Sunday, 15 March 2020

Coronavirus headlines - 14 March, 2020

News headlines are coming through, thick and fast so it is difficult to keep up.

I shall keep adding to this during the day.








Restaurants, entertainment venues and most shops are to shut down in France from midnight on as the French government is struggling to contain the coronavirus pandemic that has killed 91 people there.

Following an increase of nearly 1,000 cases of coronavirus and 12 new deaths on Saturday, French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe ordered all non-essential public places to be closed. Philippe also encouraged citizens to limit their travel, especially between cities.

A total of 91 people have died from coronavirus in the country, and Saturday saw confirmed cases rise to 4,499.





Authorities in Madrid have told residents to stay at home, as Seville cancel the Holy Week celebrations.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government have come under fire for getting off to a slow start with coronavirus. They only began to introduce serious measures this week as numbers of coronavirus rates soared. The opposition has criticised the government for letting events like International Women’s Day marches go ahead a week ago.

As well as urging people to stay at home, Madrid city council has just announced that all parks in the capital will be closed from 4pm local time today.

Given the crowds of people who are unfortunately ignoring all the warnings and congregating in Madrid’s public spaces, the mayor has given the order to close all of the city’s parks and gardens from 4pm,” it said in a tweet.

There are now 5,753 cases and 136 deaths in Spain. 2,940 of the cases are in the Madrid region


Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said the ban will come into force at midnight and apply to all international visitors travelling 'for professional, private, study or tourist reasons'.


It will not include Belarusians, members of official delegations and residents of Russia.


Mikhail Mishustin said the ban will come into force at midnight and apply to all international visitors travelling 'for professional, private, study or tourist reasons'. Pictured: Medical workers in Novomoskovsky on Saturday +1


As of yesterday Russia confirmed it had recorded 45 cases of the virus as the epicentre of the pandemic swept from Asia to Europe.


Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 24 residents of the city were infected and new measures were needed to stop the virus from spreading further.

'Parents will decide whether their child will keep going to school or remain home,' Sobyanin wrote on his website.

'Every family can have different circumstances and kids' immunity is different.' He said the measure would remain in place until further notice.

Russian authorities are screening passengers returning home and ordering them to remain in self-isolation for two weeks even if they do not experience any symptoms.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8111829/Russia-shuts-land-borders-New-Zealand-introduces-toughest-border-restrictions-world.html


https://www.irishpost.com/news/breaking-varadkar-announces-ireland-will-go-lockdown-6pm-today-march-29-181528

















A supermarket in London

No photo description available.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-olympics-idUSKBN21109C



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-update-testing-news-herd-immunity-who-uk-cases-map-a9402051.html




The UK's chief scientific adviser has said the government wants 60 per cent of the population to catch coronavirus to try and create “herd immunity” to protect against the virus becoming an annual crisis.

Sir Patrick Vallance told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme that he thought the coronavirus was likely to become an "annual virus" and that the strategy was to limit the impact on the NHS but not stop the virus completely.

He said: “What we don't want is everybody to end up getting it in a short period of time so we swamp and overwhelm NHS services - that's the flattening of the peak," he said.


"You can't stop it, so you should end up with a broader peak during which time you'd anticipate that more people would get immunity to this. That in itself becomes a protective part of this process.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-uk-nhs-outbreak-pandemic-government-a9399101.html







https://iranian.com/2020/03/12/russia-hands-to-iran-coronavirus-diagnostic-systems-designed-for-50000-tests-watchdog/#.Xmy1sQmKwpI.facebook




https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/446066/Chinese-people-firms-send-new-anti-corona-aid-to-Iran


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8110163/Mexico-wants-close-border-Americans-stop-spread-coronavirus.html?ito=social-facebook


From Hal Turner


Model to give us some understanding of the next few weeks..…

If we look at all the possibilities, as of March 13th, in Italy there were between 1 million and 1.6 million infected people with COVID19.

This is a frightening number, because in the next 3 weeks, considering the collapsed healthcare system in Italy...we can expect that 18% of those 1-1.6 million people to die, because they can't have access to an ICU bed or ventilator.

This is 180,000 to 288,000 deaths in Italy in the next 3 weeks.

HOWEVER, considering that Lombardy, and later on, the entire Italy was put in lock-down, the real number of infected people in Italy as of March 13th to be about 40% LOWER, because most of the cases would be infected in the last 4-5 days IF THERE WOULD BE NO LOCK-DOWNS.

The most optimistic number of infected Italians, would be 600,000. Applying a 10% error, it could be as low as 520,000 people.

In the next 3 weeks, 18% of 520,000 people will die...and that is roughly 93,600 deaths.

This is the "best" case scenario for Italy...I have no words. That is a median number of deaths of 4,400 / day, for the next 21 days in Italy.

The thing is, that this number will be HUGE in the last week of the next 3 weeks, more then half of the 93k+ deaths taking place in the last week.

It is still a massive number, not low enough to have any positive impact for the healthcare system.

MORE:
Here’s something that’s absolutely terrifying: a comparison of the age distributions of Covid-19 cases in Italy, where they are only testing people who show symptoms, and S. Korea, which has broad testing. A whole lot of 20-29 year olds are out there who feel just fine but are VERY contagious. They have the sickness, but do not know it, and they're spreading it.

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