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The neo-Nazi junta in Kiev dramatically increases its efforts to provoke Russian into an intervention
16
June, 2014
By
now you have all already probably heard it. The CEO of
Gazprom, Alexei Miller, has
announced that Russia was now implementing a "prepayment only"
gas delivery plan for the Ukraine and Lavrov
has announced that
he has "nothing to talk about" with the Ukie
clown currently impersonating a Foreign Minister,
Andrii Deshchytsia, and that he "would not meet with him".
Unlike the always calm and impeccably diplomatic Lavrov, Miller made
no effort to show his complete disgust with, and contempt for, the
junta in Kiev whom he clearly sees as blackmailing and stealing
mobsters. This was especially evident when he said that the
amount of gas the Ukies had set aside in their reserves was exactly
the amount of gas which they were now refusing to pay for. To
put it in plain English: the Ukies stole gas from Russia to fill up
their reserves and they are about to begin stealing gas bought by
the Europeans. Nice folks indeed. Very "Euro-compatible"
I suppose...
So my first reaction was to rejoice that Lavrov and Miller and finally expressed their total disgust and treated the junta leader with the disgust and contempt they deserve. But then a very unpleasant thought crept up into my mind: is that not exactly what the Ukies wanted?
As I have written a million times now - the junta in power in Kiev is doomed, Banderastan is not viable, the rump-Ukraine is in ruins and terminally broke and there is nobody in the West who can do anything about it. And I bet you that the Ukies know that. This is why from their point of view involving the Russians is vital as Russia is the *only* possible scapegoat on which they can blame it all. So now Russia has "cut off gas" and the Russian Foreign Minister has announced that he will "refuse to meet" with his "Ukrainian counterpart". You know how the Ukie propaganda machine will present that? It will be something along these lines:
For all our efforts to negotiate in good faith with the Moskals who are occupying our land and sending in terrorists to kill our people, the Kremlin imperialists have decided to use the "gas weapon" against our people. Worse, instead of thanking our Miniser of Foreign affairs who, at a great personal risk for himself, confronted a justifiably outraged crowed and calmed them down with some manly humor and thereby saved the Russian "diplomats" (who are really all FSB spies) from the righteous wrath of the people, they have now announced that they will refuse to meet with him. Yet again, the Moskals have shown that they belong to steppes of Asia and not into the community of civilized European nations. Etc. etc. etc.
And, of course, the Ukies will get yet another standing ovation from the western politicians and corporate media. This is so predictable that it is not even funny anymore. But there is something which worries me much more: the Ukie tactic is a sound one. Why?
Well, think of it. If one side is truly desperate to provoke the other side, what are the chances that it will fail? If you and I met somewhere and I would put all my energy and creativity towards the sole goal of getting your attention and force you to respond - how long do you think it will take me to get what I want?
The same applies here. All the Ukies need to do is escalate, escalate and escalate even further, and since no matter what they do the Psakis in the West will always whitewash it, approve it or even praise it, there is nothing holding the neo-Nazi junta back. This is a small except of what Juan wrote to me today:
So my first reaction was to rejoice that Lavrov and Miller and finally expressed their total disgust and treated the junta leader with the disgust and contempt they deserve. But then a very unpleasant thought crept up into my mind: is that not exactly what the Ukies wanted?
As I have written a million times now - the junta in power in Kiev is doomed, Banderastan is not viable, the rump-Ukraine is in ruins and terminally broke and there is nobody in the West who can do anything about it. And I bet you that the Ukies know that. This is why from their point of view involving the Russians is vital as Russia is the *only* possible scapegoat on which they can blame it all. So now Russia has "cut off gas" and the Russian Foreign Minister has announced that he will "refuse to meet" with his "Ukrainian counterpart". You know how the Ukie propaganda machine will present that? It will be something along these lines:
For all our efforts to negotiate in good faith with the Moskals who are occupying our land and sending in terrorists to kill our people, the Kremlin imperialists have decided to use the "gas weapon" against our people. Worse, instead of thanking our Miniser of Foreign affairs who, at a great personal risk for himself, confronted a justifiably outraged crowed and calmed them down with some manly humor and thereby saved the Russian "diplomats" (who are really all FSB spies) from the righteous wrath of the people, they have now announced that they will refuse to meet with him. Yet again, the Moskals have shown that they belong to steppes of Asia and not into the community of civilized European nations. Etc. etc. etc.
