Peter Lavelle confronts critics

Stop blaming Putin

Peter Lavelle

Via Facebook

I am really getting tired of the “something must be done” voices criticizing Vladimir Putin regarding Ukraine. The Washington-Nuland-Brussels-bullhorns of propaganda crowd created this mess in Ukraine, not Putin’s Russia. And it is NOT Putin’s obligation to mend what has been broken.

I don’t hold views to be popular and I know many people are frustrated with me because I do not support Russian military intervention at this time. Nor do I support openly arming anti-Kiev elements in Ukraine (other actors providing arms, material, and money clandestinely is another matter).

I still contend Washington wants Moscow to “invade Ukraine” as part of a boarder plan to destabilize Russia and then later forced regime change. (Living in Moscow for so many years I can assure there is a dangerous fifth column alive and well). Thus, officially staying on the sidelines is the most pragmatic policy at this time.

However, I am convinced Moscow has have a plan.

Washington’s entire approach to Ukraine is doomed to fail. One half of Ukraine cannot (for long) dominate the other half. The Americans are learning this now, though can’t admit this. I have no timeframe in mind at the moment, but we should consider the following:

The regime in Kiev is unstable. It lacks legitimate authority and extra-legal elements (i.e. Right Sector) have influence that is not institutionalized (yet). Simply put – the political status quo is unsustainable.

The ideological forces in Kiev cannot (legally) win elections. Nazis, fascists, and ultra-nationals do not believe in the ballot box. I expect on the back of parliamentary elections another uprising could consume Kiev.

It’s the economy, stupid! When Poroshenko signs the EU association agreement, Moscow will start pulling the rug out from under the Ukrainian economy. Add to this, the IMF’s austerity plans. A minority in Ukraine are fascists, but everyone in Ukraine is part of the economy. And Europe has to deal with the pressure point known as energy security.

I know all of the above sounds reasonable, because it is. The problem with this is the fact people are being murdered before our eyes. The west will not succeed in absorbing the whole of Ukraine. I am sure of this. But the cost of this failure will be the needless deaths of so many people. The west again has blood on its hands.

In the end, the country – if it is to remain united – will have to finally accept federalization and de-centralization. I don’t know when this will happen, but it will and Russia will have been right all along.

So stop blaming Putin…..

'Romans made a desert and called it peace; Americans make chaos and call it freedom'