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Predictions come and go every day
Professor predicts COVID-19
will be ‘mostly gone’ in US by
April
It’s the country that was ravaged by COVID-19 with deaths peaking in January. But now a huge turnaround is predicted thanks to one key factor.
The US has been ravaged by the virus. Picture: Bryan R. Smith/AFPSource:AFP
21 February, 2021
A health professor in the US has made the stunning prediction that the coronavirus be “mostly gone” by April.
Professor Marty Makary from the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health said that a combination of people developing a natural immunity due to prior infection and vaccinations will see COVID-19 cases in the US plummet.
“At the current trajectory, I expect COVID will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life,” Prof Makary wrote in an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal.
In recent weeks the US has seen a steep decline in daily cases, from a high of 300,619 on January 8 to 78,018 on January 19.
The country is still seeing an average of more than 2000 deaths per day, but this has dropped from more than 3000 per day in January.
In total, there have been 509,641 deaths from COVID-19 and 28,670,843 confirmed cases in the US.
Prof Makary said that natural immunity to the disease is far higher than can be tested for.
“Testing has been capturing only from 10 per cent to 25 per cent of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus,” he wrote.
“Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55 per cent of Americans have natural immunity.”
He stated that antibody studies underestimate natural immunity.
“Antibody testing doesn’t capture antigen-specific T-cells, which develop ‘memory’ once they are activated by the virus,” he said.
“Survivors of the 1918 Spanish flu were found in 2008 — 90 years later — to have memory cells still able to produce neutralising antibodies.”
A COVID-19 alternative care site, built into a Nevada parking garage. Picture: Patrick T. Fallon/AFPSource:AFP
January was the most deadly month of the pandemic in the US with cases, hospitalisations and deaths all peaking.
In the past two weeks, the average case count has fallen by 43 per cent, hospitalisations by 50 per cent and death rates by 30 per cent.
Earlier this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention attributed the drop in cases to the decrease in travel and large gatherings.
“If I were ranking explanations for the decline in COVID-19, behaviour would be number one,” Ali Mokdad, a global-health professor at the University of Washington, told The Atlantic.
“If you look at mobility data the week after Thanksgiving and Christmas, activity went down.”
Empty check-in counters at the Tom Bradley International Terminal on February 2. Picture: Patrick T. Fallon/AFPSource:AFP
Last week, 1.49 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine were administered on average per day in the US, and 15 per cent of the population already had one dose.
At this rate, it will take an estimated nine months to cover 75 per cent of the population with a two-dose vaccine.
Prof Makary also suggested that people who’ve already had COVID-19 should forgo vaccines until vulnerable seniors get their dose.
“Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had COVID-19 until more vaccines are available,” he wrote.
“Half my friends in the medical community told me – good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1 per cent of people — and when they do occur, the cases are mild.”
Queensland vaccinations
There will be six vaccine hubs in Queensland to deliver the first Pfizer jabs to priority groups - with Gold Coast University Hospital taking the lead from February 22.
Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says the vaccine will then be rolled out to the other hubs: Cairns Hospital, Townsville Hospital, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, Princess Alexandra Hospital and Sunshine Coast University Hospital.
Nationally there are 240-plus facilities where aged care residents will get the first jabs, including Queensland sites in: Albany Creek, Aspley, Bald Hills, Beaconsfield, Birtinya, Bray Park, Buderim, Bundaberg, Burleigh Heads, Burleigh Waters, Carseldine, Cleveland, Glenella, Glenvale, Harristown, Hope Island, Kearneys Spring, Kepnock, Lawnton, Mackay, Meridan Plains, Millbank, Mirani, Mudgeeraba, North Bundaberg, North Mackay, North Tamborine, Palmwoods, Pimpama, Redland Bay, Robina, Sippy Downs, South Toowoomba, Thornlands, Toowoomba, Upper Coomera, Varsity Lakes, Victoria Point, Warana, West Mackay and Woombye.
New South Wales vaccinations
Eleven vaccination hubs have been identified to handle the rollout, with Sydney’s RPA, Westmead and Liverpool hospitals to administer the first jabs.
The state says all hotel quarantine workers will get a Pfizer jab over the initial three weeks of vaccinations.
In all, more than 35,000 critical hotel quarantine and healthcare workers will be covered in that time.
Other hubs identified as the program continues are are Hornsby, St George, Nepean, Newcastle, Wollongong, Coffs Harbour, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga hospitals.
Nationally there are 240-plus facilities where aged care residents will get the first jabs, including NSW sites in: Alstonville, Austral, Ballina, Bangor, Barden Ridge, Blacktown, Collaroy, Collaroy Plateau, Corrimal, Cronulla, Dean Park, Emu Plains, Engadine, Glenfield, Gosford West, Heathcote, Illawong, Jamisontown, Marayong, Minto, Mortdale, Mount Austin, Narrabeen, Orange, Peakhurst, Penrith, Penshurst, Point Clare, Port Macquarie, Prestons, Roselands, Springwood, Stanwell Park, Tarrawanna, Terrey Hills, Thirroul, Umina Beach, Wagga Wagga, Warriewood, Woonona and Woy Woy.
