Posts
Syria:
Turkish MANPADs, Iranian Regulars, US Bombing the Crossings –
Everybody Is Upping the Ante
So
many new important Syrian developments in such a short time – and
it's all pointing to an escalation
7
April, 2016
Syrian
army fights ISIS, rebels fight Syrian army
After
Syrian army backed by Russians liberated Palmyra from ISIS in late
March, most of the forces involved in that operation moved some 70
kilometres westwards where they over the next few days liberated
al Qaryatayn.
The latter is a Christian-majority town of originally some 15,000
people that was captured by ISIS in August 2015, 3 months after their
capture of Palmyra to the east.
While
crack Syrian units were busy clearing Homs province from ISIS the
rebels struck in Aleppo. They managed to overrun several Syrian army
positions and captured the village of al Eis.
The rebel attack was spearheaded by Al Nusra but also involved 'moderate' rebel groupswhich had earlier committed to the ceasefire regime.
At least 25 pro-government and 16 opposition fighters died in the clashes south of Aleppo, where the Nusra Front and rebel militias captured a village overlooking a major highway, a Britain-based monitoring group told The Associated Press.
A number of groups — including some nominally party to the truce agreement — acknowledged on social media that they were battling government forces.
This
naturally did not go down well with Damascus which therefore made it
known it considered the ceasefire in southern Aleppo null and void
and prepared
for a campaign to retake lost positions.
So
far there are conflicting
reports whether
pro-government forces have by now retaken al Eis, but there is little
doubt that if they have not yet they soon will.
Iran
ups the ante
What
is particularly interesting about the Syrian army campaign in
southern Aleppo is that it for the first time involved
advisors from the regular Iranian army.
Previously the only Iranians in Syria were members of the
Revolutionary Guard and volunteer militiamen.
US
and Damascus claim credit for the same air strike on Al Qaeda
Monday
Pentagon revealed that
US air force had bombed Al Nusra militants and killed its
spokesperson Abu Firas al-Suri who was an old associate of Osama
bin Laden.
Regardless
of who it was that carried out the raid this really goes to show that
Syrian government and the US are really natural allies.
US' real
security interests align
far more closely with those of Bashar al Assad than those of
Erdogan's Turkey, Wahhabi Saudi Arabia or Syrian jihadi rebels.
Were
it not for the crooked influence of neocon ideologues a US led by a
patriotic, nationalist or a realist foreign policy establishment
would have surely never sought to undermine the secular Syrian
government.
A
change in US policy?
Aside
from openly hitting Al Nusra for the first time the US has widened
the scope of its bombing in one other way.
It
has for the first time delivered numerous, sustained
air strikes against ISIS in Jarabulus reportedly
killing up to 60 of its fighers in what is the last remaining
major Turkish-Syrian border crossing in ISIS hands.
Moreover,
ISIS control of Jarabulus is directly threatened by the Kurdish YPG
which sits just outside the city on the other side of the Euphrates
river.
Of
course, the Turks have previously warned they would intervene against
the YPG if it ever crossed the Euphrates, and the US has so far been
sending strong signals to the Kurds that Jarabulus was off limits.
Were
the strikes some sort of a signal to Turkey that US can unleash the
Kurds?
Or
is it the case that US is actually getting ready to support a Kurdish
offensive against Jarabulus and the rest of the Manbij pocket which
would cut off ISIS from Turkey (allegedly
its main supplier of weapons)?
The
US has allegedly previously participated in the Tishrin
Dam offensive which
established a Kurdish bridgehead on the right bank Euphrates, which
was technically beyond the Turkish "red line".
Certainly the
well-informed Al Masdar believes the
current US strikes were in support of Kurds.
The
remaining Syrian-Turkish border in ISIS hands. Jarabulus area marked
with red square
Wednesday
rebels shot down the
second Syrian combat jet this month.
In both cases the the planes were downed by al Nusra using shoulder
fired anti-air missiles.
Such
weapons were before not regularly observed in rebel possession.
This raises
the question who
supplied these missiles to rebels now. It's possible it was Qatar or
Saudi Arabia, but best
candidate is
Turkey. Whether this would have been coordinated with the US or not
is anyone's guess.
Another
interesting question is did the introduction of MANPADs to Syria's
battlefield played a role in the Russian withdrawal?
When
Russian downgraded their fixed wing presence in Syria in March they
left behind the great majority of Su-24 and Su-24 interdiction
bombers, but flew back their entire fleet of Su-25 close ground
support aircraft. Generally a Su-25 would engage the enemy from a
lower attitude and be far more vulnerable to a shoulder-fired
rockets.
