50,000
New Coronavirus
Infections Per Day in China
MishTalk,
7 February, 2020
Prof. Neil Ferguson, Vice Dean Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College in London, estimates 50K new infections per day.
7 February, 2020
Prof. Neil Ferguson, Vice Dean Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College in London, estimates 50K new infections per day.
Please
consider the following video by Prof. Neil Ferguson.
10
Key Video Points
- 50,000 new cases a day in china
- Infections doubling every 5 days
- Death rate is still unknown
- China likely to peak in March
- Epidemic peak is still a month away
- It will be very hard to control this epidemic the say way we did with SARS 15-20 years ago
- Cases are always underestimated
- Death delays are as long as three weeks
- Reported deaths outside China are not reassuring because of delays
- We still don't know the full effects
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on Containment Strategies
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Stop
the Ridiculous Flu Comparisons
People
are still comparing this outbreak with the flu.
Stop
already!
60
million people are locked up in China, in their homes. One person is
allowed out every three days.
For
comparison purposes, the state of California has about 40 million
people. Illinois has 13 million. Michigan has 10 million.
So
imagine everyone in CA, IL, and MI being locked in their houses,
unable to leave other than to buy groceries every three days.
And
if you think the reported death count is accurate given 60 million
lockups with infections growing by 50,000 per day, you need to think
again.
China
is forcing people into quarantine camps, restricting
movement, locking
people in their homes (literally),
demanding daily temperatures updates from everyone, and now bitching
about about travel restrictions of other countries.
Unfortunately,
things look to get worse for at least a few more weeks.
Mike
"Mish" Shedlock
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