Posts
This
is the US response to diplomacy in Moscow.
If
the West ends weapons to Kiev -
“Russia
will have to intervene, and then, bluntly speaking, to take Kiev.
Then NATO would be in a difficult situation. Then you would have to
start World War III, which no one wants.”
---Russian military expert Yevgeny Buchinsky in Suedeutsche Zeitung
---Russian military expert Yevgeny Buchinsky in Suedeutsche Zeitung
NATO
top commander in Europe says 'military option' possible in Ukraine
7
February, 2015
NATO’s
commander in chief says the West should not rule out arming Ukraine.
General Philip Breedlove said no troops would be sent to the region,
but providing Kiev with weapons and equipment was on the cards.
Speaking
to reporters at a security conference in Munich on Saturday,
Breedlove said: “I
don’t think we should preclude out of hand the possibility of the
military option.”
His
strong comments come as the US is considering sending weapons to help
Kiev in its fight against anti-government militias.
The
chief commander of NATO said the proposal made by Russian President
Vladimir Putin to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine was “completely
unacceptable,” and
added “there
is no conversation about putting boots on the ground.”
The
head of the Russian Duma committee on CIS affairs and Eurasian
integration, Leonid Slutsky, slammed Breedlove’s comments
as “absolutely
cynical.”
Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected to meet US Secretary of
State John Kerry in Munich and NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg, while US Vice-President Joe Biden is also due to give a
speech.
NATO
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has already said the
organization’s Response Force in Europe may increase to 30,000
troops - more than double the current 13,000 - with the majority to
be posted near Russia’s borders.
However,
there are reports that NATO and the US have been arming the Kiev
forces. Russia’s ambassador to the organization, Aleksandr Grushko,
says “there
is a bulk of evidence that Western-made arms are being used in
Ukraine,”
mentioning
lethal munitions such as NATO standard artillery shells. He has asked
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to
investigate the claims.
Moscow
has urged Washington not to send weapons to Ukraine, which could
include military hardware currently being pulled out of Afghanistan.
The White House admitted on February 5 that arming Kiev could
increase bloodshed in the region.
“They
are telling us in NATO they aren’t supplying anything, that lethal
weapons are not supplied [to Ukraine] … that NATO has no [standard]
arms and all weapons are national and there are no NATO systems as
such. In reality, this is not true,” Grushko
said.
Ukrainian
President Petro Poroshenko has asked the West to provide his country
with weapons on numerous occasions. US President Barack Obama is
expected to make his decision on the possibility of sending lethal
aid to Ukraine next week, Secretary of State John Kerry announced
during a visit to Kiev.
The
secretary of state says Obama’s choice will be based on his
[Kerry’s] comments and recommendations following his visit to the
country, and will also take into account Angela Merkel’s visit to
Ukraine.
The
question of supplying Kiev with weapons seems to have split the EU-US
alliance. France, Germany and Britain amongst others have already
ruled out sending lethal aid to Ukraine, but the Baltic States and
Poland are keen on the idea.
“More
weapons in this area will not bring us closer to a solution, and will
not end the suffering of the population,” German
Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen told reporters in Brussels.
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande flew
to Moscow on Friday for talks with President Putin to try and broker
a peace deal in Ukraine. The arrival of the two heads of state,
without consulting John Kerry, is seen as a sign that Europe is
nervous about the prospect of arming Ukraine.
The
French publication, Le Nouvel Observateur, hinted the decision to
visit Moscow came as an attempt to present a viewpoint on solving the
Ukrainian crisis that differs from the US one.
The
French weekly also suggested the EU leaders are meeting Putin “to
get ahead of the Americans, who are trying to impose their solution
to the problem on Westerners: a transfer of weapons to Ukraine.”
“I
think the US is concerned that Europe can take an independent path
away from the Unites States, in other words away from the NATO
alliance in defense of their own national interests,” Brian
Becker, director of the Anti-War Answer Coalition, told RT.
I looked in van for anything on the Moscow talks on CNN's YouTube channel, but found this propaganda piece
Silence about the ongoing NATO provocations. Tanks in neighbouring Latvia, anyone
Silence about the ongoing NATO provocations. Tanks in neighbouring Latvia, anyone
And this. The US and NATO "face pressure" to supply arms
A
recent report from the last couple of hours.