And, of course, the Ukies will get yet another standing ovation from the western politicians and corporate media. This is so predictable that it is not even funny anymore. But there is something which worries me much more: the Ukie tactic is a sound one. Why?
Well, think of it. If one side is truly desperate to provoke the other side, what are the chances that it will fail? If you and I met somewhere and I would put all my energy and creativity towards the sole goal of getting your attention and force you to respond - how long do you think it will take me to get what I want?
The same applies here. All the Ukies need to do is escalate, escalate and escalate even further, and since no matter what they do the Psakis in the West will always whitewash it, approve it or even praise it, there is nothing holding the neo-Nazi junta back. This is a small except of what Juan wrote to me today:
Kramatorsk as I write is being flattened, the entire city is under intense bombardment including Grad and Hurricane MLRS. Everything, industrial areas, shopping areas, infrastructure areas, living areas, is being flattened. We're going to have I think hundreds if not a thousand dead civilians. Is this the atrocity needed to bring in Russia? I don't know. Yet.
Two
cities in Europe are turned into new Oradour-sur-Glane and
nobody in the West gives a damn. Germany and France pass laws
basically forbidding the honest historical research of the Nazi
atrocities in WWII while at the same time not only denying, but
pro-actively supporting Nazi atrocities in a country which they
claim is part of Europe. How crazy can this get?!
It get's better. Everybody, and I mean everybody, was fully aware that the Ukies would sooner or later begin to siphon-off European gas. It was therefore quite evident that the sound solution was to have a North Stream and a South Stream bypassing Banderastan to make sure that *European* gas (it's theirs from the moment they buy it!) would get delivered. But no, the EU criticizes Bulgaria, McCain takes a trip to Sophia and, voilà, the Bulgarians are stopping the construction of South Stream which, of course, will end up hurting only the EU (not Russia or the USA!).
So let's sum it up:
It get's better. Everybody, and I mean everybody, was fully aware that the Ukies would sooner or later begin to siphon-off European gas. It was therefore quite evident that the sound solution was to have a North Stream and a South Stream bypassing Banderastan to make sure that *European* gas (it's theirs from the moment they buy it!) would get delivered. But no, the EU criticizes Bulgaria, McCain takes a trip to Sophia and, voilà, the Bulgarians are stopping the construction of South Stream which, of course, will end up hurting only the EU (not Russia or the USA!).
So let's sum it up:
- The neo-Nazi junta in Kiev cannot survive and it knows it
- Uncle Sam is desperate to pull Russia into a military intervention
- The EU is was is delicately called a "punk ass bitch" in US jail
So
what are the Russian chances to not be provoked in this
context?
Pretty close to zero I think.
What Lavrov and Miller did today or, should I say, were forced to today is just a first step. In essence, even though Miller and Lavrov did the right thing, they still gave the Ukies exactly what they wanted. And this scary. Because this "success" will breed more attempts to force Russia to react. What can come next?
As I wrote yesterday, "I would not put it past them to try an air or missile strike on, say, a kindergarten in Crimea or even in Belgorod. They could also kidnap a delivery man for a Russian company still operating in Kiev or heroically massacre of minibus with an Aeroflot crew on the way to the airport". They can also attack a Russian border post, bomb a Russian vessel in the Black Sea, or even blow up a church belonging to the Moscow Patriarchate. And then what? Will Russia still only verbally protest?
I am not making these up. There has been already at least one case when a Ukrainian Su-25 penetrated into Russian airspace to attack a border post controlled by the NDF. The Russian could have *easily* shot it down (they have the technology needed to shut down pretty much all of the Novorussian airspace without having to move a single missile batteries or radar across the border). But they chose not to simply because by the time they would need to prove that the intruder was in Russian airspace the Ukie version (a Russian aggression, of course) would have made all the front page news. Remember how long it took the West to eventually and most reluctantly admit that "yeah, okay, it was the Georgian side which attacked first"? How many people today even heard about this admission anyway?
