Posts
I
am reposting a report that I did of the El-Nino in the Pacific
region, probably one of the most under-reported phenomena in the
world.
Read the Caritas report HERE
Here are some items relating to drought and climate change-related items from individual countries in the South Pacific.
Much of the atoll was under water in the recent cyclone and now half the population is displaced and has lost its crops and is threatened by disease, and yet there has been little media coverage.
I did a report on this back in March after cyclone Pam hit the region - HERE
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE SENSITIVE - Health Risks in Kiribati
They will pay attention to this cyclone but you can bet your bottom dollar they will ignore the elephant in the room - ABRUPT climate change.
.....
I apologise for the wonky formatting. This has been very difficult to put together. I have even written text that has, when I have come back, disappeared, text changes size or color.
But at least the information is there.
Rapid climate change in the South Pacific
El
Nino weather system to pack a punch in Pacific
Seemorerocks
Warm water propagation through the upper 300 meters of the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific serves as oceanic fuel for El Nino events. In the above graph by NOAA, not one but two warm Kelvin Waves are indicated — one peaking during April and May, and a second ongoing now. Will a significant westerly wind burst, now lighting off in the Western Pacific, generate a third warm Kelvin Wave by August? Image source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Seemorerocks
News has come through Robertscribbler that may have great repurcussions, especially for the South Pacific.
"More fuel for El Nino’s fire and a record hot 2015 on the way…
"Last
week, a set of climate models predicted the emergence of a large and
moderately strong westerly wind burst running against the trades
associated with an eastward propagating cloudy and rainy phase of the
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). And, over the past few days a
moderate strength, but very wide-ranging, westerly wind pattern
appeared....
"Today,
20 to 35 mile per hour westerly winds are prevalent along a 2,500
mile stretch of ocean running from just east of the Philippines,
across an equatorial zone just north of New Guinea, and on eastward
for hundreds more miles in the direction of the Date Line.
These
... "are predicted to strengthen to near gale force intensity. But
it’s the size of the zone that may have the greatest impact.
"Strong,
long-fetch westerlies in this region of the world have a tendency to
push warm surface waters, now topping off at 31 degrees Celsius (and
1-2 C above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 average),
downward and eastward. This heat pump action generates what, in
meteorological parlance, are known as warm Kelvin Waves. And warm
Kelvin Waves are high energy fuel for strengthening El Ninos"
We have heard news of increasingly extreme weather, from unprecedented heat and wildfires in Alaska to over 800 deaths from a deadly combination of heat and humidity.
One area of the world that is right in the middle of climate change and the intensifying el-Nino phenomenon is the Pacific - and yet there is a worrying paucity of information from that part of the world.
I have collected what I could find during a morning's search and am sharing this with you.
I intend to look into this further and intend to bring further updates.
The following is a general picture of the el-Nino phenomenon
El Niño in the Pacific (as of 9 June 2015)
The
unfolding El Niño event is predicted by climate models to be a major
event, possibly one of the strongest ever recorded
WHAT
DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE PACIFIC?
Drought
Past
events and meteorological data suggests that the risk of severe
drought is high in PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia,
Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, while Niue and Cook Island are subject to high
risk of drought due to their more eastern location. The risk of
drought is also high for Palau, Northern Marianas and Guam, FSM and
Marshall Islands.
Increased
rainfall
Above
normal rainfall is expected in Kiribati between June and August 2015
Cyclones
There
is an elevated risk of intense cyclones, potentially early start and
late nish of the cyclone season, and an elevated likelihood of
cyclones particularly in Niue, Samoa and Cook Islands (east of
Tonga).
Diseases
heightened
risk of certain vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue
fever due to abundance of mosquitoes and decreased immunity due to
undernutrition.
The following account from Vanuatu paints a picture of
how things are in many parts of the Pacific
how things are in many parts of the Pacific
Strange
weather patterns disrupting food supplies is a critical issue in the
Pacific. Fr Denis Revi from Vanuatu says it’s the number one
environmental issue for his country.
It’s
hotter than it used to be and some places in summer may experience no
rain. Villages rely on the rain for water. When people can’t grow
certain crops because rain hasn’t fallen as expected, there is a
shortage of food, and people have to buy it at higher costs.
