I wish he would reference those sources that are public; what is the 'model' he is talking about?
VIRUS UPDATE FOR
U.S.A.:"Worst Public Health
Disaster in 100 years"
27 January, 2020
According to an Infectious Disease Specialist in my state of New Jersey who has direct access to classified information about emerging diseases, humanity is facing "the worst disease crisis in over 100 years" with this new Coronavirus, and "the latest disease progression models are now showing DEATHS on a scale never before seen in human history."
First some basic facts:
The first awareness of this "novel coronavirus" came in China in late December.
41 people in Wuhan, China went to hospitals with fevers, coughs, and other symptoms and were all found to have severe pneumonia, many with acute cardiac damage and, ultimately, a large number of them . . . fifteen percent (15%) died.
The government in China SUPPRESSED information from the public, jailing reporters for "spreading rumors" and for "unpatriotic reporting" -- for which the Mayor of Wuhan has now resigned.
That was late December. We are now in Late January and China has more than fifty-six MILLION people under Quarantine. An Infection rate of 83% has been conclusively established by a formal medical study published in "The Lancet" medical journal. That means for every 100 people EXPOSED to this new virus, 83 of them will get sick from it.
That same medical study shows the incubation period to be as short as FOUR days, but as long as FOURTEEN Days before a person shows symptoms.
That study also shows the disease becomes contagious DURING the incubation period, meaning the 83 people infected can spread the illness to others BEFORE THEY SHOW SYMPTOMS. People are walking around, doing the things they normally do, with no idea they're sick and already infecting others.
Once symptoms begin, they include fever in 98% of infected persons, cough in 76% of infected persons, and other symptoms. But it is the 98% with fever that is most disturbing, because that means TWO PERCENT HAVE NO FEVER.
At present, authorities checking people for the spread of the disease are only looking for fever and respiratory troubles. Yet two percent of infected do not get fevers.
What that means is that for every 50 people infected, ONE who is infected and contagious, WILL GET THROUGH SCREENING and continue to spread the illness.
Worse, the coronavirus can live on surfaces; for as few as five days, and as long as 28 days. So people who are sick, and who touch store counters, products on store shelves, DOOR HANDLES in public places, or who use public bathrooms, leave the virus on all those things, and the virus lives to infect others for 5 to 28 days.
Further, packages you receive via the Post Office, FedEx, UPS, Amazon or other companies, CAN HAVE VIRUS ON THEM if an infected person handled them, coughed or sneezed on them. The package arrives, you open it and now have the virus on your hands. If you touch your face, mouth or nose . . . or pick up a sandwich and eat it after touching it with your hands, POW, you're infected.
As such, the infectious disease specialist with whom I spoke today, told me "there is no way to stop the spread of this."
Now, various government agencies use Models to project outcomes. And the model I will now report is going to utterly terrify you.
In the example above, out of 100 people EXPOSED, 83 will get sick.
Alright... math time...based on current numbers
83% infection rate according to a medical journal
3.5% death rate for those infected (CDC)
15% percent death rate for those in serious condition receiving hospital caremaking 23.3% or more percent of the infected likely to end up in the hospital.
23.3 percent of 83% of a population is....
20% or more of any given population that will need to be in the hospital
There are only 7 hospital beds per 1000 people in any given area in your average halfway decent country
That's 0.7 hospital beds per 100 people
BUT 20 out of 100 people in need of intensive care
however, hopefully they wont all get it at the same time
..only 1 in 29 people in serious condition will receive proper medical care
And the less medical care they get, the higher the death rate climbs. Those without supportive medical care have a death rate of 65%
Finally, and this is the worst thing I have ever had to report, in Linear Projections, "Time 2" is best predicted by "Time 1"
We are in Late January and China, which is about 1 month into its outbreak, has 56 Million people in 19 cities under Quarantine.
China (Time 1) is about 1 month ahead of the USA (Time 2) in its situation.
So one month from now in the USA (Time 2), we can expect similar or worse situation in the USA than China (Time 1) has right now.
Are YOU ready to be Quarantined? Do you have Emergency food to feed yourself and family for the 6 weeks such a Quarantine might last?
Do YOU have emergency water stored to provide 1 gallon per person, per day for people in your house?
Do YOU have a Filter mask and Goggles and Rubber gloves to TRY to avoid becoming infected when you go out?
You have until about THIS FRIDAY to prepare and hope to survive.
NOW, THE BAD NEWS . . .
The models being used for this outbreak have turned out to be spot-on accurate in the spread and mortality rates. time table (sadly) holds.
