to a popular Turkish blogger this should help him in his election
campaign and save him from possible defeat and the end of his
Turkey's President Erdogan is
planning to shoot down Russian planes in Syria, to put relations
between Russia and Turkey to the brink of war. This should help him
in his election campaign and save him from possible defeat and the
end of his political career. A Turkish blogger, known under the
name Fuat Avni came out with this troubling warning. He has been
active for several years, and his denunciations of government's
plans often turn out to be true.
Our sources in Turkey
believe that Erdogan out of a well-founded fear of defeat is ready
to plunge his country into a state of war hysteria, shooting down
Russian planes in the skies of Syria under the pretext that they
violated the Turkish airspace.
Erdogan has pushed himself
into a corner with his position on Syria. His planes, under the
pretext of fighting ISIS are bombing Kurdish villages, causing
active resistance of both the Syrian and Turkish Kurds.
Turkish people are dissatisfied with Erdogan's policy on Syria. The
presence of masses of armed militants and large costs of supporting
refugees had undermined the fragile welfare of the Turks. Many
support Russian presence in Syria and ending the nightmare with the
militants. They hope that Russia, having received this storm
warning, will be able to avoid being drawn into conflict with
Turkey, and at the same time will continue the good work on the
restoration of the territorial integrity and constitutional order
in Syria," - said the source.
How should we react to
this warning? Our sources and Fuat Avni are in opposition to
Erdogan. Erdogan is in a really difficult position. He is being
pressured by the Americans, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who watch with
horror how created and funded by them armed militias are pushed
back from Aleppo under the onslaught of the Syrian army.
Pavel SHLYKOV, associate professor at the Department
of History of Near and Middle East, Institute of Asian and African
"We have too multifaceted cooperation to
severe it all"
- Pavel Vyacheslavovich, how real is
- The tensions are rising before the
elections, but the target of these statements is domestic audience.
And certainly not the Russian business and the elite. At stake is
not only the "Turkish stream", the tourist industry, but
other powerful projects - including Turkish projects in Russia. We
have too multifaceted cooperation in order to severe it all with
some gamble. Foreign policy of Turkey is defined by business
interests and Erdogan participated in the creation of this model of
- But Turkey is still a NATO member. So
in the case of a hypothetical conflict other NATO members will be
forced to join?
- One thing is rhetoric, another -
military conflict. NATO is not eager to go to war with Russia. And
it doesn't support the military adventures of Ankara - enough to
recall the Turkish invasion of Northern Cyprus in 1974.
As time and experience has shown, Russian experts often falsely
assume that good business relationship with Russia is the main
motivation of other global players