Wednesday, 9 November 2016

At present it looks as if it is going all Trump's way


S&P Near Limit-Down, Peso Plunges To Record Low As Trump Victory Looks Assured


8 November, 2016



This chart tells the whole story of the night: Trump - the massive underdog - appears to have pulled off precisely what he promised to do: Brexit times 10, having won virtually every key battleground state including Ohio, North Carolina and moments ago, Florida.

The Path to 270...


December rate hike odds have collapsed to 50-50...

S&P 500 Futures are very near limit down...

AP has called Florida for Trump...

US equities are down almost 5% from the close... (S&P -100, Dow -700, Nasdaq -200)
Every market is in turmoil...


Here is the latest from the critical battleground states:

Florida (with 95% counted):
Trump: 49.2%
Clinton: 47.8%
North Carolina (with 79% counted)
Trump: 49.9%
Clinton: 47.5%
Pennsylvania (29% counted)
Clinton: 56.5%
Trump: 40.3%
Michigan (with 22% counted)
Trump: 50.2%
Clinton: 44.6%
Virginia (82% counted)
Trump: 47.3%
Clinton: 47.5%
Ohio (61% counted)
Trump: 58.1%
Clinton: 39.1%
Wisconsin (21% counted)
Trump: 50.8%
Clinton: 44.1%
Georgia (45% counted)
Trump: 58.1%
Clinton: 39.2%
Colorado (51% counted)
Clinton: 49.4%
Trump: 43.2%
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Update 1046:
Trump is projected to win North Carolina by FOX
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Update 10:32PM
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Update 10:24pm
NBC project Trump winner in Ohio, and sees 168 electoral college votes for Trump, 109 for Clinton
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Update 10:15pm
Total bloodbath in markets - Peso has crashed to record lows above 20/$ and Dow Futures are down over 650 points...


VIX Futures are soaring above 22 and Gold is above $1310...

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Update 10:00 pm

Donald trump is prijected to win Montana, Hillary Clinton is projected to win Virginia.

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Update 9:40pm

Donald Trump is declared winner in Louisiana; Hillary Clinton is projected to win Connecticut.

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Update 9:13pm

Trump declared winner in Texas, Arkansas

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Update: 09.10pm

Clinton is projected to win New York; Trump Wins Dakotas, Kansas, Wyoming

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Update 09:04pm

Bloodbath in markets as Trump leads in Florida and Ohio...

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Update 8:33pm

REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN CONTROL OF HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: NBC
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Update 8:04pm

Peso and Stocks are soaring as Clinton leads Florida and takes 68-48 lead in early states.


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Update 7:41pm

And the first votes from Ohio start coming in, and once again, Trump is in the early lead with 1% of the vote counter.
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Update 7:36pm

The fight for Florida is furious, and with 46% of the vote counted, Trump has again regained a small, 25% lead.
Meanwhile, with 2% of the vote in North Carolina, another must win state for Trump, he has an early lead.
* * *
Update 7:32pm

CNN and NBC News have called West Virginia for Trump leaving him leading Hillary by 24 to 3.
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Update 7:30pm

It is all about Florida, where in a close race, Trump and Hillary have been trading the lead, and with 36% of the vote, Hilllary has a 49.2% lead to Trump's 48.0%.
* * *
Update 7:04pm

While the early states were heavily republican and thus a given for Trump - where he was just projected winner - moments ago votes have begun comiking in from key battleground states including Florida (29 electoral votes) and Virginia (13). As well as Georgia (16), South Carolina (9) and Vermont (3), which was just called for Hillary.

As of this moment Trump has won 19 electoral votes, while Hillary has 3.

With 12% of the vote in, Trump has a modest lead in Florida, and a bigger lead in Georgia

Meanwhile, in Virginia, with 3% of the vote counted, Trump has a 57.1% lead over Clinton.
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Update 7:00pm.

And following Trump, commanding lead in the first states, CNN just called Indiana and Kentucky for Donald Trump; while Hillary clinton projected to win Vermont.

While it is still very early in the evening, with only a handful of the early votes counted, the first results are coming in and Trump - at least for now - has the lead in both republican strongholds of Kentucky and Indiana with some 70% of the vote, in line with expectations.

Trump's early lead is thanks to Kentucky and Indiana.
Live feed from Bloomberg:

Donald's Trump Victory Odds Rise Above 95%



To get a sense of what is going on with Hillary Clinton's winning changes, look no further than the following chart courtesy of the NYT, which has seen Hillary's victory odds plunge from 80% to less than 5%, as Trump's, which were at 13% just a few hours ago, are now over 95%. Or, as some would say, game over.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why you should never listen to forecasters.

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