Conclusion:
Events are gaining critical mass
Just
weeks after the partially successful ceasefire agreement and the
partial withdrawal of the Russian air legion the war looks on the
brink of a major escalation
Unreported
by western media, yet when there were allegations of Bashar Assad
doing it they were all over it.
Syrian
Islamist group Jaysh al-Islam admits using banned weapons against
Kurds in Aleppo
RT,
7
April, 2016
The
Jaysh al-Islam militant group fighting government forces in Syria has
admitted to using “forbidden” weapons against Kurdish militia in
Aleppo. The group’s statement comes after reports of chemical gas
being used in shelling Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsood district.
The
hardline Islamist group did not not specify what substances were
used, but claimed that it will punish those responsible.
The
group’s statement reads: “During
the clashes one of the Jaysh al-Islam brigade leaders used [weapons]
forbidden in this kind of confrontations.”
The
group claims that the brigade commander in question was summoned to a
military court, where it was decided he is to be held accountable.
“This
situation is contrary to the charter of Jaysh al-Islam,” says
the group.
Aleppo’s
Sheikh Maqsood neighborhood was shelled with mortars containing
chemical agents earlier on Thursday. Local journalist Nawrouz Uthman
told RT the attack took place around noon local time, reportedly
killing 23 people and injured over 100.
The
Kurdish Red Crescent confirmed reports that chemicals had been used
in the attack. “The
symptoms of those affected by the attack such as choking made it
possible to affirm that they were poisoned as a result of the use of
banned toxic gases such as chlorine or other agents. All our patients
have similar symptoms,” Doctor
Wallat Mamu told RT.
YPG
also confirmed that toxic agents had been used by the Islamists,
according to RIA Novosti.
“We
confirm the information concerning usage by Islamists, acting under
patronage of Turkey, of the poisonous agent in the Maqsood
neighborhood of Aleppo. Its poisonous effect have experienced dozens
of civilians,” the
head of the YPG central headquarters was cited as saying.
YPG
intends to report the incident to the Jordan-based US coordination
center and the Russian Center for reconciliation of the opposing
sides in Syria, which oversee the cessation of hostilities.
“We
will report this fact to the ceasefire centers, to the Russian center
in Latakia and to the American one in Jordan,” YPG
said in a statement.
The
hardline Islamist group Jaysh al-Islam is formally a member of the
High Negotiations Committee (HNC) that is representing the Syrian
opposition at the Geneva talks.
Both
Russia and Syria have repeatedly demanded the exclusion of Mohammed
Alloush, previously known as Jaysh al-Islam’s political leader,
from the negotiations process.
Alloush
was picked as the chief negotiator for the Syrian opposition in
Geneva, which has drawn ire from Damascus and criticism from Moscow.
Russian
foreign minister Sergey Lavrov told a press conference in January
that Russia would not change its view of the “terrorist
essence of Jaysh al-Islam,” which
is “known
to have shelled residential districts in Damascus, including the
Russian Embassy.”
In
March, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov reiterated
Russia’s stance that Jaysh al-Islam is a terrorist organization.
“From
the very beginning, Russia opposed inclusion of the representatives
[of Jaysh al-Islam] in the opposition delegation… They take part in
the delegation only in a purely personal capacity… We will only
welcome their exclusion from participation in the negotiations,” he
told RIA Novosti.
44 civilians killed, 74 injured in Aleppo attacks in 2 weeks – Russian MOD
Meanwhile,
the Russian Defense Ministry has reported observing a rise in
terrorist attacks in the Aleppo area over the past two weeks, which
it said had killed and injured dozens of people.
“In
[the] past two weeks, the number and the scale of terrorist
provocations in Aleppo have grown significantly – 44 civilians have
been killed and 74, including children, have been wounded as a result
of these attacks,” said
the ministry’s spokesman, Igor Konashenkov.
Official
YPG spokesman Redur Xelil told RT that Turkey has contributed greatly
to the disruption of the ceasefire in Aleppo by backing militant
groups fighting against the Kurds in Syria.
“Here
in Sheikh Maqsood, and in Aleppo, there is no cessation of
hostilities. The ceasefire has not brought any peace for the YPG and
the Kurdish people. In fact it’s the opposite – the attacks on us
have intensified. We are absolutely sure that it’s the Turkish
government and the rebel groups they support that are responsible for
these assaults,” said Xlil.
The
ceasefire in Syria came into effect on February 27. The cessation of
hostilities agreement, drawn up with the active involvement of US and
Russian diplomats, includes some 97 militant opposition groups
operating in Syria. Terrorist organizations, such as Islamic State
(IS, ISIS/ISIL) and Al Nusra Front, were excluded from the deal.
