Thursday 12 March 2020

The Dow CRASHES




Stocks Puke Into Bear 

Market As US Financial 



11 March, 2020

Today the stench of a desperate liquidity scramble as The Dollar rallied while Stocks, Bonds, Bitcoin, Crude, and Gold were all dumped.

The Dow and S&P crash into a bear market...erasing most of the Trump rally...


This is the fastest drawdown from a peak into bear market in history, and worst start to a year since 2009...
Source: Bloomberg
US Financial Conditions are tightening massively...
Source: Bloomberg
Crashing at the fastest pace since Lehman... (NOTE - the sudden drop is reminiscent of the first moments of crisis in August 2007)
Source: Bloomberg
With a massive dollar shortage evident...
Source: Bloomberg
Forcing The Fed to puke liquidity into the markets...
Source: Bloomberg
Which is perhaps why the market is now demanding 82bps of rate-cuts next week by The Fed...
Source: Bloomberg
Today was a bloodbath in US equities with Small Caps and The Dow hammered hardest...
Dow Futures show the week's carnage best - just make sure to check the scale, these are simply massive swings...
And on the week, Small Caps are down almost 13%...
The Dow was the biggest underperformer because Boeing stock crashed today, but it was the CDS that is more worrying...
Source: Bloomberg
Virus-related travel and leisure sectors were hammered...
Source: Bloomberg
Bank stocks were clubbed like a baby seal today, now down a stunning 10-16% on the week alone!
Source: Bloomberg
VIX surged back above 50 today...
As Bloomberg details, the historic oil-market collapse that’s dragging down shares of the biggest Western explorers is swelling yields on investor payouts. The elite cohort of large international drillers known as the supermajors - Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp., Total SA and BP Plc - now are churning out bloated yields that dwarf those paid by the broader S&P 500 Index.
Source: Bloomberg
Credit markets are collapsing with HY spreads smashing wider...
Source: Bloomberg
And IG spreads are exploding in the US...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were very mixed today with the short-end rallying (2Y -5bps) and long-end selling off (30Y +5bps)...
Source: Bloomberg
10Y Yields pushed back above the pre-weekend plunge levels...
Source: Bloomberg
The Dollar rallied today as everything as was sold - suggesting a massive scramble for liquidity...
Source: Bloomberg
Rather notably, Developed Market FX is now trading with a higher vol than Emerging Market FX...
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos continued to slide lower, with Ethereum hammered today...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was battered back below $8000...
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum plunged back below $200...
Source: Bloomberg
Commodities were all lower today...
Source: Bloomberg
WTI's hopeful rally ended today with prices back to a $32 handle...
Gold was sold today too alongside bonds, bitcoin, and stocks...
And for a sense of just how much oil has crashed, the number of barrels that an ounce of gold can buy is exploding...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Bloomberg notes that investors are piling into gold day-after-day as concerns escalate about the impact of the coronavirus, markets gyrate, and rate-cut expectations jump. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds expanded 55 tons in the three days to Tuesday, with increases seen both on days when S&P 500 Indexsank, as well as posting gains. The tally stands at a fresh record, and year-to-date inflows already total more than half of the 323.4 tons added in 2019.
Source: Bloomberg
This week is the worst for a stock/bond portfolio since Lehman...
Source: Bloomberg
And investors have swung from "Extreme Greed" to "Extreme Fear" at the fastest pace on record...


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