Posts
"Humanity
has signed its death warrant and our final extinction will be carried
out by Mother Earth within the next 30 to 40 years unless we
immediately take extremely drastic action to entirely curb our carbon
dioxide pollution, eliminate large quantities of methane from the
subsea Arctic Ocean, seawater and atmosphere (down to ca 750 ppm) and
revert completely to renewable energy."
---Malcolm
Light
Well,
I for one don't think that's going to happen, even with
geoengineering (heaven help us!) and with a thousand other chickens
coming home to roost I will go with Guy McPherson and say that our
near-term extinction is almost assured
by
Malcolm P.R. Light
5
January, 2014
The
amount of water presently transported north eastward by the Gulf
Stream varies from 30 million cubic metres per second off Florida to
a maximum of 150 million cubic metres per second south of
Newfoundland at 55° is
transported within this volume of water is approximately equal to the
amount carried north east by the atmosphere which gives North Western
Europe its milder climate (Wales, 2013).
Figure
2 from Csanady (2001) shows the heat gain and loss for the Atlantic
Ocean which was posthumously published from Bunker in (1988) In: the
North Atlantic from Bunker and Worthington (1976).
Csanady
(2001) says that "the contours connect points of equal heat gain
in watts per square meter (Wm-2)(negative if heat is lost). The
zero-gain contour cuts through this ocean along a diagonal roughly
from Spain to the island of Hispaniola in the Caribbean. North of
this contour the ocean loses heat, at spectacularly high rates over
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Here the annual average rate of
loss exceeds 200 watts per square meter (exceeds 250 watts per square
meter off New England/Canada - my insertion). On the other side of
the ocean, off the Norway coast, a northwards tongue of the
Warm-Water-Sphere (Gulf Stream - my insertion) is still responsible
for heat losses between 50 and 100 watts per square meter, and even
higher off Lapland".
When
humans get too hot their bodies perspire (sweat) water and this water
evaporates at a high rate in windy conditions giving them "wind
chill". The excessive heating off the Gulf Stream by pollution
clouds pouring off the coast of North America is directly related to
excessive heat loss in the same region (Figure 2) because the heat
induced extreme atmospheric pressure change generates very strong
winds which "wind chill" the overheated ocean there. Gulf
Stream water temperatures range up to 13°C
to 26.5°C
(Hurricanes) and water in this temperature range requires about 2440
to 2470 thousand Joules of energy per kilogram for it to change from
a liquid into a gaseous state (Latent heat of evaporation;
Hyperphysics, 2013; Lide and Fredrickse, 1995). The loss of this
latent heat of evaporation is the main reason for the extreme heat
loss shown by the hot Gulf Stream waters offshore North America
(Figure 2).
Figure
3. shows the yearly human carbon dioxide emissions in tons per person
versus inflation adjusted income (Image from gapminder.org, 2013).
The
total carbon dioxide emitted by each country is proportional to the
size of the circles (Figure 3).
The
United Kingdom emitted the most carbon dioxide per person at the
start of the industrial revolution but the United States caught up
with the U.K. at the start of the 20th century (Figure 3).
From
then on the U.S.A. grew to be the largest emitter of carbon dioxide
(Figure 3). An average U.S. citizen causes 3 times as much carbon
dioxide to be emitted (19 tons of carbon dioxide/person) than a
person in China (4.7 tons of carbon dioxide/person)(Figure 3).
China
however due to its large population emits a lot of carbon dioxide in
total (Figure 3). 5 states, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia,
Australia, U.S.A. and Canada have the most extreme human carbon
footprints on Earth (Figure 3) (Light, 2013).
Figures
4a shows the giant equatorial current gyres in the Southern and
Northern Hemispheres.
The
southern gyre (South Atlantic) is very symetrical, while the northern
gyre (North Atlantic) shows extreme asymetry with the elongated core
rotational zone lying only a short distance east of the coast of
North America and the narrow Gulf Stream current here is elevated and
shows the highest volume of transport (150 Sverdrups = 150 million
cubic metres per second).
This
extreme asymetry is due to global warming from the large volume of
pollution clouds pouring off the industrialized zones along the east
coast of North America.
This
generates a massive atmospheric pressure gradient and accelerates the
strong prevailing South Westerly wind flow.
These
winds drive the Gulf Stream to high velocities and force surface
waters to move offshore from Ekman transport, piling them up (Figure
4b) (Csanady, 2001).
Figure
4b also shows the limited extent of the Sargasso Sea in the late 20th
century.