I am pretty darn sure that the folks in the Kremlin are fully aware of all that and, judging by what some people close to the Kremlin are saying, the decision has been made in Moscow to wait as long as possible simply to get a justification for the inevitable Russian intervention which would be as clear cut as possible. Please understand that Russia does not need to make any specific preparatory move to intervene in Novorossia. All that NATO nonsense about Russian troop movement and concentrations along the border is just propaganda for civilians. The fact is that Putin can give the order and in the next 30 minutes the entire airspace of Donbass will become a no-fly zone, within the next 60 minutes most Ukrainian artillery positions and command posts will be destroyed by missile strikes after which the NDF (backed by a few more volunteers) will be basically sufficient to take full control of the Donbass. As for the Ukie death-squads they will run for their lives as fast as they can. The only problem is timing. The Kremlin is desperately waiting for a sign that the Europeans are slowly coming to realize the monster which they have unleashed in the Ukraine. I personally do not believe that the Europeans will suddenly grow a conscience or a spine and considering the mass murder taking place today in Novorossia I continue to believe that a Russian intervention is inevitable.
In the meantime, the provocations will continue. I just saw footage of the two journalists of the Russian TV channel Zvezda News which had been kidnapped by a Ukrainian death-squad and for which the Ukies had wanted a $200'000 ransom. Though neither did go into any details, both had been severely beaten, one had a glorious shiner under his eye while the other could not hear from his left ear. I have also heard news there had been an attempt to bomb the Russian consulate in Odessa and that somebody had prevented it (local cops?) and that it all ended in a huge brawl. And, of course, bomb and shells are raining down on Kramatorsk and Slaviansk right now - the terror operation is clearly in full swing.
The Ukies will "win" in the sense that they will succeed in triggering a Russian intervention which they will try hard to turn into a war. If they do, it will be a short one, but the political damage will be immense. So I suppose a final rationale for Putin to wait for as long as possible is to get as high a percentage of the Russian population truly outraged before moving in so as to make this not a "Putin decision" but a "Russian people demand".
I thus fully concur with Juan: it will get a lot worse before it gets better and lots of people will die. But at the end, Russia, and the rest of us, will prevail. Of that I am sure.
The Saker
Pretty close to zero I think.
What Lavrov and Miller did today or, should I say, were forced to today is just a first step. In essence, even though Miller and Lavrov did the right thing, they still gave the Ukies exactly what they wanted. And this scary. Because this "success" will breed more attempts to force Russia to react. What can come next?
As I wrote yesterday, "I would not put it past them to try an air or missile strike on, say, a kindergarten in Crimea or even in Belgorod. They could also kidnap a delivery man for a Russian company still operating in Kiev or heroically massacre of minibus with an Aeroflot crew on the way to the airport". They can also attack a Russian border post, bomb a Russian vessel in the Black Sea, or even blow up a church belonging to the Moscow Patriarchate. And then what? Will Russia still only verbally protest?
I am not making these up. There has been already at least one case when a Ukrainian Su-25 penetrated into Russian airspace to attack a border post controlled by the NDF. The Russian could have *easily* shot it down (they have the technology needed to shut down pretty much all of the Novorussian airspace without having to move a single missile batteries or radar across the border). But they chose not to simply because by the time they would need to prove that the intruder was in Russian airspace the Ukie version (a Russian aggression, of course) would have made all the front page news. Remember how long it took the West to eventually and most reluctantly admit that "yeah, okay, it was the Georgian side which attacked first"? How many people today even heard about this admission anyway?
I am pretty darn sure that the folks in the Kremlin are fully aware of all that and, judging by what some people close to the Kremlin are saying, the decision has been made in Moscow to wait as long as possible simply to get a justification for the inevitable Russian intervention which would be as clear cut as possible. Please understand that Russia does not need to make any specific preparatory move to intervene in Novorossia. All that NATO nonsense about Russian troop movement and concentrations along the border is just propaganda for civilians. The fact is that Putin can give the order and in the next 30 minutes the entire airspace of Donbass will become a no-fly zone, within the next 60 minutes most Ukrainian artillery positions and command posts will be destroyed by missile strikes after which the NDF (backed by a few more volunteers) will be basically sufficient to take full control of the Donbass. As for the Ukie death-squads they will run for their lives as fast as they can. The only problem is timing. The Kremlin is desperately waiting for a sign that the Europeans are slowly coming to realize the monster which they have unleashed in the Ukraine. I personally do not believe that the Europeans will suddenly grow a conscience or a spine and considering the mass murder taking place today in Novorossia I continue to believe that a Russian intervention is inevitable.
