From the corporation that brought you Deepwater Horizon
BP study predicts greenhouse emissions will rise by almost a third in 20 years
Energy
firm's analysis finds switch to other fuels like shale gas will do
little to cut carbon emissions
15
January, 2014
Global
greenhouse gas emissions are set to rise by nearly a third in the
next two decades, putting hopes of curtailing dangerous climate
change beyond reach, a new report by BP has found.
The
drastic rise in emissions, despite international efforts to cut
carbon, will come despite the predicted enormous growth in the use of
shale gas, according to the oil and gas giant.
Shale
gas – previously inaccessible because the exploitation of these
resources requires technology only recently perfected – will
account for a rising proportion of the growth in energy in the years
to 2035, but its use will not cause a decline in greenhouse gases.
The
finding deals a blow to proponents of shale gas, who have argued that
its use will cut emissions. Burning gas produces much less CO2 than
burning coal, but the effect of a huge rise in shale gas exploration
will not ameliorate the increases in emissions that scientists say
will take the world to dangerous climate change.
Proponents
of the fuel have argued that shale gas can counteract dependence on
coal. But while shale gas use has increased dramatically,
particularly in the US, where it brought down gas prices from $12
(£7) to below $3 (£1.80) at one stage, global emissions have
continued to rise as the coal that would otherwise have been used has
been exported elsewhere.
Christof
Ruehl, BP chief economist, said that fuel switching had little impact
on overall emissions. Coal use globally had risen to record levels,
even as shale gas had risen.
In
the UK, shale gas has received a boost from David Cameron, who vowed
to go all out for shale by offering taxpayer-funded giveaways to
companies. But the news that such a move will not cut overall
emissions takes away a key plank in the arguments put forward by
shale companies.
BP
in its global energy outlook said gas would take a 27% share of
global energy consumption by 2035, with a similar share for coal,
oil, and an amalgamated low-carbon sector including nuclear, hydro,
wind and sun.
BP
predicts that global emissions will rise 29% by 2035. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that emissions must
peak by 2020 to give the world a chance to avoid a further two
degrees of warming, beyond which the effects of climate change become
catastrophic and irreversible.
Tony
Bosworth, Friends of the Earth energy campaigner, said: "The
case for shale gas is crumbling. Experts say it won't lead to cheaper
fuel bills, and now BP says it won't cut carbon emissions either.
"Follow
the PM's logic and we'd be punching thousands of holes in our
countryside only to further add to climate change and continue with
sky-high bills.
"Instead
of going all out for shale, the prime minister should focus on the
real answers to the energy challenges we face: energy efficiency and
renewable power."
Meanwhile,
analysts at the City firm Brewin Dolphin also poured scorn on Cameron
and George Osborne for over-hyping the potential impact of shale in
Britain. "We believe the shale industry is unlikely to produce
commercial volumes of gas until the end of this decade and that it is
unlikely to have a meaningful impact on gas prices," said a
report drawn up by Elaine Coverley, head of equity research, and Iain
Armstrong, oil and gas equity analyst at the investment house.
"This
is due to two reasons; first, commercially available volumes are
likely to be significantly lower in the UK than in the US, and
second, if UK shale is successful, exploration companies could export
the gas to achieve higher prices," they argue.
Their
comments came as a new opinion poll for the Institution of Mechanical
Engineers (IME) found that 47% of people would be unhappy for a gas
well site using fracking to open within 10 miles of their home,
compared with just 14% who said they would be happy.
The
findings come just days after the prime minister announced that
councils that back fracking will get to keep more money from the
business tax revenues once production at a well is under way.
The
biggest concerns for the people polled included fears of damage to
the local environment, the associated noise and disruption, fears
over the chemicals used and health risks, as well as fears that
drinking water might be contaminated.
Tim
Fox, head of energy and environment at the IME, said: "These
poll results suggest that simply offering money to local councils and
communities is not enough to convince the public about the benefits
of fracking for gas and that much more work needs to be done to
engage with citizens on this potential activity.
"Building
trust between government, industry and communities is essential if we
wish to make use of this technique in shale rocks under the UK."
The
Guardian carried out the first UK nationwide poll on shale last
summer and found people split down the middle, 40% in favour of shale
drilling in their area, 40% against, with 20% unsure. The IME poll
suggests attitudes to shale are hardening rather than softening
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.