I am uncertain what will eventuate in the next 48 hours. We are right in the firing line here where we live, only 200m from the river which will bring water down from the rain-drenched Tararua mountaiins.
They are talking about a 6 metre (18 foot) swell on the Kapiti Coast, just north of the capital.
In addition to damaging winds and flooding there may be electricity outages – so I may be offline for some time.
Cyclone Gita remains a category 2 tropical storm in the Tasman Sea, it’s a long way south for a tropical cyclone and shows little signs of weakening very much as it makes landfall in New Zealand on Tuesday evening. Gita will likely be equal to a higher end Cat 1 tropical cyclone as makes landfall, we think around the north western corner of the South Island.
Severe winds could be damaging and destructive within 200kms of the centre of the storm. However peak winds will ease fairly quickly into Wednesday. Torrential rain will also be an issue and could lead to flooding in the upper South Island and some eastern and central areas too. Wellington is also exposed to heavy rain tonight and across Tuesday.
Here’s the latest tracking and maps as of Monday afternoon New Zealand time. Please note this could still change.
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