One of the best reports that gave individual accounts from around the Pacific was Caritas' Pacific Environment Repor
Here are some items relating to drought and climate change-related items from individual countries in the South Pacific.
Tuvalu
Tuvalu drought could be dry run for dealing with climate change
Tiny
nation is suffering from severe La Niña pattern but its problems run
deeper with the risk of being swallowed whole by the Pacific Ocean
These two videos, produced locally, give a good account of the issues relating to Tuvalu
Action Against Climate Change Tuvalu: Water and drought
This
short documentary explores how climate change is affecting access to
water and drought in Tuvalu. Rising sea levels have led to saltwater
intrusions, affecting groundwater, the main source for the daily
freshwater needs for Tuvaluans. It was created by Onorina Saukelo of
the University of the South Pacific as part of the Action Against
Climate Change (A2C2) project, initiated by the Pacific Media
Assistance
DEC
2013
JAN,
2015
Tuvalu, more than perhaps any other Pacific nation is threatened by climate change and by sea level rise.
I did a report on this back in March after cyclone Pam hit the region - HERE
Water supplies reach needy Tuvalu atoll
A Red Cross official in Tuvalu says they have got drinking water to Nui island but more will be needed soon in the wake of damage caused by Cyclone Pam.
Vanuatu
The
island of Ambrym has managed to escape the worst effects of the
category five storm but its people will soon need help
Kiribati
Drought impacts Kiribati southern islands
About thirty thousand people living on Kiribati's southern islands are having to carry water some distance for household use.
The government says it will intervene if the current drought continues. Fruit trees including taro and coconuts are the worst affected. Coconuts for copra production is the only source of revenue for the outer islands. Director of Kiribati Meteorological Service Moreti Tibriano helped develop the government's strategic drought plans
'They say that in 30 years maybe Kiribati will disappear'
On the tiny coral islands of Kiribati sandbags hold back the rising sea and drought means no fresh water. For the Pacific Islanders living at the sharp edge of climate change any result in Lima will be too little, too late
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE SENSITIVE - Health Risks in Kiribati
Responding
to climate sensitive health risks in Kiribati’ is one of nine
country-specific videos in the series ‘Climate Change Adaptation –
the Pacific Way’, produced by the Secretariat of the Pacific
Community through the €11.4 million European Union funded Global
Climate Change Alliance: Pacific Small Island States (GCCA: PSIS)
project.
Tonga
El Nino arrives in Tonga
May
15, 2015
El
Nino has arrived in Tonga bringing cooler nights, the Ministry of
Meteorology said in a statement yesterday, 14 May.
El
Nino, the movement of warm ocean water from the north of Australia to
South American crossing the Pacific Islands every three to seven
years, changes the weather patterns in many countries.
For
Tonga, El Nino usually brings cooler night time temperatures from May
to October, less rainfall from November to April and more cyclones
than usual.
Meanwhile,
drought conditions are currently being experienced throughout Tonga,
and drought warnings are now in force for all of Tonga. Drier than
normal conditions are also expected during the next six months.
Niuafo’ou
recorded the highest maximum day tie temperature of 33.0 degree
centigrade on 3 April.
Rainfall
across the country was very low during April. Fua’amotu recorded
17.1mm of rainfall which is the lowest April rainfall in its record
in 36 years.
Nuku’alofa
recorded 28.9mm which is the 3rd lowest April rainfall in 71 years.
Photo: RNZ
He says some of the smaller islands, which depend entirely on rainfall, had to have water shipped out to them last year.
This film on climate change in Tonga is 4 years old
Tonga working on drought response
A working group has been established in Tonga to respond to the current drought conditions.
18 May 2015
Photo: RNZ
The
director of Meterology in Tonga, Ofa Faanunu, says Tonga is coming
into its dry season, but has already been experiencing drought
conditions for eight months.
Mr Faanunu says the national emergency management committee met last week to discuss the conditions, and a working group was set up.
"We've recorded the driest April in our records here in Tongatapu. With the forecast as it is, we are taking precautions and trying to come up with measures and trying to mitigate the effects of this drought, if it will continue."
