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Major Wildfire Outbreak in Central and Western Africa as Drought, Hunger Grow More Widespread
11
February, 2016
The
major news organizations haven’t picked it up yet, but there’s a
massive wildfire outbreak now ongoing over Central and Western
Africa. These wildfires are plainly visible in the NASA/MODIS
satellite shot — covering about a 1,400 mile swath stretching from
the Ivory Coast, through Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon and on across
the Central African Republic, the Congo, and Gabon.
(Very
large wildfire outbreak in Central Africa in the February 10
LANCE-MODIS satellite shot. For reference, bottom edge of frame
covers about 350 miles. Image source: LANCE
MODIS.)
Smoke
from these fires is extremely widespread — stretching over almost
all of Western and Central Africa, blanketing parts of Southern
Africa and ghosting on out over the Southern Atlantic Ocean. Together
with these massive fires we have what appears to be a rather
significant CO2 plume showing up in the Coperinicus monitoring system
(see below). It’s a signature reminiscent of the amazing Indonesian
wildfires that, during a few weeks of the Fall of 2015, matched the
CO2 emission of Germany. The satellite representation of these fires
is so strong that it’s difficult to believe that no news of the
fires has hit the mainstream media. But, so far, there hasn’t even
been a peep.
The
intensely burning fires now rage across a region of Africa
experiencing both severe heat and drought with temperatures hitting
well over 40 C in Nigeria and over 36 C throughout the broader region
today. An extreme heatwave occurring in tandem with a new kind of
flash drought event that’s becoming more and more common as human
fossil fuel emissions keep forcing the world into higher and higher
temperatures ranges.
(The
Copernicus CO2 monitor shows an intense CO2 plum issuing from very
intense wildfires over Central and Western Africa on Wednesday,
February 10th. Other CO2 hotspots include China, the Northeast US,
Northern South America, Southeast Asia, and a region stretching from
Siberia through to the Arctic. It’s worth noting that Northern
Hemisphere CO2 levels now range from 400 to 414 parts per million.
Image source: CAMS
CO2 Monitoring.)
Central
Africa is but the most recent region to feel the effects of extreme
drought and related risks to food security. For through 2015 and on
into early 2016, both drought and hunger grew in scope and intensity
across Africa. An impact that is almost certainly related to the
combined influences of a near record El Nino and global average
temperatures that are now in the range of 1.1 degrees Celsius hotter
those seen at the end of the 19th Century.
El
Nino + Global Warming’s Impact on African Drought Risk
As
a human-forced heating of the globe warms the world’s airs and
waters, the rate of evaporation and precipitation intensifies. On the
wet end of the spectrum, the added heat and atmospheric moisture
provides more available energy for storms. But on the dry end,
droughts can appear more rapidly, become more intense and, in many
cases, become longer-lasting. Effects can generate entirely new
weather patterns — as seen in increasing instances of heat and
drought appearing over the US Southwest or the progressively more
stormy conditions showing up over the North Atlantic. Or they can
intensify an already prevailing pattern.
(Large
sections of Africa suffering from severe drought as of February 7th
in the Africa
Flood and Drought Monitor graphic
above. Widespread areas in red show soil moisture levels hitting
their lowest possible rating in the monitor over widespread regions
during recent days.)
In
the case of the latter, it appears that just such an event may be
happening now across Africa. During typical strong El Nino years,
heat and drought were already at risk of intensifying —
particularly for regions of Southern and Eastern Africa. But now,
with global temperatures 1.1 C hotter than those seen during the late
19th Century, the drought risk is amplified. Added average
atmospheric heat sets base conditions in which water evaporates from
the soil more rapidly — so a pattern that would typically result in
drought risk becomes far more intense and dangerous.
Over
the past year, intense drought has impacted widespread regions across
eastern and southern Africa. Sections of South Africa experienced
its lowest levels of rainfall since record-keeping began in 1904 even
as widespread drought from the Horn of Africa and regions south and
westward put millions at risk of a growing hunger crisis.
Hunger
Crisis Spreads, Fear of Famine Grows
According
to The
World Food Program and a
February 10 report from VICE News,
the widespread and growing drought is taking its toll. Skyrocketing
local food prices, mass displacement due to political instability,
and failed crops due to the driest conditions in 35 to 111 years are
all having an impact. Now, more than 20 million people are at risk of
hunger across Africa.
In
Zimbabwe, President Mugabe declared a
state of emergency as more than a quarter of the 13 million
population struggled to access food.
Many families were reported to have gone more than a week without a
meal amidst heightening concerns over potential food riots. In
Somalia, more than 3.7 million people faced acute food insecurity
even as 58,000 children were at risk of dying during 2016 due to lack
of food. Nearly 10 million people in Sudan were reported at risk of
going hungry even as 40,000 were identified as potential immediate
casualties due to the growing crisis. In Ethiopia, massive livestock
losses due to drought are resulting in the worst food crisis since
1984 — a year that saw an estimated 1 million die due to famine.
(A
food emergency — shown in red — emerges in East Africa even as
food crises erupt across Central and Southern Africa. Food emergency
regions indicated in red on this map are just one level below famine.
Image source: Famine
Early Warning System.)
Meanwhile,
according to the Famine
Early Warning System,
Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Yemen, Zambia, Mozambique and Madagascar all
faced potential food crises through March. Risk of hunger is also
compounded by a large number of displaced persons throughout Africa
with East Africa alone hosting over 5.1 million refugees across South
Sudan, Burundi, and Yemen.
Rain
patterns are expected to shift eastward, bringing some relief to
sections of the Horn of Africa even as drought is predicted to expand
into the regions of Central Africa now experiencing intense
wildfires.
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