Numerous
violations of the ceasefire have been reported since its
implementation. Last month, Sergey Kuralenko, head of the Russian
Center for reconciliation of the opposing sides in Syria, confirmed
250 cases of the ceasefire being breached.
From the BBC. They say 'rebel group' but do not name them
Syria
war: Rebels 'capture key northern town of al-Rai'
Syrian
rebels say they have seized control of the strategically important
northern town of al-Rai from the group known as Islamic State (IS).
The
fall of the town is a boost for the rebels as they battle to capture
the divided city of Aleppo.
Al-Rai's
capture after several days of heavy fighting secures an important
supply line from Turkey for the rebels.
Separately,
at least 200 people are missing after an IS attack on a factory near
Damascus, the government says.
Workers
were reportedly taken from a dormitory where they were staying on the
outskirts of the town of Dumeir, about 40km (25 miles) east of the
capital.
Aleppo
remains divided between opposition and loyalist-controlled sectors,
with some parts of the city changing hands on a daily basis
Activists
from the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights say about 140
workers managed to escape.
Initially
there was confusion over who attacked the factory, with some sources
suggesting the abductions were carried out by a rebel group called
Jaysh Tahrir al-Sham.
A
factory administrator said no-one had been able to contact the
workers since the assault on Monday.
The
area around Dumeir has seen fierce fighting between government forces
and IS militants in recent days.
'Launching
pad'
The
BBC's Lina Sinjab in Lebanon says that al-Rai is a crucial stronghold
for IS as it sits on a crossing linking Turkey to Syria.
The
Observatory said that an alliance of "rebel factions and
Islamists" had captured the town.
Control
of al-Rai allows opposition fighters to lay siege to positions held
by IS to the north of Aleppo and cut the group's supply lines, a
commander of the opposition al-Mutasim Brigade was quoted as telling
local media.
Al-Rai
can now be be used by opposition groups as a launching pad for future
operations against IS in the east and south, the commander, Mohamed
Hassan Khalil, dded.
He
said that the main dangers faced by the opposition groups fighting IS
were improvised mines, booby-trapped vehicles and suicide bombers.
Earlier
this week IS jihadists said they had launched several attacks around
north-east Damascus, including Tishrin power station and Dumeir
military airport.
A
Syrian military source told Reuters there had been attacks but all of
the militants who took part in them had been killed.
It
comes almost two weeks after Syrian government and allied forces
recaptured the ancient city of Palmyra from IS fighters.
This
was also seen as a significant loss to the militant group, which had
held the city since last May.
From al-Masdar
ISIS
has no where to run as rebels recapture Adwan & Sahm al-Jawlan –
Map update
7
April, 2016
During
the afternoon, Islamist groups of Jabhat al-Nusra, Islamic Front,
Ahrar ash-Sham and the Free Syrian Army recaptured the towns of Adwan
and Sahm al-Jawlan in western Daraa.
This
entire area – along with many neighbouring villages – was
captured last month by two ISIS affiliate groups, namely the Yarmouk
Martyrs Brigade and Islamic Muthanna Movement.
Today’s
rebel advance comes on top of capturing 5 other villages from ISIS
east of the captured towns captured today. However, the entire
ISIS-held area in western Daraa was rebel-held just two years ago;
reason being that the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade and the Islamic
Muthanna Movement defected from rebel ranks to ISIS when the latter
was gaining momentum elsewhere in Syria in 2014.
Now,
Islamist rebel forces will likely push to capture Tasil (Taseel)
which is situated geographically west of Adwan and north of Sahm
al-Jawlan.
If
the rebels can seize the strategic town of Tasil, they will have ISIS
cornered inside the province and utterly cut from the Islamic State
mainland in northern and eastern Syria. Subsequently, these events
also have ISIS pushed against a wall at the border with Israel and
Jordan.
As
these countries are unlikely to have ISIS fighters pour across their
borders, militants loyal to the Islamic State must now either sue for
a regional peace deal with the Syrian Opposition groups or fight them
to the death.
MAP: TURKISH-BACKED MILITANTS TAKE CONTROL OF AL-RA’I FROM ISIS IN NORTH ALEPPO, SYRIA
Donate
Turkish-backed
militants have reportedly seized the town of Al-Ra’i in Syria’s
Aleppo province. The town is located at the important supply
line to Turkey.
Recently,
different militant groups increased their activity in North Aleppo.
The maing goal of these actions is to show that they fight ISIS which
may strengthen Turkey’s diplomatic position amid the upcoming talks
on Syria. The talks will likely start on April 11 or 13.
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