In the meantime, the provocations will continue. I just saw footage of the two journalists of the Russian TV channel Zvezda News which had been kidnapped by a Ukrainian death-squad and for which the Ukies had wanted a $200'000 ransom. Though neither did go into any details, both had been severely beaten, one had a glorious shiner under his eye while the other could not hear from his left ear. I have also heard news there had been an attempt to bomb the Russian consulate in Odessa and that somebody had prevented it (local cops?) and that it all ended in a huge brawl. And, of course, bomb and shells are raining down on Kramatorsk and Slaviansk right now - the terror operation is clearly in full swing.
The Ukies will "win" in the sense that they will succeed in triggering a Russian intervention which they will try hard to turn into a war. If they do, it will be a short one, but the political damage will be immense. So I suppose a final rationale for Putin to wait for as long as possible is to get as high a percentage of the Russian population truly outraged before moving in so as to make this not a "Putin decision" but a "Russian people demand".
I thus fully concur with Juan: it will get a lot worse before it gets better and lots of people will die. But at the end, Russia, and the rest of us, will prevail. Of that I am sure.
The Saker
Message to the readers of this blog from Juan
16
June, 2014
'A
scorecard for the US "lukewarm war" on Russia - strategic
and tactical levels'
is an excellent synopsis by The Saker of the entire situation in
Ukeland, Novorossiya and the World. When I first came in
contact with Saker I realized within a nanosecond that he and most
of the posters on this blog were intellectually far above my narrow
view. I am a 'nuts and bolts' man and I mentioned in one of my first
posts that while Saker and many others here had and have a vast
overview of the world I could see not much beyond my weapon sights
in days past and to an extent to this day.
However, having looked through weapons sights I can at least try to give you on this blog an idea of what has and is happening for those who are boots in the mud, or, today it being summer, boots in the dust, and somewhat of an idea of what to expect in the daily grind and semi chaos of small unit actions. I will as usual try not to give the Nats any idea at all of what they are doing right and what they are doing wrong. For our boys I do from time to time mention things to people I know.
In small unit tactics, small unit being fire team, squad and platoon sized ops plus Recon activities, you will have good days and you will have bad days. No army, no regiment, no rota (company), no section has ever enjoyed complete and unbroken success in any war since the beginning of time. Small units are tactical units, period. The combination of the activities of many tactical units creates strategy, but for a single small unit to have any real affect on strategy is quite rare and in reality are for the history books and studies at war colleges. Reality is small units are expendable in the grand strategic scenario.
A small unit will hold, for instance, a road block post, a bridge, a relatively important terrain feature or minor communications hub. A small unit can not and will not hold their position against an overwhelming enemy attack. Faced with massive superiority of an enemy force arrayed against it the unit will simply report in to Command, give a hasty sitrep, put up a short resistance to the enemy force and then withdraw, inflicting what casualties they can before and during the tactical withdrawal. If Command decides the terrain feature is worth holding then the small unit fights as hard as possible until help arrives from Command. The reality is the Army of Novorossiya can rarely contest in great numbers an action by the Nats when said Nats bring all their forces to bear, although this reality has in fact been changing in the last two weeks or so. Remember, a scant month or so ago the Army of Novorossiya didn't have heavy weapons or even more than a precious few medium machine guns. Most of what they did have and have today was donated by the Nats army one way or another. A tactical withdrawal of a few hundred meters generally has precisely zero to do with overall Strategy in general. The fly in the ointment of that statement is a whole series of tactical withdrawals in a short period of time adds up to a strategic withdrawal and that can have a distressing affect on the overall strategy of your command structure.