Of
course Poroshenko wants arms from the West. He also wants a
cease-fire so he can rearm and regroup his defeated and demoralised
forces
Ukraine president pushes for fast cease-fire, defensive arms
Ukraine's
president pushed for both a quick cease-fire in his country's
troubled east and defensive weapons from the West, as mediators
sought momentum Saturday for a deal to stem the fighting at Europe's
edge.
7
February, 2015
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel — who along with French President Francois
Hollande traveled to Kiev on Thursday and Moscow on Friday —
acknowledged disillusionment over the failure of previous agreements
to stick and said "there are no theoretical guarantees"
that a new one would either.
Western
anxiety over the conflict is growing and sanctions are taking a toll
on Russia's economy. More than 5,300 people have been killed since
fighting began in April, according to a U.N. tally, and the bloodshed
has markedly increased over the past two weeks.
"I
do not believe there will be a final solution on this situation.
Putin is still not weak enough to accept that, and the West is not
strong enough to insist on its terms," said Igor Sutyagin, an
analyst with the Royal United Services Institute in Britain.
The
resurgent fighting has prompted the U.S. to consider giving lethal
weapons to Ukraine, an option opposed by European nations which fear
the move would merely exacerbate the situation.
"I
cannot imagine any situation in which improved equipment for the
Ukrainian army leads to President Putin being so impressed that he
believes he will lose militarily," Merkel said at the Munich
Security Conference. "I have to put it that bluntly."
U.S.
Vice President Joe Biden, who also attended the Munich conference,
stopped short of explicitly addressing possible arms deliveries. "We
will continue to provide Ukraine with security assistance not to
encourage war, but to allow Ukraine to defend itself," he said.
Russia's
most immediate goal is likely the lifting of some of the Western
sanctions which, in concert with plunging oil prices, have driven the
Russian economy into a parlous state — or at least to fend off the
imposition of further sanctions. In the longer game, Russia has
pushed for so-called "federalization" of Ukraine that would
give broad powers to its provinces and allow them to deal directly
with Moscow.
Russia
also wants to keep Ukraine out of NATO. Although Ukraine dropped its
nonalignment policy last year, the Western alliance would be unlikely
to accept Ukraine anytime soon because of its unstable politics and
endemic corruption.
France's
president said a new peace deal could feature a broad demilitarized
zone and greater autonomy for Ukraine's separatist eastern region.
"These people have gone to war," Francois Hollande said.
"It will be difficult to make them share a common life."
The
aim is to draw up a possible joint document on implementing the
September peace plan concluded in Minsk, Belarus. That widely
disregarded agreement also featured a demilitarized zone, though the
battle lines have since changed, and the government in Kiev has
offered a measure of autonomy to the separatists.
While
Germany and France are facilitating talks, "the important
decisions must be made in Moscow and Kiev," German Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said.
Poroshenko
told the Munich conference that Ukraine stands ready for a
"comprehensive and immediate cease-fire" and Russia should
be too.
He
indicated he wanted no peacekeepers in eastern Ukraine, saying they
wouldn't be needed if foreign fighters withdrew and the
Ukraine-Russia border was sealed. Then, he said, there would be
"peace and stability in Ukraine ... within a couple of weeks."
"There
is no temporary solution — this conflict must be resolved, not
frozen," he said, alluding to long-time conflicts involving
breakaway regions in Georgia and Moldova.
Later,
Poroshenko suggested the Ukrainian side could be flexible on certain
issues. He said he was open to discussing the size and contours of a
proposed buffer zone separating the combatants, and was prepared to
put the question of federalization to a referendum.
Merkel
said it is uncertain whether the talks will succeed, "but it is,
from my point of view and that of the French president, in any case
worth making this attempt."
Biden
agreed that an attempt was worthwhile but said Russia must be judged
by its actions, "not by the paper they signed."
Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said he hoped for results.
As
soon as Kiev and eastern Ukrainian separatists agree on practical
details of implementing the Minsk deal, "I am sure that Russia
will be among those parties that will guarantee the implementation of
this agreement," Lavrov told the conference. "But you can
only guarantee what has already been achieved."
