Tuesday, 1 August 2017

Typhoon Noru approaching Japan

From Sam Carana , via Facebook

Typhoon Noru approaching Japan.

Image shows forecast for August 5, 2017, 18:00 UTC.

Waves are forecast to be as high as 16.15 m or 53 ft, while winds are forecast to reach speeds as high as 182 km/h or 113 mph.

Total precipitable water is forecast to be as much as 91.000 kg/m² 

3-hr Precipitation Accumulation is forecast to be as much as 261.6 mm (or 261.6 kg/m²) or 10.3 in.

Typhoon Noru, Briefly a Category 5 After Last Week's Fujiwhara Effect, a Potential Japan Threat by This Weekend
  • Noru rapidly intensified in the western Pacific Ocean Sunday.
  • Noru will inch northwestward this week and could near the Japanese coast by the weekend.
  • It is too soon to tell if Noru will make a landfall or remain offshore.
  • Last week, Noru teamed up with former tropical cyclone Kulap in the Fujiwhara effect.

31 July, 2017

Typhoon Noru rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 tropical cyclone Sunday and now poses an increasing threat to Japan as soon as this weekend.

Noru strengthened from a tropical storm with estimated 70-mph winds (60 knots) to a Category 5 super typhoon with estimated 160-mph winds (140 knots) in just 18 hours from 8 p.m. EDT July 29 to 2 p.m. EDT July 30, according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

(MORE: Stunning Images of Nour)

Noru's intensity has since backed off, typical for intense tropical cyclones. It's no longer designated a super typhoon since maximum sustained winds have dropped below 150 mph.

Current Storm Status

Current Storm Status

The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the brightest red colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.
Noru has been a tropical cyclone for 11 days since first becoming a tropical depression on July 20, and it may last another week or more.

Noru should move northwestward the next several days but may do so slowly, becoming caught between two areas of high pressure aloft, one north of Guam, and the other that will develop near the southern Yellow Sea or eastern China.
Eventually, by the weekend, a southward dip of the jet stream will approach from Manchuria, but forecast guidance is unclear whether Noru will be pulled northeastward into the jet-stream dip (more ominous for Japan) or get kicked east (less ominous for Japan). 

The bottom line is that all interests in Japan should closely monitor the progress of Noru. The potential for a strong typhoon landfall as soon as this weekend is increasing, but it is still too soon to determine if that will occur and who may be hit hardest.

Noru Path History and Forecast Path

Noru Path History and Forecast Path

The thin line indicates the path history of Noru, color coded by intensity. The red cone indicates the forecast path of Noru the next five days, per the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Even if Noru's center remains somewhat offshore, bands of heavy rain leading to flash flooding and mudslides could be a serious threat.

In the meantime, Noru will generate large swells that will reach the Japanese Pacific coast this week and persist for days.

Last Week's Fujiwhara Effect

Last week, Noru teamed up with another tropical cyclone named Kulap in a meteorological dance called the Fujiwhara effect.

Named after a Japanese researcher who discovered this in experiments with water in the early 1920s, the Fujiwhara effect details how two tropical cyclones less than 900 miles apart rotate counter-clockwise about one another.

Think of the teacup ride at Disney or the Tilt-a-Whirl at your local county fair, but with tropical systems instead. In the teacup ride, adjacent teacups can not only spin, but revolve about each other.

While Kulap had degenerated to a remnant, one could still pick out its leftover circulation in Himawari-8 visible satellite imagery July 27 south-southwest of Noru.

Typhoon Noru and the remnant of former Tropical Storm Kulap are shown in this visible satellite image from the Himawari-8 satellite on July 27, 2017. (Japan Meteorological Agency)

Last Tuesday, thanks in part to the Fujiwhara interaction, Noru crossed its path from the previous week completing an oval-shaped loop.

Hurricane Otto was the latest hurricane landfall in any calendar year on record in the Atlantic basin, coming ashore in southeast Nicaragua on Thanksgiving Day, Nov. 24, 2016. Otto was a Category 3 hurricane at landfall, and was the only known hurricane to track over Costa Rica.  

No comments:

Post a Comment