Week
Four of the Russian Intervention in Syria: assessing the Vienna
declaration
I
would argue that, at least so far, Russia has achieved many important
goal in her intervention in Syria. Most importantly, the
Russian intervention in Syria forced the USA to agree to a conference
in which all the regional actors, including Iran, would be invited.
At the end of its proceedings the conference adopted a joint
statement which I have fully reposted
here: http://thesaker.is/joint-statement-final-declaration-on-the-results-of-the-syria-talks-in-vienna-as-agreed-by-participants/
I
believe that this statement represents a major diplomatic defeat for
the USA and yet another Russian diplomatic victory. Here some
points which have been agreed upon (with relevant section of the
declaration indicated in brackets):
- Iran will participate in the negotiations about the future of Syria (preamble)
- Syria will not be allowed to break up (#1)
- Syria will not be ruled by a religious regime (#1)
- The Syrian military will not be disbanded (#2)
- Daesh and other terrorists must be defeated (#6)
- The Syrian people will get to chose their leader (#8)
Now
let’s translate that into political terms and see what this
implies.
- The USA has failed to isolate Iran whose crucial role is now recognized by all
- The USA will not be allowed to partition into a Wahabistan and an Alawistan
- None of the factions supported by the US (all being religious) will be allowed to rule
- The Syrian military (which is solidly pro-Assad) will not be disbanded or disarmed
- All the factions supported by the US (all being Wahabi extremists) must be militarily defeated
- Assad will be allowed to remain in power (since he is by far the most popular leader)
Now,
I am not stupid or naive to believe for one second that the USA will
truly abide by these terms. Quite to the contrary. All I
am saying is that Russia has inflicted yet another massive diplomatic
defeat on the USA similar to the one Lough Erne or to the Minsk-1 and
Minsk-2 Agreements. In Lough Erne, for example, the USA
had to accept the following statement: “We call on the Syrian
authorities and opposition at the Geneva Conference jointly
to commit to destroying and expelling from Syria all organisations
and individuals affiliated to Al Qaeda, and any other non-state
actors linked to terrorism.”
In other words, Daesh-linked Wahabis were told to join forces with
the Syrian military to defeat Daesh! Of course, we all know
that this did not happen. But what is important here is that
the US
actions and policies are so indefensible that the USA has to condemn
or, at least, contradict them, in any public forum.
Let
me repeat this once more: what the US is doing on the ground, in
reality, is in complete and total contradiction with the declaratory
policy of the USA:
US
actions/policies/goals
|
US
official policy on Syria
|
Full
military support for Daesh
|
Categorical
opposition to Daesh
|
Promotion
of a Wahabi regime
|
Promotion
of a secular regime
|
Breakup
of Syria
|
Maintaining
a unitary Syria
|
Destruction
of the Syrian military
|
Maintaining
the Syria military
|
Removal
of Assad at any cost
|
Syrian
people get to elect Assad
|
Sabotage
of all Russian efforts
|
Collaboration
with Russia
|
Regime
change in Iran
|
Iran
as a partner
|
While,
at least so far, the USA has been successful in doing the exact
opposite of what it has been declaring, this becomes extremely
difficult once the Russian military is directly involved. This
was best illustrated by the surreal moment when following US
accusations that Russia was bombing the “wrong” guys the USA
refused to give Russia a list of bad guys and a list of good guys.
This
tactic, to force the USA to formally agree to something which they
oppose is also what Putin used in the Minsk-2 Agreement where the
Russians basically forced the USA and its puppet regime to accept a
dialog with the Novorussians even though such a dialog is absolutely
out of the question. This is what Russia is doing now: forcing
the USA to negotiate with Assad and Iran.
Russia’s
declared policies and actions in contrast, are as simple,
straightforward and in full conformity with each other: defeating
terrorists, support the legal Syrian government, uphold international
law. In Russia’s case, there is no need to hide anything and,
in fact, the Russians have been amazingly transparent about their
operations.
For
years now the USA has been dreaming of doing to Assad what was done
to Hussein and Gaddafi and they most definitely have the military
might to do so: what they are discovering, to their great distress,
is that Russia is capable of defeating US plans by skillfully using a
mix of intense diplomacy and limited military efforts. So far,
the US have not found a way of coping with this situation.
On
the military front the situation remain, at best, complex. The
best reports about the combat situation that I have found so far are,
yet again, on Colonel Cassad’s website. To make a long story
short and in sparing you all the details battle by battle, it appears
that the Syrian Army is making slow progress on many directions, but
it has been unable to capitalize on the Russian airstrikes and these
modest tactical successes have not produced any operational
breakthroughs. In simple terms: the government forces are
struggling very hard to achieve even modest progress.
I
am, by the way, in no way blaming the Syrians for that. The
frontlines are long, convoluted, the Wahabis are well dug in, the
Russian air force contingent is very small and can only do so much.
One Russian expert declared today that he believes that the Syrian
military lost about 85’000 men since the war began. If that
is true, it would explain, at least partially, the fact that the
Syrians are over-stretched and are having a hard time concentrating
enough forces in one location to achieve a breakthrough.
Still,
it is quite possible that the combined efforts of the Russians and
the Syrian will eventually yield an operational success and that the
Daesh forces will suddenly collapse, at least on one section of the
front. The problem with that is that both sides are in a race
for time: the next round of negotiations is scheduled in two weeks
already and, so far, neither side as much to show to come to the
negotiating table in a position of strength. Apparently, the
Americans are planning some kind of attack on Raqqa, and they want to
use primarily Kurdish forces. If so, then this is a rather
bizarre plan. After all, why would the Kurdish forces agree to
such a dangerous and potentially costly (in terms of equipment and
lives) operation far away from their own zones which they must
protect on more or less all directions?! In comparison, the
Russian plan of unblocking the Syrian military and helping it
reconquer Aleppo and the key highway linking Damascus to Homs and
Aleppo appears much more realistic, if full of potential
difficulties. If the Syrians fail to achieve these goals in the
next 2 weeks, then this will immensely complicate the upcoming
negotiations and might forces Iran and Hezbollah to commit a much
larger force to relieve the Syrian Army.
The
next couple of weeks will be crucial.
The
Saker
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