Seemorerocks: The Fourth Turning may mean that crisis may last through the 2020's

Tuesday 10 September 2019

The Fourth Turning may mean that crisis may last through the 2020's

Last week Rick Wiles and Doc Burkhardt of TruNews discussed the events in Hong Kong in the context of theories of historical cycles. We are in the midst of a combined social unrest/war cycle that is seen as ending in the 2020's.

Danger Zone: Cycles point to

extreme global instability in

2020s

Here is some background on the various theories.

First, one called the Fourth Turning,

The Fourth Turning: Why American 'Crisis' May Last Until 2030

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

The Strauss–Howe generational theory, also known as the Fourth Turning theory or simply the Fourth Turning, which was created by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American history.

According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) in which a new social, political, and economic climate exists. Turnings tend to last around 20–22 years. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 90 years, although some saecula have lasted longer).

The theory states that after every Saeculum, a crisis recurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which ultimately creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.

Strauss and Howe laid the groundwork for their theory in their 1991 book Generations, which discusses the history of the United States as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584.^[1] In their 1997 book The Fourth Turning, the authors expanded the theory to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras in American history.^[2] They have since expanded on the concept in a variety of publications. It was developed to describe the history of the United States, including the Thirteen Colonies and their British antecedents, and this is where the most detailed research has been done. However, the authors have also examined generational trends elsewhere in the world and described similar cycles in several developed countries.^[3]

In a 2009 article published in The Chronicle of Higher Education, Eric Hoover called the authors pioneers in a burgeoning industry of consultants, speakers and researchers focused on generations.^[4] Academic response to the theory has been mixed—some applauding Strauss and Howe for their "bold and imaginative thesis" and others criticizing the theory.^[5]^[4] Criticism has focused on the lack of rigorous empirical evidence for their claims,^[6] and the authors' view that generational groupings are far more powerful than other social groupings such as economic class, race, sex, religion and political parties.^[7]

According to The New York Times, many academic historians dismiss the work of Strauss & Howe as "about as scientific as astrology or a Nostradamus text."^[8]

Strauss-Howe generational theory has been described by some historians and journalists as a "pseudoscience"^[9]^[10]^[11] and "an elaborate historical horoscope that will never withstand scholarly scrutiny."^[12]^[13]^[14]

The second is from author Charles Hugh Smith who brings Peak Oil into the analysis.

This researcher, Peter Turchin, is taken seriously by mainstream media.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/beyond-the-false-dawn-global-crisis-2020-2022-2011-2?r=US&IR=T&fbclid=IwAR2ZAV20fgz4kIoW1_NkcFFAhQFOrPgj11r89_SAp9-gpK_0iFhMuA-u_w8

https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a?fbclid=IwAR1I7L048LoJrPJkJajO82Bcm6TAB0-uq2ztDj_P_qC8XQx8pSmmaOsW1yk

Circa 1870, the North fought the South in the Civil War. Half a century later, around 1920, worker unrest, racial tensions and anti-Communist sentiment caused another nationwide upsurge of violence. Then, 50 years later, the Vietnam War and Civil Rights Movement triggered a third peak in violent political, social and racial conflict. Fifty years after that will be 2020. If history continues to repeat itself, we can expect a violent upheaval in the United States in a few years.

It sounds like pseudoscience, but it's a published theory. "My model suggests that the next [peak in violence] will be worse than the one in 1970 because demographic variables such as wages, standards of living and a number of measures of intra-elite confrontation are all much worse this time," said Peter Turchin, an ecologist, evolutionary biologist and mathematician at the University of Connecticut.

Turchin has led the development of a field of study called "cliodynamics," in which scientists attempt to find meaningful patterns in history. The endeavor flies in the face of the traditional study of history, which assumes the countless variables interacting within a society lead to chaotic fluctuations in outcomes like violence and social unrest. Massimo Pigliucci, a philosopher of science at CUNY-Lehman College, said most historians believe that "the factors at play are so many and so variable that there is little reason to expect quasi-regular cycles, or a unified theory to explain them."