Facebook discussion

Putin and Ukraine – a Facebook discussion

Seemorerocks

I woke up this morning to this missive from Michael Green on Facebook. I repoduce it along with my reply:

Vladimir Suchan, in the following quote, reprises the whole Ukraine mess, including the Saker mess, the Nazi mess and the Vladimir Putin mess. It is most appropriate that this definitive utterance should have been made on the eve of a stern warning and a visit to Moscow by Mama Merkel herself:

"The strategy of supposedly trying to win a conflict and war by "avoiding" it has been tried. It led to the defeat of the Soviet Union and its demise, and then post-Soviet Russia has been following this strategy more or less since then. The same strategy was also used by Yanukovich and led to his ouster and brought into power Nazi oligarchs who, thus in control of all the instruments of one of the largest states in Europe, mobilize and Nazify Ukraine against the Russians and Russia. The same strategy also made Ukraine a NATO proxy and anti-Russian frontline state. In fact, that Russia should "avoid" defending itself has been the real and actual US and NATO strategy, which people like Saker and those who buy into this promote--some consciously, others unconsciously. The idea that one can win war by avoiding it or waiting until the enemy wishfully collapses on his own or kills oneself for the lack of better things to do has been the most monumental piece of wisdom invented since the time Aristotle argued seemingly in earnest that slavery also serves the slave and is in his best interest. I wonder how it would sound, to repeat what Strelkov once ironically also noted, that, if Stalin followed the same strategy heralded now by such friends of Russia as the utmost brilliance and acme of strategy, he too ought to have ordered that the Soviet Union should not fight Hitler's Germany but let Nazi Germany collapse on its own for it too would be saddled with Europe and "Ukraine [as its] economic basket case" and that it would have been 'better for Hitler [US/EU] to waste resources on a perennial unstable government' rather than having oneself that 'headache, with no net security benefit to' the Soviet Union or Russia.

"Otherwise, Putin did not even say that the junta is fascist [much less Nazi]. . . . The farthest Putin went in this regard was just after the Odessa massacre when he said that if what happened in Odessa did happen, then the Kiev government 'might be really a junta.' But then few days later (May 7?) he declared that his main goal for Ukraine at that moment was 'to create the best possible conditions for [the junta's] presidential elections.'"

This is my “off-the-cuff” reply

Generally, I don’t have the time or the inclination to partake in the back-and-forward arguments about who is “right” about Putin etc. In fact I have always seen the “protaganists” as ideally being allies in the struggle against Empire. But sometimes I have to wonder. I think Givi is probably right when he disparages those who sit behind a keyboard instead of taking part in the struggle.

In chronicling this I have those sources that I trust more than others – You Tube sights, such as South Front, Anti-Maidan (and they’re back, by the way), Fort Russ, Russia Insider, Dmitry Orlov, and – yes, emphatically and unapologetically – the Saker.

Generally, I prefer Russian sources, or at least foreigners, like Mark Sleboda or Peter Lavelle, who live in Russia and have some understanding of the milieu they live in.

Something that the Saker, as well as Dmitry Orlov, have both pointed out about the Russian psyche is that Russians will never argue or threaten their enemy and always negotiate with them, even while they totally distrust them. The response will be sudden, and, from the point of view of the enemy, always from left field.

This goes right back to behaviour in the school yard. So too, does American behaviour, which is always very noisy, very opinionated and sometimes threatening. I have more than once noticed this behaviour in Americans that I have sparred with - they don’t like to be disagreed with! Perhaps they (as with the rest of us) need to ask, as suggested by Guy McPherson how far they have really “walked away from Empire”. More self-reflection and less judging of others.

As for Vladimir Suchan, I have the greatest respect for his efforts to chronicle events as well as for his experience as a Czech diplomat. I do not follow closely what he writes, partially because of lack of time an energy and also because what I have read does not “resonate”

I, however, cannot let the first statement, "The strategy of supposedly trying to win a conflict and war by "avoiding" it has been tried. It led to the defeat of the Soviet Union and its demise” go without questioning. Arguing that “avoiding” war led to the demise of the Soviet Union. What is he referring to? Stalin’s Nazi-Soviet Pact (forced because of refusal of the west to join an anti-fascist coalition and weakness of the USSR) or perhaps Brezhnev’s detente? With Yanukhovich, he might be right, but what would the outcome have been if he HAD ordered the Berkut to fire on the people on the Maidan, not all of whom were fascists or ultra-nationalists?

I’m not sure what he (or you) expect – a triumphant march of the Russian army into Lvov? Is Putin to act as the tyrant they think he is in the West and arrest (and perhaps shoot?) oppositionists or Fifth Columists?. He has 80% support in the population but his support amongst the ruling elite is estimated at 50% so he acts under constraints and has to walk an narrow line.

I know people like Mark Sleboda (who has lost relatives in the war) is as frustrated as hell about the inability of the Kremlin to take decisive action. But I’m sure he also has a good understanding of the nuances, as does Strelkov.

Who is your alternative? Do you want a Maidan on the Manezh in Moscow? Do you really want to take us all out in a thermonuclear war?

In general, I would call for less yapping from the sidelines and more reflection and self-reflection.

The “should-be” has never availed us of anything, and never will.

There is only the “what is”