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Sam Carana , via Facebook
Typhoon
Noru approaching Japan.
Image
shows forecast for August 5, 2017, 18:00 UTC.
Waves
are forecast to be as high as 16.15 m or 53 ft, while winds are
forecast to reach speeds as high as 182 km/h or 113 mph.
Total
precipitable water is forecast to be as much as 91.000 kg/m²
3-hr
Precipitation Accumulation is forecast to be as much as 261.6 mm (or
261.6 kg/m²) or 10.3 in.
Typhoon
Noru, Briefly a Category 5 After Last Week's Fujiwhara Effect, a
Potential Japan Threat by This Weekend
- Noru rapidly intensified in the western Pacific Ocean Sunday.
- Noru will inch northwestward this week and could near the Japanese coast by the weekend.
- It is too soon to tell if Noru will make a landfall or remain offshore.
- Last week, Noru teamed up with former tropical cyclone Kulap in the Fujiwhara effect.
31
July, 2017
Typhoon
Noru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category
5 tropical
cyclone Sunday and now poses an increasing threat to Japan as
soon as this weekend.
Noru
strengthened from a tropical storm with estimated 70-mph winds (60
knots) to
a Category 5 super typhoon with
estimated 160-mph winds (140 knots) in just 18 hours from 8 p.m. EDT
July 29 to 2 p.m. EDT July 30, according to the U.S. Joint
Typhoon Warning Center.
Noru's
intensity has since backed off, typical for intense tropical
cyclones. It's no longer designated a super typhoon since maximum
sustained winds have dropped below 150 mph.
Current
Storm Status
The
highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection,
are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection
around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.
Noru
has been a tropical cyclone for 11 days since first becoming a
tropical depression on July 20, and it may last another week or more.
Noru
should move northwestward the next several days but may do so
slowly, becoming caught between two areas of high pressure aloft, one
north of Guam, and the other that will develop near the southern
Yellow Sea or eastern China.
Eventually,
by the weekend, a southward dip of the jet stream will approach from
Manchuria, but forecast guidance is unclear whether Noru will be
pulled northeastward into the jet-stream dip (more ominous for
Japan) or get kicked east (less ominous for Japan).
The
bottom line is that all interests in Japan should closely monitor the
progress of Noru. The potential for a strong typhoon landfall as soon
as this weekend is increasing, but it is still too soon to determine
if that will occur and who may be hit hardest.
Noru
Path History and Forecast Path
The
thin line indicates the path history of Noru, color coded by
intensity. The red cone indicates the forecast path of Noru the next
five days, per the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Even
if Noru's center remains somewhat offshore, bands of heavy rain
leading to flash flooding and mudslides could be a serious threat.
In
the meantime, Noru will generate large swells that will reach the
Japanese Pacific coast this week and persist for days.
Last Week's Fujiwhara Effect
Last
week, Noru teamed up with another tropical cyclone named Kulap in a
meteorological dance called the Fujiwhara
effect.
Named after a Japanese researcher who discovered this in experiments with water in the early 1920s, the Fujiwhara effect details how two tropical cyclones less than 900 miles apart rotate counter-clockwise about one another.
Think
of the teacup
ride at Disney or
the Tilt-a-Whirl at your local county fair, but with tropical systems
instead. In the teacup ride, adjacent teacups can not only spin, but
revolve about each other.
While
Kulap had degenerated to a remnant, one could still pick out its
leftover circulation in Himawari-8 visible satellite imagery July
27 south-southwest of Noru.
Typhoon
Noru and the remnant of former Tropical Storm Kulap are shown in
this visible satellite image from the Himawari-8 satellite on July
27, 2017. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
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