Iran
- Message Sent, Message
Delivered
24
June, 2019
It
is clear that Iran is sending the U.S. a stern message. And that
message is we can hurt you asymmetrically as much as you hurt us.
‘Our capabilities far exceed your tolerance for withstanding them.’
The
more we learn about this incident the more the initial story
concocted by the U.S. looks specious. Drone in international
airspace? Most likely not.
Trump
said someone made a mistake? No, completely deliberate.
The
drone that was shot down, an RQ-4A Global Hawk, was the cream of our
surveillance drones. It was flying in tandem with an anti-submarine
Poseidon P-8 spy plane, which, according
to Elijah Magnier was carrying far more than its normal crew of 9.
Try
38.
That
was not reported at first either in the initial flush for war. Iran
then revealed just how loose with the truth the U.S. turned out to be
and that forced a complete rethink of the situation.
There
was no mistake involved. No IRGC officer panicked. Iran deliberately
targeted the Global Hawk after it failed to respond to hails to leave
Iranian airspace and turned off its GPS, lights and digital systems.
It
was acting as a hostile and Iran treated it as such. After sparing
the Poseidon P-8 and its crew and passengers Iran shot down the
drone.
That
said Iran made this decision only after getting confirmation that the
U.S. ruled out going to war with them. So, they stood down from
shooting the Poseidon, which was the initial target, according to
Magnier’s sources within the IRGC.
“Iran was about to hit and destroy the US Navy P-8 Poseidon spy and anti-submarine Boeing that was flying in the area when we received confirmation that the US had decided not to go to war and not to bomb any control and command or missile batteries positions, cleared or non-cleared, along the Straits of Hormuz. Had Trump decided otherwise, we had orders to hit several US and US allies’ targets and the Middle East would have been the theatre of a very destructive war with huge losses on all sides”, said an Iranian IRGC General.
But
even after that confirmation came down Iran still chose to shoot down
the drone. This was a clear message that actions speak far louder
than words.
The
Iranian leadership decided it was time to test Donald Trump’s
mettle. They
didn’t have to shoot down the drone. But if they didn’t it would
give the U.S. carte
blanche to
violate Iranian airspace without fear of reprisal solely because
back-channel communications say, for now, the U.S. has stayed its
hand.
This
is likely why Trump was so angry at the presser the other day with
Justin Trudeau when asked about the incident.
He
made what he thought was a gesture of good faith to Iran and, to him,
Iran spit in his eye.
And
this is where Trump’s fundamental character flaws come to the fore.
He’s simply not able to see things outside of his own personal
costs. A classic narcissist. And this is why he wanted desperately to
bomb Iranian targets in response.
Because
of his fundamental flaws he had to be talked off the ledge by,
reportedly, Tucker Carlson. Good on Tucker if this is even remotely
true, but should it have come to this?
If
this is what passes for the decision-making flowchart of the Trump
administration then we should all be really worried.
In
the end, this was just a drone and one that was 1) somewhere it
shouldn’t have been and 2) acting in a very suspicious manner, if
the Iranian side of the story is to be believed.
And
given the potential costs for Iran if they were wrong, the onus of
proof, in my mind, lies with the U.S., which it will not provide.
That’s a clear signal that we don’t have the evidence to back up
our story.,
Then
Trump floats this nonsense about killing 150 Iranians wouldn’t be
“proportionate.” So people who starve or are denied a better life
because of sanctions and threats aren’t casualties, Don? Only those
killed by bombs?
Again,
this is the position of a sick and dangerous narcissist. And don’t
think I would only say this about Trump. No, this goes for all of
this country’s leaders going back decades.
Sanctions
are acts of war. Embargoes are immoral. Just because you can’t tie
deaths to it directly doesn’t mean the effects of them aren’t
real.
So
Trump sends out two signals today.
First,
he tells everyone in the region they are on their own to protect
their regional assets, i.e. oil tankers.
This
is a clear message that he’s done escalating this stand-off with
Iran and is looking for ways out of this.
Because
if he were truly serious about taking all of Iran’s oil off the
market he would be pledging 5th fleet escorts today rather than
complaining that China should pay for securing their oil shipments.
Trump
started this fight now he doesn’t know how to get out of it. I
expect Putin and Xi will sit him down at the G-20 and work through
his options. These men always allow Trump to save face. Iran can’t.
The only way they win here is to beat him thoroughly such that
everyone knows it.
But
as I said over the weekend, Iran isn’t interested in allowing Trump
to save face here without him giving up something huge. He started
this fight and it’s up to him to put something tangible on the
table. And saying, “I won’t bomb you back to the stone age over a
drone” is not an olive branch.
The
second thing he did today, confirming his impotence, was putting
ineffectual and idiotic sanctions on Iran’s political leadership.
I’m
sure they are shaking in their turbins now!
The
war-gaming after this incident was clear, however. Any retaliation by
the U.S. would be catastrophic for the world economy. It would
unleash a regional conflict on multiple fronts which would not be any
kind of controlled theater. I’m sure even the biggest hawks on the
Joint Chiefs of Staff would have been uncomfortable with fighting
those battles.
In
the end, it looks like Iran’s message was sent and delivered. Trump
found out that no amount of external direct pressure will get the
Iranian government to fold.
That
for all the might of the U.S. military and financial empire, its
weaknesses are deep enough that even a relatively weak military and
economy like Iran’s can stop it all dead cold because of basic
things like geography, logistics and simple human resolve.
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