Tuesday, 24 March 2020

Global dimming and coronavirus

I have been so taken up with reporting on the pandemic that I have neglected to report on this important aspect.

Edge of Extinction: Managing COVID-19 and the Aerosol Masking Effect

From Paul Beckwith

Warming we can expect from Global Dimming reduction due to Coronavirus Industrial Shutdowns

Part one

Part two

Part three

Global Dimming from industrial and transportation aerosols is likely between 0.25C and 1.1C with a best estimate of 0.5C. As global industry/transportation shutters due to our coronavirus actions, the sky clears due to reduced pollution, unmasking global dimming. My educated best guess on the size of the direct effect warming pulse is 0.25C globally if half of industry shuts down, realized as a 0.5C warning over land and 0.125C warming over the oceans. Maybe double these numbers with indirect effects from cloud changes. Also, daily temperature range will increase, specifically due to shutdown of the airline industry.

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