Victorian vaccinations
Nine vaccination hubs have been announced for the initial rollout, taking in metropolitan and regional areas covered by:
- Western Health
- Austin Health
- Monash Health
- Barwon Health
- Goulburn Valley Health
- Latrobe Health
- Bendigo Health
- Ballarat Health
- Albury-Wodonga Health.
Health Minister Martin Foley says all frontline workers will be offered vaccination under the Federal Government’s phase 1a rollout plan, but it will not be a condition of employment.
Nationally there are 240-plus facilities where aged care residents will get the first jabs, including Victorian sites in: Altona Meadows, Ballarat, Ballarat East, Bayswater, Bendigo, Blackburn, California Gully, Canadian, Cowes, Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Creswick, Dandenong, Dandenong North, Delacombe, Drouin, Drysdale, East Bendigo, Forest Hill, Heathmont, Hoppers Crossing, Ironbark, Junction Village, Lara, Long Gully, Moe, Morwell, Mount Clear, Neerim South, Newborough, Nunawading, Ocean Grove, Point Cook, Point Lonsdale, Portarlington, Ringwood, Vermont, Vermont South, Wallington, Wantirna, Wantirna South, Warragul, Wendouree and Werribee.
South Australian vaccinations
Nine vaccination hubs have been announced for the initial rollout.
Major metropolitan hubs:
- Royal Adelaide Hospital
- Flinders Medical Centre
- Lyell McEwin Hospital
- Women’s and Children’s Hospital
Regional hubs:
- Riverland General Hospital in Berri
- Mount Gambier Hospital
- Whyalla Hospital
- Pt Pirie Hospital
- Pt Augusta Hospital.
Nationally there are 240-plus facilities where aged care residents will get the first jabs, including SA sites in: Aldgate, Cowandilla, Encounter Bay, Everard Park, Goolwa, Hahndorf, Heathfield, Lockleys, Marion, Marleston, Morphettville, Mount Barker, North Plympton, Oaklands Park, Port Elliot, Uraidla and Victor Harbor.
Northern Territory vaccinations
An initial vaccine hub at Royal Darwin Hospital will be followed in coming weeks by a second at Alice Springs Hospital.
Chief Minister Michael Gunner has said the Territory will receive 4000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine in the first four weeks of the rollout.
Staff at the international wing of the Howard Springs quarantine facility will be some of the “very earliest” to receive the jab, Chief Health Officer Hugh Heggie has said.
Nationally there are 240-plus facilities where aged care residents will get the first jabs, including NT sites in: Alice Springs, Braitling, Coconut Grove, Fannie Bay, Farrar, Nightcliff and Tiwi.
Tasmanian vaccinations
Tasmania will receive 2340 Pfizer doses a week for the first three weeks of rollout, doubling to 4680 doses a week from the fourth week, Premier Peter Gutwein has said.
The increased doses will allow for people getting their second jab.
The first doses will be delivered at the Royal Hobart Hospital and through an Australian Government program in residential aged care facilities.
During March, the program will move to the Launceston General Hospital and then the North West Regional Hospital in Burnie.
Nationally there are 240-plus facilities where aged care residents will get the first jabs, including Tasmanian sites in: Burnie, Legana, Newnham, Newstead, Norwood, Penguin, Riverside, Somerset, St Leonards, Ulverstone, West Ulverstone and Wynyard.
Western Australian vaccinations
Premier Mark McGowan has said about 10,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine are set to arrive on February 22, with quarantine and border workers first in line for the jab.
Perth Children’s Hospital will operate as the first vaccination hub, followed by Albany Health Campus, Hedland Health Campus, Kalgoorlie Health Campus, Geraldton Health Campus and Broome Health Campus.
Health Minister Roger Cook said: “It is anticipated that medical teams from the PCH vaccination hub will vaccinate high risk staff at quarantine hotels and the international airport with the first available vaccines.”
Nationally there are 240-plus facilities where aged care residents will get the first jabs, including WA sites in: Balcatta, Bunbury, Calista, Carey Park, Cooloongup, Donnybrook, Eaton, Emu Point, Kingsley, Lockyer, Madeley, Marangaroo, Mirrabooka, Port Kennedy, Rockingham, Shoalwater, South Bunbury, Spencer Park, Waikiki and Yakamia.
ACT vaccinations
Canberra Hospital's COVID-19 Surge Centre at Garran Oval will carry out the first vaccinations in the ACT.
People in priority groups will be contacted by email and asked to book in to get their jabs.
Frontline healthcare workers, who will be among the first in line, have been told vaccination is not mandatory for continued employment.
Nationally there are 240-plus facilities where aged care residents will get the first jabs, including ACT sites in: Curtin, Farrer, Garran, Griffith, Hughes, Narrabundah, Red Hill, Stirling and Weston.
What a Willie! Covid nonsense from New Zealand
Labour party MP Willie Jackson says the decision made for Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson to pull out of his weekly Magic Talk slot was not made lightly while accusing host Peter Williams of "spouting climate denial nonsense and "anti-vax quackery".
Robertson backed out from his radio slot with Williams this week after he was asked about 'The Great Reset' - an initiative adopted by conspiracy theorists.
The Great Reset is a project launched by the World Economic Forum (WEF) aimed to rebuild the economic state in the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic.
But the initiative has since set off conspiracy theories, claiming it's been fuelled by coincidences such as President Joe Biden's campaign slogan 'Build Back Better'...
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