In
the late 18th century the Sargasso Sea extended over the entire
middle of the North Atlantic (Figure 4c; Krummel 1891).
The
extreme asymetry presently The extreme asymetry presently shown by
the North Atlantic current gyre (Figure 4d) in the middle of the 20th
century was caused by the migration of the rotational core zone more
than 1500 km north west as the strength of the prevailing South
Westerly winds picked up along the Gulf Stream offshore N. America
due to the global warming caused by pollution clouds pouring offshore
from the onshore U.S. industries.
The
extremely high current transport rates of the Gulf Stream directly
offshore the industrialized United States varied from 55 in 1942 to
up to 150 Sverdrups (millions of cubic metres/second) at the present
day indicating the effects of extreme global warming enhancement here
(Figure 4d, Csanady, 2001; Sverdrup, Johnson and Fleming, 1942;
Wales, 2013). In addition this map shows the extreme asymmetry of the
North Atlantic current gyre, the heated ocean waters in the region of
the Gulf Stream (line ornament) and the north east extension of the
Gulf Stream via the Hebrides and Norway to the Arctic Ocean (Figure
4d, Sverdrup, Johnson and Fleming, 1942). Csanady (2001) says that:-
"South
of the zero-gain contour, over most of the subtropical gyre, the
ocean gains heat as colder waters flow southward (Canary Current - my
insertion) and absorb solar heat. The energy gain through this "cold
water advection" process being, however, moderate, typically 25
watts per square meter. In this region, evaporation is also high,
raising the salinity of surface waters".
Figure 4d. shows the hot north - east trending Gulf Stream feeding
into the North Atlantic Drift and a number of south east trending
higher salinity branches which flow clockwise back into the extreme
surface salinity zone in the North Atlantic (Weather - online 2012).
The
spectacular rates of heat loss from the Gulf Stream waters off the
coast of the United States can be clearly followed north east to
Norway where they split into the eastern Yermack branch entering the
Barents Sea and the West Spitzbergen (Svalbard) Current which dives
beneath the floating Arctic Ice Cap (Figure 2). This northward
pointing tongue of hot and saline Gulf Stream water is also clearly
visible on the salinity map (Figure 5) as strong inflexions in the
contours first west of Ireland and then south of Svalbard just before
the Gulf Stream dives beneath the floating Arctic Ice cap as the West
Spitzbergen Current (Figure 5).
The
Gulf Stream (West Spitzbergen Current) follows the southern shelf
edge of the Arctic Eurasian Basin to the Laptev Sea destabilizing the
subsea Arctic methane hydrates en route and releasing ever increasing
amounts of methane into the Arctic atmosphere (Figure 6). The West
Spitzbergen Current is still losing some 50 watts per meter by the
time it reaches the floating ice cap west of Svalbard but the
shallower eastern Yermack Current looses much larger amounts of heat
(100 - 600 watts per metre depending on the seasons). Häkkinen and
Cavalieri, 1989 indicate that in mid-winter off Lapland, heat losses
reach 600 watts per square meter while in August they range from 20
to 40 watts per square meter, where the ice-sheet edge stops any
exchange of heat from the sea to the air.
Figures
7, 8 and 9 show the yearly north-eastward Gulf Stream transport of
the energy (watts) from the North Atlantic Sub-Tropical Gyre to the
Arctic Ocean. The map uses Gulf Stream flow volumes in Sverdrups (=
one million cubic metres/second) calibrated to the heat flow trend
from eight measured heat flow values along the Gulf Stream (Csanady,
2001). The calibration constant is 3.85 x ten to the power of 7. The
heat flow data comes from Csanady, 2001; Gulf Stream flow volumes
from Sverdrup, Johnson and Fleming, 1942, Wales J., 2013 and the
University of California, (CDL, 2013).
The
Gulf Stream shows a zone of anomalously large global warming heating,
extremely high rates of South Westerly wind induced ocean current
flow, extreme wind chill (caused by evaporation of the sea surface)
and elevation of the surface of the Gulf Stream along the coast of
the industrialized United States and Canada (Figures 7 to 9 and
Figure 4b).
Quite
clearly the global warming caused by pollution clouds pouring off the
coast of the industialized United States is generating a large air
pressure differential, accelerating and heating the prevailing South
Westerly Wind flow with its consequent wide ranging effects on the
Gulf Stream seen as far north as the central Arctic. As mentioned
previously this global warming has increased the rate of water
transport from 55 Sverdrups in 1942 to up to 150 Sverdrups at the
present (Sverdrup et al. 1942, Wales, 2013).
