Sunday, 11 June 2017

Temperatures have increased 1.8, NOT 1.1C since pre-industrial times


Paul Beckwith blows duplicitous global temperature slight-of-hand out of the water



In this very important video Paul Beckwith makes several vitally-important points.

The first is that IEA figures purport to show flattening CO2 emissions while concentrations are increasing in an exponential manner.

The conclusion to be reached is that carbon sinks are failing meaning that “natural” causes (such as forest fires) are taking over as sources of greenhouse gas concentarations from human emissions.

In anybody’s language that is a tipping point.




The second important point is that conventional scientists have switched fron measurements since the onset of the industrial age to measurements since 1950.

This shows a moderate increase of 1.1C whereas if you use the same beginning and end-points the increase in temperature was 1.8C compared with pre-industrial levels which exceeds the minimum level of 1.5C in the Paris Agreemwent and approaching the ficticious level of 2.0C.




Note that the previous level reached previously by James Hansen beyond which we could not go without setting off positive feedbacks was 1.0C and possibly the true level was 0.5C relative to pre-industrial levels.



This 1950 sleight-of-hand was recently used in a talk I went to by Prof. Emeritus Peter Barrett to demonstrate a moderate and linear increase of 0.1C per decade.

In my books that represented either unforgivable incompetence or worse, fraud.

No other word for it.
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Listen carefully to what Paul has to say on this

Vital Info: Paris 2 Degree Rise Relates to 1750 



In 2015 and 2016 atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide spiked upward by record amounts. How was this possible, given claims that global human emissions flattened out?

Does it really mean that forests and oceans are absorbing less carbon?

The Paris Accord "safe temperature level of 2 degrees C (hope 1.5)" is relative to a start year of 1750 (pre-industrial). Please remember this; it is VERY important!!



Here is a video methane made about a month ago



From Sam Carana

How Much Warming Have Humans Caused?

How much did temperatures rise since 1900?

2 comments:

  1. A global average surface temperature is only an indicator of the Earth's heat and warming, because incoming insolation involves heat flow into the oceans (the major heat sink) and warming gases and producing a water phase change. A problem with the average temperature baseline, is that the further back the records, the less accurate they are for a global averages. There is no hard way to set a baseline and it is always approximate and has to be agreed as a standard. It seems that there is no agreed standard because the data are imperfect and the interpretation is evolving. It does not appear that this is some kind of conspiracy. The following quote suggests a standard would be helpful, and that 2015 was the first year >1C above a pre-industrial baseline. What happens if the global mean surface temperatures then fall the following year, because of variability, are you then going to say that the planet cooled? Oh!

    QUOTE

    "A new analysis by an international team of researchers aims to better define the pre-industrial baseline, informing the world’s decision makers on the required limits to greenhouse gas emissions needed to meet the terms of the Paris agreement. The study concludes that 2015 was likely the first time in recorded history that global temperatures were more than 1°C above pre-industrial levels."

    https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2017/defining-pre-industrial/

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1

    http://www.research.ed.ac.uk/portal/files/30838296/30837802._AAM._Hegerl._Schurer..pdf

    QUOTE

    Climate Central compared 2016’s temperature anomalies to an 1881-1910 average temperature baseline, the earliest date for which global temperature data are considered reliable.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-flirts-with-a-1-5-degree-celsius-global-warming-threshold1/

    QUOTE

    Paris Agreement (A2):

    "(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below
    2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature
    increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would
    significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; "

    It doesn't say which years make up the pre-industrial period.

    QUOTE

    BBC Article:

    "At the moment, researchers tend to use the period 1850-1900, and this will often be described as "pre-industrial"."

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38745937



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  2. Whatever the situation we are stuck with a situation of perhaps 10yts latent heat still to be absorbed even if no more emissions take place...,ugh Allan

    ReplyDelete