Normal life for a small unit is day in day out grinding hours of boredom interspersed with seconds and minutes of hard fighting. The soldiers clean weapons and equipment always, first and foremost, improve their positions as much as possible with what is to hand, eat, clean themselves, some always on the firing steps so to speak and keeping a keen eye out for any untoward activity in the area and they will generally have LPOP's (listening/observation posts) out in front to give early warning of anything untoward coming their way. This activity is 24 hours a day seven days a week. There is no holiday when you are in the line even if the 'line' is a 30 m wide position out in the middle of nowhere. You get to know your fellow soldiers in your unit very well as you wile away the endless hours talking about everything in the world. As with civilian life the soldiers will run the gamut from good to bad to average. The bad don't last long, they tend to be attrited out of a combat unit either by enemy action or their sarjanti (sergeants). Bravery don't mean squat when you're facing half a dozen nats tanks or BMP's and said nats are irritated to an extreme. What civilians call 'bravery' is almost always simply the unthinking actions of soldiers in protecting their comrades and holding their position as ordered. It is only after the fact that 'bravery' is adjudged.
A small unit is, as mentioned, expendable. This happens. Never underestimate the fighting abilities of your enemy and this includes the Nats army. The Nats do, indeed, have some units that will fight and fight hard plus at this time the enemy still has overwhelming numbers and vast equipment. There will be times, both in static defense or in patrols, where our boys will lose and have lost. Our casualties reflect this reality. We will lose positions, we will lose villages and towns, we will lose entire tactical units, no doubt. I also have no doubts that in the end we will prevail but our boys will pay and are paying a heavy price in blood.
Civilians. As I have aged I have mellowed and I remember every dead civilian face I've ever seen. I can not and do not dwell on them, but I remember. My old Sarjant's philosophy was 'civilians get in the way'. Neither he back then nor I today mean the poor civilians in Novorossiya who are mercilessly bombarded day and night by the thugs from Kiev. I mean that when taking or holding a position there will often be civilians in the area. Our task is to either take or hold a position. Civilians can be and often are foolish. Especially in today's times they have all seen movies that in no way, shape or form reflect reality. I've seen civilians stand beside a tank that was actively fighting and firing at their enemy and I saw the civilians die when the tank was hit and brewed up. Nothing I or we could do. Every civilian death is a tragedy, but for God's sake when civilians hear or see active combat, go and hide! Find a hole, a ditch, a thick wall, run away from the shooting, anything, but get the hell out of the way and take the children with you! Our boys will do what they can to protect you but reality is they are soldiers who are fighting and ever second you take them from or distract them from their task at hands risks not only them personally but the success of the operation they are involved in and if they fail in that operation it puts you, the civilians, in the tender mercies of the nats/right sector gentlemen.
Bottom line, we will lose men and units and positions just as we take positions and cause the enemy to lose men and units. This is the reality of War. One can not and must not dwell on the losses of men and small units, however cold and hard that may sound.
My friends, do not ever get discouraged. Remember our men, women and children who have fallen and those who will fall today, tomorrow, and every day until we achieve the victory I know is coming. Do not expect the Russian Army to cross the borders and help Novorossiya. This will not happen unless The West unleashes some horrendous attack on civilians that kills thousands of them. Can The West do this? Yes. Will The West do this? I don't know. I pray The West doesn't and I hope my, and our, prayers are answered.
Juan
However, having looked through weapons sights I can at least try to give you on this blog an idea of what has and is happening for those who are boots in the mud, or, today it being summer, boots in the dust, and somewhat of an idea of what to expect in the daily grind and semi chaos of small unit actions. I will as usual try not to give the Nats any idea at all of what they are doing right and what they are doing wrong. For our boys I do from time to time mention things to people I know.
In small unit tactics, small unit being fire team, squad and platoon sized ops plus Recon activities, you will have good days and you will have bad days. No army, no regiment, no rota (company), no section has ever enjoyed complete and unbroken success in any war since the beginning of time. Small units are tactical units, period. The combination of the activities of many tactical units creates strategy, but for a single small unit to have any real affect on strategy is quite rare and in reality are for the history books and studies at war colleges. Reality is small units are expendable in the grand strategic scenario.