The
heat necessary to liberate methane from the methane hydrates in the
Arctic Ocean and cause runaway global warming, total deglaciation and
extinction in 2052 represents only one thousandth of the total amount
of heat being added to the Arctic ocean by the Gulf Stream (Figure
9). The Yermack Current (E. extension of the Gulf Stream) in the
Barents Sea intersects the West Spitzbergen Current (W. extension of
the Gulf Stream) at the junction of the Eurasian Basin/Laptev Sea
(Figure 7 - 9). This represents an extreme subsea - atmospheric
methane emission point above a zone of hydrothermal methane hydrates
formed on the Gakkel ridge where it enters the Laptev Sea (Light
2013).
Human-induced
global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels is found to be
continuous when the ice, land and atmosphere heating data (Church et
al. 2011) is combined with the 5 - year average ocean heat content to
a depth of 2000 metres (Levitus et al. 2012)(Figure 10a. Nuccitelli
et al. 2012).
The
lack of incorporation of this data in the global warming equation by
the IPCC, is the reason for the extreme 50 year error found in
estimating the floating Arctic ice cap melt time using global
atmospheric models as discussed in previous papers (Light 2012, Light
2013). The rate of increase of global warming heat is equivalent to 8
x ten to the power of 21 joules per year (Nuccitelli et al. 2012).
The ocean has absorbed 93.4 percent of the heat from global warming
(Figure 10b, ACS 2013). The total amount of heat generated by human
induced global warming between 1990 and 2010 is some 14 x ten power
22 joules which is equivalent to an absorbed energy flux of 2.2 x ten
power 14 watts, i.e about 0.5 watts per square metre of the earth's
surface (ACS 2013).
The
relative amount of human-induced global warming energy in watts being
added every year to the oceans, ice, land and atmosphere and being
transferred by the Gulf Stream to the subsea Arctic methane hydrates
is shown in Figure 11 (Nuccitelli et al. 2012).
Methane
release rates from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Shakova et al,
2013) combined with the area of the Arctic Ocean have been used to
determine mean methane release rates for the entire Arctic Ocean
(Light, 2013). If only a few percent of the subsea methane hydrate
reserves in the Arctic Ocean (some 1000 billion tons of Carbon) are
dissasociated and the methane released to the atmosphere, it will
cause total delaciation and a major extinction event (Light and
Solana 2002. The energy necessary to produce these Arctic methane
release rates require only about one thousandth of the heat energy
input from the Gulf Stream to dissociate the methane hydrates (Figure
11).
Furthermore
the energy necessary to produce these Arctic methane release rates
represent less than one millionth of the global warming heat energy
being added to the oceans, ice, land and atmosphere by human fossil
fuel burning (Figure 11). The total human induced global warming is
equivalent to 4 Hiroshima atomic bombs detonating every second
(Nuccitelli et al. 2012).
Humanity
has signed its death warrant and our final extinction will be carried
out by Mother Earth within the next 30 to 40 years unless we
immediately take extremely drastic action to entirely curb our carbon
dioxide pollution, eliminate large quantities of methane from the
subsea Arctic Ocean, seawater and atmosphere (down to ca 750 ppm) and
revert completely to renewable energy.
The
rate of water transport of the Gulf Stream off the industrialized
United States, south of New Foundland at 55° (Sverdrup
et al. 1942) to 150 Sverdrups by 2013 (Wales, 2013). This is a 95
Sverdrup increase in transport over 71 years, at a rate of 1.338
Sverdrups/year equivalent to 1.85 x ten to power 14 watts/year using
the conservative factor derived in figure 13.85 x ten to power 7 to
covert Sverdrups to energy transport in watts/year. Previous analysis
of earthquake activity, Arctic ice cap melt back data and the mean
atmospheric methane content of the atmosphere indicate that the
Arctic methane hydrate (clathrate) gun began to fire continuously in
2007 and the world is now far advanced into runaway global warming
which will increase the mean temperature of the atmosphere by 8
degrees C by the mid 21st century (2050 - 2052)(Light 2013). This
will lead to total deglaciation and a major extinction event. (Light
2013). The critical transport in 2007 off the Gulf Stream offshore
the indutrialized United States, directly south of New Foundland at
55° west
longitude is 42 Sverdrups which precipitated the start of the
continuous firing of the methane hydrate (clathrate) gun and runaway
global warming.