The
United States and other Western countries contend Russia has supplied
troops and equipment to the separatists in eastern Ukraine who have
been fighting Ukrainian government forces since April. Russia denies
the claims.
Lavrov
also denounced "growing appeals in the West to ... pump Ukraine
full with lethal weapons and to involve it in NATO." He said
that "this position will only exacerbate the tragedy of
Ukraine."
Poroshenko
said talk of lethal weapons had been overdone and pointed to interest
in equipment such as radar and jamming stations.
Ukraine
has "proven to be responsible, that we will not use the
defensive equipment to the attack," he said. "The stronger
our defense, the more convincing is our diplomatic voice."
Meanwhile,
fighting continued in eastern Ukraine. Five Ukrainian servicemen were
killed and 26 wounded in fighting over the past day, Ukrainian
security council spokesman Volodymyr Polyoviy said Saturday. The
government website in the port city of Mariupol said one man was
killed in shelling of the outlying settlement of Gnutove, which it
blamed on rebels.
The view from Zero Hedge
The view from Zero Hedge
Ukraine 'Peace' Talks In Tatters: Defiant Putin "Won't Tolerate Unipolar World"; Hollande Proposes "Strong Autonomy" For Rebel Region
7
February, 2015
Just
as the existing 'truce' in Ukraine has been made a total farce as
1000s of military and civilians have been killed, so any 'hope' that
this weekend's "peace efforts" will result in anything but
more talk is rapidly diminishing... Germany's Merkel
exclaimed honestly that it's "uncertain whether this will be
successful," seemingly
resigned to the fact as she added, "but it's at least worth
making an attempt." French President Hollande
admitted that Ukraine's eastern regions likely need "strong
autonomy."Ukraine's
Poroshenko blustered that he "trusts" Merkel, that the
economy is collapsing (more money please), that the country
does not need peacekeepers and a lack of arms is fueling conflict (so
send us weapons) while pushing for a Russian withdrawal and quick
cease-fire. Finally Vladimir Putin
blasted that Russia is unwilling to tolerate a post-Cold War global
system dominated by one absolute leader,
to which US VP Joe Biden
remarked simply "get out of Ukraine." But
apart from that, talks are going great...
Stocks
rallied after hours on Friday on a spurious headline that peace talks
were progressing...
That
appears to be entirely false...
Merkel...
not optimistic... (via
Bloomberg)
"It’s uncertain whether this will be successful, but in my view and in the view of the French president, it’s at least worth making an attempt,” Merkel says in speech at the Munich Security Conference. “I feel that we at least owe it to those affected in Ukraine.”
“Russia needs to show its contribution” in defusing Ukraine crisis, Merkel says.
"This conflict can’t be solved militarily," Merkel says
Minsk accord must be fulfilled: Merkel
French President Francois Hollande called for “quite strong” autonomy for Ukraine’s eastern regions while speaking on France 2 TV. He also revealed part of the joint plan discussed in Moscow on the conflict’s solution. On Saturday, Hollande said that the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Lugansk need “rather strong” autonomy from Kiev.
“These people have gone to war," Hollande explained "It will be difficult to make them share a common life [with Kiev]."
Ukrainian
President Poroshenko appears tro demand more money and weapons...
- *POROSHENKO: 5,638 PEOPLE KILLED IN UKRAINE CONFLICT SO FAR
- *POROSHENKO: UKRAINE HAS LOST 20% OF ITS INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
- *POROSHENKO: ONLY THE MINSK AGREEMENT CAN STABILIZE UKRAINE
- *POROSHENKO: UKRAINE'S LACK OF ARMS IS FUELING CONFLICT
- *POROSHENKO SAYS UKRAINE DOESN'T NEED PEACEKEEPERS NOW
- *POROSHENKO SAYS PRIORITY IS CEASE-FIRE, RUSSIAN PULLOUT
Russia's
Lavrov slammed NATO...
