Seemorerocks: Flight 9268 - update

Was the Russian Metrojet plane shot down by Israeli or American missile during "Blue Flag 2015" exercises?

Моглали ракета, выпущенная израильским илиамериканским самолетом, сбить А321?

Israel Shamir

3 November, 2015

Translated by Kristina Rus

Aerial duels were conducted near the Egyptian border, along Metrojet flight path

Israeli and Western bloggers are linking the plane crash "Metrojet-9268" to "Blue Flag 2015" air exercises conducted in the area of the crash. These are the largest exercises of the Israeli air force with participation of the U.S. Air Force, Poland and Greece.

Israeli and American planes simulated air duels, simulated fighting two dozens kilometers from the crash site of the Russian aircraft. The exercises were based at Ovda airport, 70 km from Eilat and close to the Egyptian border, along which Metrojet flew.

This fact should be taken into account in the analysis of the crash of 9268. The Russian plane was flying at such a height that it could not be shot down by the Sinai militants. But whether to rule out an accidental strike by missiles fired from Israeli or American aircraft - let the experts respond to this question.

Metrojet - 9268 is not the first passenger plane crashed over the Sinai desert. In February 1973 the Israeli air force shot down a Libyan passenger airliner, which due to a strong sand storm have gone astray. It did not help the liner that it was flying directly West, towards Cairo, and not Israel. It was still hit, killing 108 of 113 people on board. The then Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir congratulated the commander of the Israeli air force with the achievement. Israel has still not apologized about civilians killed. No one was punished.

Ravid Gor, Russian Israeli journalist, has analyzed the current response of Russian Israelis to the collapse of Metrojet and called it "trolls dancing on the blood". Commenters reacted with joy to news that the Israeli army striked the armed forces of Syria, which are defended by the Russian military-space forces.

Yet it is difficult to assume that the plane was shot down deliberately.

Недалеко от египетской границы, вдоль которой летел Метроджет, проводились воздушные дуэли

Российский самолет летел на такой высоте, что его не могли сбить синайские боевики. Но можно ли исключить случайное попадание в этот самолет ракеты, выпущенной израильским или американским самолетом - на этот вопрос пусть ответят специалисты.Фото: РИА Новости

Израильские и западные блогеры начинают связывать крушение самолета "Метроджет-9268" с происходящими в районе крушения крупными авиаманеврами Blue Flag 2015. Это крупнейшие маневры израильских ВВС при участии ВВС США, Польши, Греции.

Израильские и американские самолеты имитировали воздушные дуэли, моделировали бои в двух десятках километров от места гибели российского самолета. Учения базировались на аэродроме Овда, в 70 км от Эйлата и недалеко от египетской границы, вдоль которой летел Метроджет.

Этот факт следует учесть при разборе полета 9268. Российский самолет летел на такой высоте, что его не могли сбить синайские боевики. Но можно ли исключить случайное попадание в этот самолет ракеты, выпущенной израильским или американским самолетом - на этот вопрос пусть ответят специалисты.

Метроджет - 9268 - не первый пассажирский самолет, потерпевший крушение над Синайской пустыней. В феврале 1973 израильские ВВС сбили ливийский пассажирский лайнер, который из-за сильной песчаной бури сбился с пути. Не помогло лайнеру и то, что он летел строго на запад, на Каир, не на Израиль. Его все же сбили, при чем погибло 108 из 113 человек на борту. Тогдашний израильский премьер Голда Меир поздравила командира израильских ВВС с достижением. Израиль так и не выразил сожаления по поводу убитых гражданских лиц. Никто не был наказан.

Равид Гор, русский израильский журналист, проанализировал нынешние реакции русских израильтян на крушение Метроджета и назвал их "плясками троллей на крови". С радостью отнеслись комментаторы и к удару израильской армии по вооруженным силам Сирии, которых защищает ВКС РФ.

Все же трудно предположить, что самолет был сбит умышленно.

Crash victims' injuries show midair explosion likely caused A321 crash – investigator

RT,

3 October, 2015

The nature of passengers’ injuries from the Russian jet that crashed in Egypt’s Sinai on Saturday may indicate that an explosion took place aboard before the plane hit the ground, an Egyptian doctor who examined the bodies said, Sputnik news agency reported.

"A large number of body parts may indicate that a powerful explosion took place aboard the plane before it hit the ground,"an Egyptian forensic expert told the agency.

A DNA analysis would be required to identify the victims of the Russian A321 airliner crash in Egypt, the expert added.

Earlier, Russian tabloid LifeNews claimed to have obtained the results of a forensic medical examination that allegedly stated that the passengers “in the tail section of the liner died because of so-called blast injuries.”

According to the broadcaster, they were diagnosed with burns of over 90 percent, with experts noting particles of metal and aircraft covering piercing the bodies of the deceased.

The people in the front part of the plane died from different causes, including blood loss, shock, open head injuries and multiple fractures, it dded.

However TASS news agency cited Russian and Egyptian experts as saying that they failed to find any blast-related trauma during their preliminary examination of the bodies of the victims.

