How might Iran take revenge?

The Revenge For The 

Assassination Of Qassem 

Soleimani

Moon of Alabama,

4 January, 2019

The Trump administration is telling fairytales about its murder of Major General Qassem Soleimani. He was not planning any "imminent attacks" on the U.S. or its interests in Iraq. Reports which claim that while calling Katyusha rockets "sophisticated weapons" can obviously be ignored. In no way was Soleimani a legitimate target for a U.S. attack. No Orwellian State Department briefing can change that.

Fact is that Trump is following the plan of the Foundation of the Defense of Democracy (FDD) which was originally founded as EMET (Hebrew for "truth"), "to provide education to enhance Israel’s image in North America." Undercover video from Al Jazeerah caught the Israeli ex-intel official Sima Vakhnin-Gil in 2017 saying "We have FDD" when she was asked how Israel lobbies for its interests.

Dan Cohen @dancohen3000 - 5:23 UTC · Jan 4, 2020
FDD is an Israeli government front group. Trump mega donor Bernard “Iran is the devil” Marcus pays 1/3 of its budget. FDD advisor Richard Goldberg was appointed to National Security Council to push for attacking Iran. FDD continued to pay his salary.

FDD was tasked by Israel to instigate a U.S. war on Iran. Following FDD's plans Trump and his advisors are trying to provoke Iran to retaliate in a way that allows them to launch such a war.

There is a historic example of how Iran reacts to such U.S. provocations.

The U.S. attack:

Iran Air Flight 655 was a scheduled passenger flight from Tehran to Dubai via Bandar Abbas, that was shot down on 3 July 1988 by an SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes, a guided missile cruiser of the United States Navy. The aircraft, an Airbus A300, was destroyed and all 290 people on board, including 66 children, were killed.

The Iranian retribution:

Pan Am Flight 103 was a regularly scheduled Pan Am transatlantic flight from Frankfurt to Detroit via London and New York. On 21 December 1988, N739PA, the aircraft operating the transatlantic leg of the route was destroyed by a bomb, killing all 243 passengers and 16 crew in what became known as the Lockerbie bombing.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) claimed to be responsible for the bombing of the plane. It had used a Palestinian cutout in Lebanon to plant the bomb. But for political reasons the official investigation was manipulated and the blame for the Lockerbie bombing was put on Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi who had absolutely nothing to do with it.

The murder of the passengers and crew of Iran Air Flight 655 and the retribution for it were five and a half month apart. This gives us a hint of how long it might take for Iran to prepare the retribution for the U.S. assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani. There is also the political calender that has to be considered. If an Iranian revenge act is of a kind that could help Trump to get reelected it must wait until after the U.S. election. If the revenge act is of a kind that could hurt Trump's poll numbers it must come during the last few months of the campaign.

We will know that it has happened when this flag comes down:

video - bigger

SIFFAT ZAHRA @SiffatZahra - 10:52 UTC · Jan 4, 2020
First Time In The History, Red Flag Unfurled Over The Holy Dome Of Jamkarān Mosque, Qom Iran.
Red Flag: A Symbol Of Severe Battle To Come.
#Qaseemsulaimani

Barzan Sadiq @BarzanSadiq - 12:32 UTC · Jan 4, 2020
A red flag unfurled above the minarets of a Mosque in the #Qom. in Arabic were the words: "Those who want to avenge the blood of #Hussein." Red flags in Shiite tradition symbolize both blood spilled unjustly and serve as a call to avenge a person who is slain.

Sara_Haj ?￰ﾟﾇﾧ @Sara_Haj - 12:45 UTC · Jan 4, 2020
It is a #Shia thing for those who understand our ideology & history, thus our commitment, patience & persistence!

The red flag was raised over Jamkaran mosque in #Qom yesterday & it won't be taken down until revenge is fulfilled. #Soleimani

Iran has to take revenge for the outrageous assassination of Soleimani to prevent future assassinations of a similar kind. The U.S. broke the rules when it killed an active commander of another country outside of a declared war. New rules must now be established to regain a balance.

Iran will likely prepare multiple venues and methods for retribution. It might execute only one or several of those. The targets will be of at least equal size and symbolic importance (slow loading but excellent) as Soleimani. The head of the CIA or Vice President Pence would probably be adequate targets. But they are likely too well protected to be accessible. The sinking of a large U.S. combat ship will also be considered. There are a number of other possibilities for sufficient 'surprises'.