The
Gulf Stream transport rate started the methane hydrate (clathrate)
gun firing in the Arctic in 2007 when its energy/year exceeded 10
million times the amount of energy/year necessary to dissociate
subsea Arctic methane hydrates. Therefore the United States and
Canada must sharply reduce their airborne pollution from fossil fuel
extraction and use, to cut back the Gulf Stream transport rate to
less than 142 Sverdrups south of New Foundland at 55° west
longitude. Here the Gulf Stream transport rate should be reduced to
below 130 Sverdrups or even 100 Sverdrups to make sure that the
methane hydrate (clathrate) gun completely terminates firing in the
subsea Arctic. Unless this is done immediately humanity will be
facing complete extinction in a methane induced firestorm by the
middle of this century.
Our
Only Hope for Survival
Light
(2013) clearly showed the required massive reduction in global
warming fossil fuel burning emissions that the United States and
Canada must undertake immediately, if there is any faint hope of
stopping the runaway global warming that is now underway (since
2007). The power, prestige and massive economy of the United States
has been built on cheap and abundant fossil fuels and Canada is now
trying to do the same. The present end of the financial crisis and
recovery of the U.S. economy will take us down the same fossil fuel
driven road to catastrophe that the U.S. has followed before. Unless
the United States, Canada reduce their extreme carbon footprints (per
unit population) (Figures 29 and 30), they will end up being found
guilty of ecocide and genocide as the number of countries destroyed
by the catastrophic weather systems continues to increase.
The
United States and Canada with their expanding economies and their
growing frenetic extraction of fossil fuels, using the most
environmentally destructive methods possible (fracking and shale oil)
as well as the population's total addiction to inefficient gas
transport is leading our planet into suicide. We are like maniacal
lemmings leaping to their deaths over a global warming cliff. What a
final and futile legacy it will be for the leader of the free world
to be remembered only in the log of some passing alien ship recording
the loss of the Earth’s atmosphere and hydrosphere after 2080 due
to human greed and absolute energy ineptitude.
The
U.S. Government and Canada must ban all environmentally destructive
methods of fossil fuel extraction such as fracking, extracting shale
oil and coal and widespread construction of the now found to be
faulty hydrocarbon pipeline systems. All Federal Government subsidies
to fossil fuel corporations, for fossil fuel discovery and extraction
must be immediately eliminated and the money spent solely on
renewable energy development which will provide many jobs to the
unemployed. All long and short range (high consumption) fossil fuel
transport must be electrified and where the range is too large,
electrical trains must be used instead of trucks for transport. All
the major work for this conversion and railway construction can
provide a new and growing set of jobs for the unemployed. Nuclear
power stations must continue to be used and should be converted to
the safe thorium energy system until the transition is complete.
The
U.S. has to put itself on a war footing, recall its entire military
forces and set them to work on the massive change over to renewable
energy that the country needs to undertake, if it wishes to survive
the fast approaching catastrophe. The enemy now is Mother Nature who
has infinite power at her disposal and intends to take no prisoners
in this very short, absolutely brutal, 30 to 40 year war she has
begun. I cannot emphasise more, how serious humanity’s predicament
is and what we should try to do to prevent our certain final
destruction and extinction in the next 30 to 40 years if we continue
down the present path we are following .
Monitoring
the Effects of a Reduction in Atmospheric Pollution from the United
States and Canada
In
conjuction with the massive cut back in pollution emissions by the
United States and Canada, the United States must set up a project
through the Woods Hole and Rutgers universities to continuously
monitor the Gulf Stream flow rate offshore the industrialized United
States south of New Foundland at 55° the
critical transport rate of 142 Sverdrups. As already shown, the
critical transport in 2007 off the Gulf Stream of 142 Sverdrups
precipitated the start of the continuous firing of the methane
hydrate (clathrate) gun and runaway global warming. As the United
States and Canada sharply reduce their airborne pollution from fossil
fuel extraction and use, it will cut back the Gulf Stream transport
rate to less than 142 Sverdrups south of New Foundland at 55° west
longitude. Here the Gulf Stream transport rate should be reduced to
below 130 Sverdrups or even 100 Sverdrups to make sure that the
methane hydrate (clathrate) gun completely terminates firing in the
subsea Arctic and humanity has some breathing space to give it time
to completely revert to renewable energy. The Gulf Stream transport
rate monitoring work of the Woods Hole and Rutgers universities will
be of vital significance in humanities last ditch attempt at
surviving the fast approaching extinction event.
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