Russian and Ukraine: Op-ed from the Saker

The time has come for Putin to make the most important decision of his Presidency

the Vineyard of the Saker,

17 June, 2014

Today I would like to just share two thoughts with you and suggest that each and every one of you come to his/her own conclusions.

First, Russia was literally "sucked into" WWI by the Germany.  Russia did not have to enter the war as Russia herself was not attacked.  "Only" Serbia was.  Russia was not ready to enter the war, but the Czar-Martyr Saint Nicholas II decided that it was his Christian duty was to take the defense of the Serbian people even if all pragmatic considerations were clearly advocating against a Russian intervention.  This war soon turned out to be extremely costly for Russia and greatly contributed to the weakening of the Russian monarchy which eventually resulted in a Aristocratic-Masonic coup (February 1917) followed by a Jewish-Bolshevik coup (October 1917).  Did the Czar do the right thing when he decided to defend the Serbian nation at the potential cost of his own Empire, the last Christian Empire in history?  It is a fact that the Serbian Prince Alexander and the Serbian people have always shown an immense and sincere gratitude to the Russian people and to Czar Nicholas II (whose first icon was painted on a fresco in Serbia, not Russia).  But Russia also liberated Bulgaria from the Ottoman yoke.  We now see the kind of "gratitude" Russia got from Bulgaria.  Will a liberated Novorossia be more like Serbia or more like Bulgaria?

Second, the level of outrage in Russia over the apparent Russian non-action in the face of what has now clearly become a systematic terror campaign against the people of Novorossia is immense.  If Putin does not take action *very* soon he will face a very serious challenge from many sectors of Russian society including the media, the Duma and even his own party "United Russia".  My personal opinion is that this "wait and see" game was probably aimed at deliberately getting the Russian public opinion in a state of rage similar to the one which preceded the 2nd Chechen war but if that is so, then now the Russian society has reached boiling point and that if Putin does not act very soon a political explosion will take place in Russia.  Every day now I see already "not so veiled at all" criticisms and expressions of disbelief at the Kremlin's "shameful passivity", and I am not talking about some small extremist party websites, but of the most watched and best known TV news and talkshows of mainstream Russian TV.  Reporters which used to be very pro-Putin are now clearly and openly expressing frustration maybe not at Putin personally (yet), but at "Moscow".  But the writing is on the wall for Putin now.  Furthermore, representatives of Novorussian authorities are now spending their time in Moscow going from one talk-show to another and making truly dramatic pleas for help.  In other words, Putin is days away from what will become his political suicide unless he takes action.  I would say that things have become so bad that even if the Novorossian Defense Forces have what it takes to keep the neo-Nazi death-squads mostly in check (and I believe that they do), the humanitarian situation is so bad (over 110'000 refugees already) that the pressure to have Russia intervene will continue to grow regardless of the military equation.

With these elements in mind, make your own conclusions now as to what Putin should/will do.

My personal belief is that a Russian intervention is imminent.

The Saker