2 days ago that Model forecast by Tuesday (which is tomorrow) the number of countries reporting cases will rise to 20+ in the list, from 11, with the 11 ones announcing additional cases.
As of now, the list has 16 countries, with 24 hours left for another 4+ countries to become "members' on this list.
The model used for the time table, also shows almost 400 confirmed cases all over the world (outside China), by Sunday, Feb. 2nd.
Sadly, in every respect so far the model is holding. . . and what is has for February 16th is really apocalyptic.
The Model used by Intelligence Agencies to predict real-world situations says that by Feb. 16th, China will be virtually "done." It will be a collapsed country.
The Model also says the global economy will collapse.
With respect to the United States and Europe, the Model says the US and the EU, by February 16th, will see first cities put into quarantine (or attempting to), leading to mass panic, riots, looting, all the other "cool" stuff.
Most horrifying, the Model says that by mid-April, the world as we know it, it will be history. Massive infrastructure failures from lack of maintenance and lack of control - staffs thinned-out from sickness or dying off, basic services failing, and the like.
I really hope the Model is wrong, but the model was dead-on since Wuhan was closed; and what I have just told you is what the Model predicts.
If the model holds this week as it did until today, it can no longer be wrong, especially if US and the EU do not stop all traveling by Feb. 16th.
Do you grasp this? The world as we know it, will collapse.
You have the rest of this week to prepare. After that, based on the Model, things start coming apart at the seams. FAST.
PREPARE BY THIS FRIDAY
When things go wild weasel here in America, there will be all sorts of unanticipated service disruptions. You should PREPARE NOW because once the SHTF, it will be too late.
Here are suggested "Preps" to try to get yourself and your family through what's coming. There is precious little time left . . .
The best strategy for this is NOT to be exposed. Fat chance of that; we ALL go out: Work, school, shopping, recreation, and so forth.
So how might we protect ourselves while we're out?
Well, the fact this virus can be spread by air, in addition to staying alive on surfaces like counter tops, desks, water fountains, door handles, inside cars and buses, product packages on store shelves that someone else handled, or sneezed-on or coughed-on, - including ones that get delivered by mail, FedEx, UPS, etc. -- complicates things greatly.
Step One: Stay home. Do not go out unless you absolutely MUST.
Step Two: Presuming you have to go out (we ALL do) wear a filter mask.
The N-95 masks are almost completely sold out. So you can get a better mask rated as N-100 or P-100 for the time being until THEY sell out. Links to various suppliers are HERE-N-95 and HERE N-100. (I am NOT the seller)
You can also get the VASTLY AVAILABLE 3M 7500 (HERE) which uses 3M 2091 filters (HERE) This mask system is more expensive, but it works and is widely still available. (Again, I am NOT the seller)
Get a box of rubber/nitrile Gloves (Here)
Wear this gear when you go out.
Yes, you'll look and feel ridiculous. But you are much more likely to have the last laugh because YOU are protecting yourself.
THIS IS URGENTLY IMPORTANT:
The absolute moment you get home, take off your shoes and leave them in the foyer. DO NOT WALK AROUND YOUR HOUSE IN SHOES YOU WORE OUTSIDE.
You may have walked on a large amount of infected material as you were out and if you wear those shoes in the house, the virus will spread in the house.
Next: Go into the bathroom, take off your clothing, put it in a hamper or plastic bag, and take a shower. You HAVE TO WASH OFF any virus that may have landed on your body or hair, while you were out.
Put on clean garments. You cannot go sit in your chair or lay on your couch or bed in clothing you wore outside. The virus will come off the clothing, onto the furniture and pow, someone in the house catches it.
Make every person in your household do this the absolute moment they come home. This virus is HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS and it KILLS people. We cannot skimp or get lazy protecting ourselves.
Eat right, take vitamins (I use Centrum), and pray to Almighty God that you be protected by Him during this crisis. I'm not kidding. I mean it: PRAY.
Even if you haven't prayed in decades, start now. "Hi God, it's me (so and so). I know I haven't prayed to you in a long time, but I'm coming back to you now. . . . ."
And then talk honestly and earnestly to him, in a very quiet voice.
Just remember, this is God, not a magician to be summoned to do tricks or render services at our beckon call. He made us. We are HIS to do with a HE sees fit.
Have Emergency food (HERE, HERE, and HERE) in the house in case Quarantine gets implemented, so you and your family can eat for the 6 weeks or so such Quarantines are likely to last.
Have Emergency Water (HERE) stored up in case the water supply gets contaminated.
Here is a complete list of "Preps" that folks might consider for themselves.