A small unit will hold, for instance, a road block post, a bridge, a relatively important terrain feature or minor communications hub. A small unit can not and will not hold their position against an overwhelming enemy attack. Faced with massive superiority of an enemy force arrayed against it the unit will simply report in to Command, give a hasty sitrep, put up a short resistance to the enemy force and then withdraw, inflicting what casualties they can before and during the tactical withdrawal. If Command decides the terrain feature is worth holding then the small unit fights as hard as possible until help arrives from Command. The reality is the Army of Novorossiya can rarely contest in great numbers an action by the Nats when said Nats bring all their forces to bear, although this reality has in fact been changing in the last two weeks or so. Remember, a scant month or so ago the Army of Novorossiya didn't have heavy weapons or even more than a precious few medium machine guns. Most of what they did have and have today was donated by the Nats army one way or another. A tactical withdrawal of a few hundred meters generally has precisely zero to do with overall Strategy in general. The fly in the ointment of that statement is a whole series of tactical withdrawals in a short period of time adds up to a strategic withdrawal and that can have a distressing affect on the overall strategy of your command structure.
Normal life for a small unit is day in day out grinding hours of boredom interspersed with seconds and minutes of hard fighting. The soldiers clean weapons and equipment always, first and foremost, improve their positions as much as possible with what is to hand, eat, clean themselves, some always on the firing steps so to speak and keeping a keen eye out for any untoward activity in the area and they will generally have LPOP's (listening/observation posts) out in front to give early warning of anything untoward coming their way. This activity is 24 hours a day seven days a week. There is no holiday when you are in the line even if the 'line' is a 30 m wide position out in the middle of nowhere. You get to know your fellow soldiers in your unit very well as you wile away the endless hours talking about everything in the world. As with civilian life the soldiers will run the gamut from good to bad to average. The bad don't last long, they tend to be attrited out of a combat unit either by enemy action or their sarjanti (sergeants). Bravery don't mean squat when you're facing half a dozen nats tanks or BMP's and said nats are irritated to an extreme. What civilians call 'bravery' is almost always simply the unthinking actions of soldiers in protecting their comrades and holding their position as ordered. It is only after the fact that 'bravery' is adjudged.
A small unit is, as mentioned, expendable. This happens. Never underestimate the fighting abilities of your enemy and this includes the Nats army. The Nats do, indeed, have some units that will fight and fight hard plus at this time the enemy still has overwhelming numbers and vast equipment. There will be times, both in static defense or in patrols, where our boys will lose and have lost. Our casualties reflect this reality. We will lose positions, we will lose villages and towns, we will lose entire tactical units, no doubt. I also have no doubts that in the end we will prevail but our boys will pay and are paying a heavy price in blood.
Civilians. As I have aged I have mellowed and I remember every dead civilian face I've ever seen. I can not and do not dwell on them, but I remember. My old Sarjant's philosophy was 'civilians get in the way'. Neither he back then nor I today mean the poor civilians in Novorossiya who are mercilessly bombarded day and night by the thugs from Kiev. I mean that when taking or holding a position there will often be civilians in the area. Our task is to either take or hold a position. Civilians can be and often are foolish. Especially in today's times they have all seen movies that in no way, shape or form reflect reality. I've seen civilians stand beside a tank that was actively fighting and firing at their enemy and I saw the civilians die when the tank was hit and brewed up. Nothing I or we could do. Every civilian death is a tragedy, but for God's sake when civilians hear or see active combat, go and hide! Find a hole, a ditch, a thick wall, run away from the shooting, anything, but get the hell out of the way and take the children with you! Our boys will do what they can to protect you but reality is they are soldiers who are fighting and ever second you take them from or distract them from their task at hands risks not only them personally but the success of the operation they are involved in and if they fail in that operation it puts you, the civilians, in the tender mercies of the nats/right sector gentlemen.
Bottom line, we will lose men and units and positions just as we take positions and cause the enemy to lose men and units. This is the reality of War. One can not and must not dwell on the losses of men and small units, however cold and hard that may sound.
My friends, do not ever get discouraged. Remember our men, women and children who have fallen and those who will fall today, tomorrow, and every day until we achieve the victory I know is coming. Do not expect the Russian Army to cross the borders and help Novorossiya. This will not happen unless The West unleashes some horrendous attack on civilians that kills thousands of them. Can The West do this? Yes. Will The West do this? I don't know. I pray The West doesn't and I hope my, and our, prayers are answered.
Juan
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