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61%
of Dutch voters say no to ratifying EU-Ukraine deal – preliminary
results
Dutch
Prime Minister Mark Rutte casts his vote for the consultative
referendum on the association between Ukraine and the European Union,
in the Hague, the Netherlands, April 6, 2016 © Michael Kooren /
Reuters
RT,
6 April, 2016
The
majority of Dutch people who went to the polls in the Netherlands on
Wednesday to express their opinion on the proposed association
agreement between the EU and Kiev have rejected it, preliminary
results and exit polls have shown.
If
the turnout surpasses the 30 percent threshold, making the “no”
vote valid, the government will reconsider ratifying the treaty,
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has said.
"It's
clear that 'No' have won by an overwhelming margin, the question is
only if turnout is sufficient," Rutte
stated. "If
the turnout is above 30 percent with such a large margin of victory
for the 'No' camp then my sense is that ratification can't simply go head."
Ukraine’s
foreign ministry announced that it is examining the results of the
referendum, but pointed out that it was a non-binding expression of
public opinion and that it will wait for the Netherlands’ final
decision on ratification of the EU-Ukraine deal.
“We
are counting on the decision to be in the interests of Ukraine, the
Netherlands and Europe,” Ukrainian
Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mariana Betsa stated.
Meanwhile,
the Ukrainian opposition said that the results of the referendum
represent disappointment with the Ukrainian government.
“This
is like a cold shower for the Ukrainian politicians who believe that
loud shouting and wild hopping is more important than efficient
work,” Aleksander
Vilkul, a leader of the Opposition Bloc Party, said. “This
is an assessment to those who think that no one will notice excessive
corruption.”
Although
Rutte promised that a valid “no” vote would not go ignored, he
said that the government would take its time in deciding exactly how
to respond to the public’s opinion.
In
order for the referendum to be considered valid, at least 30 percent
of the population eligible to vote must cast their ballots. The
validity of Wednesday’s non-binding referendum is still unclear.
With over 99.8 percent of the votes counted, Ipsos exit poll said
that the turnout was at 32.2 percent.
The
margin of error for turnout is three percent, and that for the final
results is five percent, TASS reported.
The
Dutch voters’ decision on whether to approve the association
agreement, which strengthens ties with Kiev, will be officially
announced on April 12, RIA Novosti reported.
“The
most important lesson that can be learnt from this referendum is that
the European Union has lost its appeal to the common people. [It has
shown that] it is not possible to mobilize [people] for a referendum,
for a democratic event that has been organized by the EU and is
closely connected to the EU. This shows that there is a democratic
deficit in Europe, in the Netherlands,”
assistant professor of European studies at Amsterdam University
Laszlo Maracz told RT, adding that “it
will have repercussions and probably an impact on the Brexit vote in
June in Great Britain, and consequences for future projects of the
European Union.”
The
referendum was triggered by a petition launched by a group of
activists last year that collected more than 450,000 signatures, much
higher the 300,000 required by Dutch law to force the government to
put issues to a public vote.
Although
the referendum is non-binding, it will be considered as an official
advisory to the government from the Dutch people should the turnout
reach above the 30 percent mark, meaning that at least 3.7 million
voters will have officially expressed their opinion.
The proposed EU-Ukraine treaty aims to strengthen not only economic and political ties. It also includes a number of defense and security agreements. For the pact to have full legal force, it must be ratified by all 28 European Union member states. The Netherlands has yet to do so.
Dutch Referendum May Have Unleashed European "Continental Crisis"
6
April, 2016
In
early January, European Commission President Jean-Claude
Juncker warned
that a Dutch advisory referendum,
which took place today, on the bloc's association agreement with
Ukraine could lead to a "continental
crisis"
if voters reject the treaty.
In
an interview in January for Dutch daily NRC Handelsblad, Juncker said
Russia would "pluck the fruits" of a vote in the
Netherlands against deepened ties between the European Union and
Ukraine. "I want the Dutch to understand that the importance of
this question goes beyond the Netherlands," NRC quoted Juncker
as saying."I
don't believe the Dutch will say no, because it would open the door
to a big continental crisis."