The murder of Soleimani was not the only message Trump sent to Tehran:

Hala Jaber @HalaJaber- 21:13 UTC · Jan 3, 2020
.31/ #Trump’s letter to #Iran, delivered earlier today via the #Swiss embassy in #Tehran (the representative of #US interests in Iran) included a call for calm & non-escalation & offered incentives, a former Iranian diplomat told @AlMayadeenLive

.32/ #Tehran regarded #Trump’s requests as “childish behaviour.” An appropriate written response, to the American message, was sent back via the Swiss embassy. 

.33/ #Tehran apparently refused to receive a second letter, also from #Trump & sent with an Arab mediator who arrived to Iran this morning, Musawi told @AlMayadeenLive

.34/ The former Iranian diplomat, Amir Musawi, also told @AlMayadeenLive that the ”surprises” will become apparent in “Iran’s deterrent reprisals.” “Americans should prepare for surprises, in response to the assassination of General #Soleimani & #AlMohandis.”

Trump himself offered up targets:

Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai - 14:33 UTC · Jan 4, 2020
#BreakingNews:

#US asked #Iran, according to sources in #Tehran, to limit its response to the assassination of Brigadier General #QassemSoleimani to a "similar response".
This means when confirmed, @realDonaldTrump is offering to Iran the life of a US four-star general.

#US asked #Qatar to mediate w/ #Iran over the retaliation to the assassination of #QassemSoleimani. Deputy PM/ FM Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met with his counterpart Javad Zarif and offered "nuclear deal" and lifting sanctions in exchange of no response.

For Donald Trump everything is just a deal. But it is obvious that Iran will reject all such offers. It can not ideologically justify abstaining from revenge for its most prominent martyr in exchange for some material benefit. Trump will not get this but for Iran it is simply unthinkable and impossible.

Iran's revenge act can not be done within U.S. borders. That would be interpreted as a direct attack and could be used as a pretext for war. Iran will also want to have some plausible deniability for whatever happens. It must therefore exclude incidents in the Persian Gulf or near its shore. East Asia would be the preferable venue. Like it did in the Lockerbie case Iran is likely to use cutouts to execute its plans.

Soleimani's main task was to build and support external groups that are able to resist their local enemies as well as able to act on behalf of Iran. He excelled in his job for over 20 years. Iran has now many friends who it can ask to execute whatever it decides should be done.

Soleimani was also a commander who could restrict the actions of the groups he supervised through his personal relations with them. That he is no longer able to do so increases the risk that some of those groups and fighters will take their own measures to exact revenge for his death. It could create problems if any such act is falsely attributed to Iran.

The U.S. did not murder only Qassem Soleimani. On December 29 it also killed 31 Iraqi government forces. Five days later it killed Soleimani and the Deputy Commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF/PMU/Hashed al-Shabi) and leader of Kata'ib Hizbollah Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. There were also four IRGC and four Kata'ib Hizbollah men who were killed while accompanying their leaders. The PMU are under direct command of the Iraqi Prime Minister. They are official Iraqi defense forces who defeated ISIS after a bloody war. Their murder demands that their government acts against the perpetrators.

Several of the Shia PMU groups have already declared that they will do whatever they can to evict the U.S. military from Iraqi soil. Some 5,000 U.S. and other NATO forces are in Iraq to train Iraqi government troops. They live on the same bases as Iraqi army troops and PMU groups who their commander in chief calls Iran supported terrorists while he is killing their leaders.

Today they finally recognized that this might be a problem. This morning their U.S. command ordered a halt of all training activities. The Iraqi government also issued an order that, for the time being, no further U.S. operation may take place in Iraq. Tomorrow the Iraqi parliament will meet to consult over a law that would evict all U.S. troops. There is currently some disunity within the Shia majority in the parliament. Should it fail to evict the U.S. the Shia PMU groups will act on their own. Not because of Soleimani or Iran, but because their comrades and leaders were killed. They will attack the U.S. military wherever they can. The situation for the U.S. in Iraq would then soon become untenable. 

Iraq will continue to need capable foreign troops to train its still feeble army. It should ask Russia and China to provide them.

The removal of U.S. forces from Iraq will be the first act of revenge for Qassem Soleimani's death. More will follow in due time and with the appropriate severity.