“There were no signs of an explosion impact found during the preliminary examination,” the source said.

One of the Egyptian experts also told TASS that “there were no signs of external impact” found on the bodies.

There have been no official announcements made so far on the results of forensic medical examination of the crash victims.

An unnamed US official said on Tuesday that before the Russian passenger airliner crashed in Sinai, an American infrared satellite had detected a heat flash in the same vicinity, indicating that an explosion may have occurred onboard.

“The flash, which was observed by the satellite, that’s a piece of evidence, but against it’s inconclusive. It can also occur if there was a missile attack, a fire onboard or an explosion onboard,” retired flight commander, Sultan Mahmoud Hali, told RT.

Dr. Anil Padhra, a senior lecturer in aviation studies at London’s Kingston University, told RT that examining the passengers’ injuries might not be the most precise way to learn about the reason for the crash.

“It’s too early to say categorically whether or not the plane broke up in the air. It’s difficult to tell what the injuries would have been if there was an explosion onboard. And I think it’s difficult to tell how it would be different to injuries sustained when the bodies impacted the ground,” Padhra said.

The explosion of the engine could have caused the Russian plane crash as it went down right after finishing the climbing stage, when “the engines are under the most stress.”

Dr. Padhra also mentioned another theory, which has been discussed as widely as others, saying that a midair collision could have interrupted the Airbus A321’s flight.

There is a “possibility that the aircraft could have collided with some other object – I’m thinking, in particular, unmanned aerial vehicles or drones may have been operated in that area to gather intelligence by different authorities… We know it was a conflict area. We know that drones can achieve that kind of altitude,” he said.

All 224 people aboard were killed, making it the deadliest civilian aircraft disaster in Russian and Soviet history.

Since the crash on October 31, several possible causes of the Sinai tragedy were discussed by experts.

Islamic State

Islamic State (formerly ISIS/ISIL) attempted to claim responsibility for the incident, saying that it brought the plane down as retaliation for Russian air operation against the terrorists in Syria.

However, many experts rejected the claim, saying that the jihadists only possessed man portable air defense systems with no capability to reach the high-flying Airbus.

Bomb on board

An explosion of a bomb aboard the plane was mentioned as another possible cause of the crash.

US global intelligence company Stratfor said that Egyptian security personnel often take bribes for allowing passengers to avoid checks, with cargo security screenings in the country also not being strict enough.

Mechanical damage

There was also speculation that corrosion of parts of the plane could have caused the crash, backed by claims that the Russian airliner broke up in the air.

However, Egypt’s civil aviation ministry said on Tuesday there are no facts to substantiate assertions that the plane really fell apart in the sky.

The journalist also found out that the Airbus A321 struck its tail on a runaway during an unsuccessful landing in 2001. It was later repaired, but some experts believe the lasting damage could have causing the crash in Egypt.

Russian first class pilot Andrei Litvinov shared his belief with Kommersant newspaper that the Sinai tragedy happened due to "old metal parts, an old aircraft that was already damaged.”

Human error was also mentioned among the early explanations for the incident, but this was quickly rejected.

Ex-flight commander Hali stressed that “it’ll probably not be possible to make any serious comment on the cause of the accident until the black box has been examined.”

“It normally takes four to five weeks to examine the contents of the black boxes because it’s a technical process,” he added.

Fatigue Crack Might Be Cause of Deadly A321 Crash in Egypt

Structural damage caused by a fatigue crack is a possible reason for the Airbus A321 crash over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, aviation experts told Sputnik on Tuesday, adding that flight and cockpit voice recorders will provide more precise data.

Analysis Shows Mid-Air Explosion Possible Cause of A321 Crash in Egypt

According to an Egyptian forensic expert, an analysis of injuries sustained by victims of the Russian airliner crash on Saturday in Egypt shows that a mid-air explosion might have occured aboard the Airbus A321 passenger jet, RIA Novosti reported.

From western media

Heat flash noted on crashed Sinai jet, no missile fire

CAIRO, Nov. 3 (UPI) -- Satellite imagery suggests the Russian aircraft which crashed Saturday in the Sinai Peninsula sustained a heat flash but was not brought down by a missile, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

An infrared surveillance satellite detected a "flash or explosion" in the same vicinity, a senior U.S. defense official said, adding the satellite saw no heat trail of a surface-to-air missile.

"The plane disintegrated at a very high altitude," the official added. "There was an explosion of some kind. There is no evidence a missile of any kind brought down the plane."

A visible heat flash could indicate a bomb aboard the plane, a malfunctioning and exploding engine or a structural problem leading to a fire, among several possibilities. Metrojet Flight 9268, an Airbus A321-200, carried 217 passenger and seven crew members on its way from the Sinai resort Sharm el-Shiekh to St. Petersburg, Russia, when it crashed. There were no survivors, and although a local Islamic State affiliate took responsibility for the crash, officials of several countries dismissed the claim as impossible, since none of the militias on the Sinai Peninsula have the weapons to down the plane from its altitude.

The plane, built in 1997, required repair in 2001 when its tail struck a Cairo landing strip. Officials have confirmed its safety inspections were in order.