*LAVROV TOLD STOLTENBERG NATO'S BUILDUP PROVOKING CONFRONTATION*LAVROV SAYS NATO BUILDUP WORSENS TENSIONS, UNDERMINES SECURITY
*LAVROV: NATO BACKING UKRAINE'S CRACKDOWN WON'T FACILITATE PEACE
NATO’s backing for crackdown by Ukrainian govt in southeast doesn’t facilitate peaceful settlement of conflict, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tells military alliance’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
NATO course to boost its military presence, infrastructure on its eastern flank, “substantial increase” in number of drills near Russia’s border worsen tension, provoke confrontation, undermine “entire system” of Euro-Atlantic security.
Putin
added some more strategic spice... (via Bloomberg)
Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a defiant tone a day after talks in Moscow with the leaders of Germany and France failed to achieve a breakthrough in resolving the Ukraine crisis.
Russia won’t tolerate the post-Cold War global system dominated by a single leader,Putin said Saturday at a meeting with the Federation of Independent Trade Unions in Sochi.
“That type of world order has never been acceptable for Russia,” Putin said. “Maybe someone likes it and wants to live under a pseudo-occupation, but we won’t put up with it.”
To
which US VP Joe Biden responded... (via
CNN)
Vice President Joe Biden served up some blunt talk on Saturday, telling Russian PresidentVladimir Putin simply to "get out of Ukraine."
...
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, Biden said the conflict had moved beyond the need for a "reset" with the relationship, instead requiring a "re-assertion" of the "fundamental bedrock principles on which European freedom and stability rest."
"We must judge ... any future agreement with Russia by the actions Russia takes on the ground, not by the paper they sign," Biden said. "Given Russia's recent history, we need to judge it by its deeds, not its words. Don't tell us, show us, President Putin. Too many times President Putin has promised peace and delivered tanks, troops, and weapons."
...
"We will continue providing Ukraine with security assistance, not to encourage war, but to allow Ukraine to defend itself," he said. "Let me be clear: We do not believe that there is a military solution in Ukraine. Let me be equally clear: We do not believe Russia has the right to do what they're doing."
*
* *
But
apart from that, talks are progressing nicely...
- *POROSHENKO: WILL HAVE AN ANSWER ON CEASEFIRE IN HOURS OR DAYS (or weeks or months or never)
And
as Daniel Hannan notes (via
CapX.com),
...in a throwback to the Khruschev and Brezhnev eras, the Kremlin is seeking to detach Germany and France from Nato’s more hawkish Anglo-Saxon members. Angela Merkel and François Hollande oppose sending military or logistical support to Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin is now dealing directly with them, pointedly excluding Britain, the United States and Canada.
In theory, a peace settlement might be hammered out. While we don’t know the details of the current negotiations, the broad outlines of a deal were visible by the end of last year. Russia would, in effect, buy back the Crimea, possibly for a sum based on the capitalisation of its annual rent of the naval facilities there. The international community would recognise the new frontier – Crimea, after all, was the one part of Ukraine where there really was popular support for an Anschluss with Russia – and Russia, in exchange, would withdraw from the grim industrial towns of the Donets basin. Some form of local autonomy might well be part of the deal – a worthwhile reform in itself in a territory as large as Ukraine.
Here, though, is the question. Does Putin really want peace? Is his aim victory – and recognition of the annexation of Crimea would certainly constitute victory of a kind – or is it a continuation of the crisis? The conflict, after all, has sent his approval ratings above 80 per cent. When you are presiding over both poverty and autocracy, you need something else to legitimise your regime, and that something else, for Putin, is the sense of nationalism and unity engendered by a conflicts involving Russian irredenti.
...
The West never quite knows how to handle Vladimir Putin, and the crisis in Ukraine is, at least in part, a consequence of our prevarication.
Read more here...
*
* *
Perhaps
- in the same way - US leadership needs a 'foreign' boogey-man to
focus national attention away from what is under the surface a weak
and extremely divided economic 'recovery'?
Nineteenth-century German historians had a phrase, Primat der Innenpolitik, meaning thatall foreign policy was essentially driven by domestic concerns. One government would pick a fight with another, not because of geopolitical imperatives, but in order to shore up its support at home.
Shakespeare has Henry IV give his son some advice from the deathbed: “Be it thy course to busy giddy minds with foreign quarrels”
For the Guardian pro-war acount, see -
German
chancellor ‘disappointed’ by Russian attitude but says proposal
for demilitarised zone to end conflict is ‘worth trying’
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.