Ofa Faanunu says they expect drier than normal conditions during El Nino periods, and they will be preparing for the long term when when the working group meets this week
11 June, 2015
The Tonga Metservice says it is critical for Tonga's smaller islands that the effects of an ongoing drought are mitigated.
The director of Meteorology in Tonga, Ofa Faanunu, says Tonga is coming into its dry season now, but has been experiencing drought conditions for eight months.
He says last year 80 percent of squash and pumpkin crops were destroyed by the drought, and water had to be shipped to Ha'apai and Vava'u.
Mr Faanunu says Eu'a is also experiencing water shortages, which the government is trying to respond to.
"A lot of livelihoods depend on rainfall. A lot of our smaller islands don't have ground water and depend entirely on rain water. So if for the next three months we continue to have drier than normal conditions, it will be critical for our smaller islands."
Ofa Faanunu says they are asking the public to collect as much rain water as possible, and not to be wasteful with it.
5 December, 2015
A four-month drought in the central Tongan island group of Ha’apai is putting stress on drinking water supplies already diminished by saltwater intrusion.
Some people – especially women and children mostly affected by the water shortage – from the more remote communities are needing to travel long distances (into central Pangai) to get water from churches and schools who have a more secure water supply. This is putting extra strain on those other sources.....
Villages in the area had very minimal rainfall during the last wet season in June and July and are now experiencing water shortages,’ says Leo Duce of Caritas Aotearoa New Zealand.
‘These communities have been aware of weather pattern changes and have asked Caritas to support them with the establishment of traditional and commercial water collection systems to collect water in the next 2-3 months when more rains are expected.’
Global Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise in Tonga
This film on climate change in Tonga is 4 years old
Fiji
26
September 2014
Reports
from Fiji say the country is rapidly approaching a state of drought,
with no substantial rainfall since the 17th of May.
The
director of the Fiji Meteorological Service, Alipate Waqaicelua, says
there is no indication that rain will arrive soon.
He
says hydro-electric power plants estimate another month before water
levels reach critical levels and the government is already making
supplementary diesel generators available.
A
meeting today is expected to decide whether to declare a drought.
The
Fiji Water Authority CEO, Opetaia Ravai, says the situation is under
control and there are no official water restrictions in place yet.
But
he says two of the three main water sources supplying Suva are below
the critical level, and many in western residential areas need
supplementary truck deliveries of water.
He
says some rural villages and outer islands have also requested water
deliveries and this is being barged to them by the Government.
Mr
Ravia says the MET Service has reported the dry spell will continue
until January next year.
A
report from the Fijian meteorological service - 15 May, 2015
In
Brief
- A weak El Niño event has established itself in the tropical Pacific region;
- El Niño is expected to continue throughout 2015, and possibly further intensify;
- Most parts of the country experienced drier than normal Wet Season (November 2014 to April 2015), in particular, the Western Division, northern parts of Vanua Levu and southern Lau Group;
- This potentially would not have allowed recovery from the extremely dry conditions of the 2014 Dry Season (May to October 2014);
- The amount of rainfall is very likely to decrease as we progress into the Dry Season (May to October);
- Taking note of the current rainfall deficiencies, transition to Dry Season, El Niño conditions and model prediction for below normal rainfall, Western Division, northern Vanua Levu and some maritime re-gions could face severe rainfall deficiencies during the current Dry Season in progress
The
peak months for the dry conditions are expected to be from June to
August.
Most
parts of the country experienced drier than normal conditions
over the last three months, from February to April 2015
Rainfall was below normal over majority of the Western Division
during the last Wet Season from November 2014 to April 2015.
The
Western Division and northern Vanua Levu were in severe
rainfall deficiency during the last Dry Season from May to
October 2014. While at times some significant rainfall events have
been recorded over parts of the country during the 2014/15 Wet
Season, rainfall has not been as much, in particular over the Western
Division, to fully recover from the rainfall deficiency of the
preceding Dry Season.
Consequently,
majority of the country are currently in either a warning state for
meteorological drought or in a drought at all three timescales that
FMS monitors drought, that is, 3, 6 and 12 month timescale (Table 2).
The drought conditions may not be so apparent at present time, but
this situation may become
more visible as we progress into the Dry Season.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.