
country. Aside from fostering discontent, it also means that any
future Ukrainian government (one that appears after the "special
period" is over) will be facing impossible financial demands,
both to international institutions and to their own citizens. This is
making Greece look like a paragon of financial health. But it
looks like the Kiev junta has in effect decided to resort to
hostage-taking (except in this case the hostage is the entire
population of the country) in order to get its way: either you give
us what we want, or you will have a failed state in a civil war right
in the middle of Europe. It's doubtful they are doing it at the
behest of Washington, Berlin, or Brussels. It's more the case of
puppets trying to control the puppet-masters.
It's
also interesting that the original article on which this blog entry
is based was published in the Ukrainian media. If Ukrainians needed
any excuses to stage a bank run, they have one now.
Finally, one should ask oneself the question who exactly in Ukraine still has sizable hard currency (i.e., euros or dollars) deposits. The list includes the country's oligarchs and any enterprises which engage in large-scale import and export operations. Ultimately it's their wealth that the proposed law would target and, frankly, annihilate, because Ukrainian government bonds do not seem like the safest vehicle for preserving wealth these days. No wonder Kolomoysky and Baloga are suddenly in favor of a referendum to determine the fate of Eastern Ukraine...
Finally, one should ask oneself the question who exactly in Ukraine still has sizable hard currency (i.e., euros or dollars) deposits. The list includes the country's oligarchs and any enterprises which engage in large-scale import and export operations. Ultimately it's their wealth that the proposed law would target and, frankly, annihilate, because Ukrainian government bonds do not seem like the safest vehicle for preserving wealth these days. No wonder Kolomoysky and Baloga are suddenly in favor of a referendum to determine the fate of Eastern Ukraine...
Ukraine Passes Law to Shoot Deserters
A fighter jet flies above as Ukrainian soldiers sit on an armoured personnel carrier in Kramatorsk, in eastern Ukraine April 16, 2014. MARKO DJURICA/ REUTERS
http://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-passes-law-shoot-deserters-304911
The
Ukrainian parliament has approved a motion to allow commanders in the
armed forces to fire at army deserters and use force against
servicemen for “negligence” or “drinking alcohol” while on
duty.
The
motion was discussed in a session yesterday afternoon, with 260 MPs
passing it out of a total 320, according to Ukrainian news agency
Unian - surpassing the necessary 226 votes needed to pass the bill.
It will now be added as an amendment to the current Ukrainian
legislation on the regulations imposed on commanders' actions toward
their charges.
The
act will allow commanders to “utilise drastic measures” - defined
by the UN as the use of force and firearms - towards officers caught
acting “negligently” or in violation to the code of conduct
during combat duty or while they are on border patrol. The new act
adds “drinking alcoholic or low-alcoholic beverages” while on
duty as an offence punishable by force.......
Junta
Counter-offensive
From
Vladimir Suchan, via Facebook
There
is a talk that the Kiev junta has launched an all-out
counteroffensive along the whole frontline of the Donetsk People's
Republic as of today morning, while Moscow, Germany, and France are
being engaged in an attempt to put together a new "implementation"
agreement on the Minsk agreements, which is to be finalized tomorrow
through a conference call, which would include Kiev, but exclude the
Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics.
I
saw the first mention of the counteroffensive from Strelkov
here:
But since till then I saw no other confirmation I was holding on the
information, while noting the eerie silence or lack of battlefield
updates on Rozhin's site and elsewhere from today
Update from Debaltseve Frontlines - 6th February
One man buried his entire family
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