The
reason why Jean-Claude "when
it gets serious, you have to lie" Juncker
was so nervous, is that the vote, launched by anti-EU forces, is seen
as test of the strength of Eurosceptics on the continent just three
months before Britain votes on whether to stay in the European Union.
Fast
forward to today when the vote just took place, and based on initial
exit polls, Juncker was dead wrong. According
to Reuters,
in a rebuke for the government, which campaigned in favor of the
EU-Ukraine association agreement, roughly
64 percent voted "No" and 36 percent said "Yes".
As
a reminder, the political, trade and defense treaty is already
provisionally in place but has to be ratified by all 28 European
Union member states for every part of it to have full legal
force. The
Netherlands is the only country that has not done so.
And,
it appears, that in a big hit for those who had plotted the Ukraine
ascension, the Dutch may have just frozen Ukraine dead in its tracks.
Eurosceptics
had presented the referendum as a rare opportunity for their
countrymen to cast a vote against the EU and the way it is run -
including its open immigration policies.
But
here lies the rub. Although it is non-binding, it
will be considered as an advisory referendum by the government if
turnout reaches 30 percent. Otherwise
it will be considered null and void and need not be taken into
consideration by the government.
And
while according to some initial exit polls, the turnout was just 28%,
or below the required threshold, the
most recent data has the turnout as 32%, or sufficient.
Still,
this number may change before the night is over, so keep a close eye
on this otherwise insignificant vote in the Netherlands as it may
have momentuous consequences for the country and the entire European
project. According to a prominent Dutch pollster, the final turnout
will be 31%, or an absolute nailbiter.
Pieter Cleppe
Prominent pollster @mauricedehond thinks final turnout figure will be 31% https://twitter.com/mauricedehond/status/717815176544841728 …
The
turnout, far lower than in national or local elections, reflected
many voters' puzzlement at being asked to vote on such an abstruse
topic. "Yes" voters were certainly confused: "I think
the people who asked for this referendum have made a huge commotion,"
said Trudy, a "Yes" voter in central Amsterdam. "It's
nonsense, which cost lots of money, and it's about something nobody
understands."
Which,
of course, is what anyone who is in the vast minority will say.
Meanwhile,
Geert Wilders, leader of the eurosceptic Freedom Party, urged voters
to send a message to Europe by saying "No". "I
think many Dutchmen are fed up with more European Union and this
treaty with Ukraine that is not in the interests of the Dutch
people," he
told reporters. "I hope that later, both in the United Kingdom
and elsewhere in Europe, other countries will follow."
As
Reuters adds, a clear vote against the treaty in the run-up to
Britain's June 23 referendum on whether to quit the EU could
escalate into a domestic or even a Europe-wide political crisis.
Dutch
leaders say voting against the treaty would also hand a symbolic
victory to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
It
is unclear if anti-Russian sentiment swayed voters nearly two years
on but increasing resentment among the Dutch at the consequences of
the EU's open-border policies has propelled Wilders - who openly
opposes Muslim immigration - to the top of public opinion polls.
In
many ways, Wilders is the local Donald Trump.
Reuters
also notes that the ballot also taps into a more deep-seated
anti-establishment sentiment highlighted by a resounding rejection in
2005 of a European Union constitution, also in a referendum.
However,
just like in Greece, the gears are already set in motion to ignore
the majority vote. In parliament, Prime
Minister Mark Rutte's conservative VVD party has said it would ignore
a narrow "No" vote, while junior coalition partner Labour
has said it would honor it, setting the stage for a split.
But
ignoring a clear "No" would be risky for Rutte's already
unpopular government -- which has lost further ground over Europe's
refugee debate - ahead of national elections scheduled for no later
than March 2017.
While
we are confident that ultimately the will of the "No"
voters will be ignored, just as it was in Greece, the resentment
toward an oligarchic class which clearly can only operate under a
non-democratic, call it despotic, regime is sure to spread. As for
the Netherlands, while nothing may happen for the next 12 months, it
will take some very brazen vote tampering next year to perpetuate a
status quo which no longer serves the majority of its own country.
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