Ukraine civil war update - 07/14.2014

Crucial combat operation are 

possibly taking place iseveral locations (UPDATED)

Vineyard of the Saker,

14 July, 2014

It is too early to post a formal SITREP simply because the situation is way too confused, but I want to give you all a small heads-up on what is happening right now.  

Take a look at that map:

Combat situation as of July 13th

The city on the top right is Luganks, center Left Donetsk and to the south you have the border with (Russia indicated by РОССИЯ).  In blue the Ukie forces and in red the Novorussian ones.

First, there are reports that the Novorussians have taken both the Donetsk and Lugansk airports.  However, the Ukie sides claims that it had liberated the Luganks airport were Ukie forces had been surrounded for many weeks by the Resistance.  Obviously, these are mutually exclusive claims.  Finally, the Resistance also said that it had used a captured Su-25 close air support aircraft to attack Ukie positions and that this Su-25 had taken off from the Lugansk airport (FYI - the Su-25 does not need a runway to take off, it could even do that from a grass field).

Second, the Ukie have attempted an envelopment maneuvere in which they hope to surround Donetsk and then cut the city off from Lugansk.  This maneuver apparently failed and with a Resistance counter-attack from around Saur-Mogila (САУР-МОГИЛА on the map) the Resistance is attempting to surround and "squeeze" the Ukie force along the Russian border.  The Ukies, who clearly now see the danger are making a desperate effort at breaking through the Amvrosievka (АМВРОСИЕВКА on the map) to prevent that and to free the Ukie forces.

So what is at stake?

There are reportedly 3000 Ukie soliders currently surrounded in the "southern cauldron" as the region along the Russian border has been called.  Here is what two of them who managed to escape are saying about their situation:

The situation is such that the battalion is in a difficult situation, both in terms of resources and its territorial position. What they show in the news – that we are encircling the separatists – is, where out battalion is [stationed], exactly the opposite. The guys are at the end of their rope. It’s trouble there. It’s a disaster.  On one side, there are the forces of the Russian Federation standing there, practically 4 kilometres from us. And there is such military equipment there, believe me, that nothing would help us. It’s no longer about flack jackets and military equipment. Do you understand? It’s a completely different [situation]. We just have to get our guys out of there.  Unequivocally, the battalion can’t remain there. Well, the guys stationed there, they are like condemned men facing execution. I say this responsibly – I was stationed there and I came from there. And even then, we have to take them out, carefully. We have to take them out, carefully.  And, honestly, I don’t know how this [rescue] is to be done but it must be done. It must be done and it must be done immediately.  Let me repeat, the situation as of today’s morning, I called there and I called yet again: not a single unit of military equipment has arrived, they [the soldiers] are standing in an open field.  Because the battalion we talk about, as a matter of fact, they can perform combat mission only as formulated in the beginning – i.e. guard duty of [important strategic] objects in the region, let’s say, guarding certain checkpoints, but only further away from the epicenter of hostilities.  However in the midst of combat action it can’t fulfill any mission because of the lack of needed equipment. Even if such equipment were to be provided to the battalion, there is nobody trained to use [it].

Now let's look at Lugansk, specifically at the airport.

Ukrainian special forces have been surrounded by the Resistance there for weeks.  A lot of them, not less than 300, had already left the airport and surrendered.  I saw interviews of Resistance fighters made yesterday evening and they seem absolutely sure that they would take control of the airport very soon.  This morning both the Resistance and Poroshenko announced that they had taken control of the airport.  Here is what Poroshenko wrote in this FaceBook page:

Translation: President Petro Poroshenko has just been informed by the headquarters of the ATO (anti-terrorist operation) that Ukrainian forces sucessfully thought their way to the Lugansk airport.  Glory to the Ukraine!

Well, I am not sure as to what to make of that. Both sides are claiming victory here and the reason for that is quite simple: the forces which had been (or still are) surrounded at the Lugansk airport were some of the very best the Ukies had: elements of the 80th Airborne Regiment, 25th Airborne Division and the 8th Special Forces Regiment.  Furthermore, the airport is the crucial node for any encirclement of Lugansk.

There is little doubt that the Ukies are throwing in their best resources to avoid a disaster and that at least three Ukie armored columns were sent in to relieve the pressure on the surrounded Ukie forces.  At least one of these columns (possibly two) were detected and destroyed.  Here is some footage of the aftermath:

In this case, this column was apparently destroyed near the town of Marinovka (not shown on the map above).

The video above shows what is apparently another Ukie column destroyed near Lugansk. 

The Ukies also lost an An-26 transport aircraft, also near Lugansk, which was apparently shot down by a missile.  The Resistance claims that it did it, but the Ukies say that the missile was fired from Russia.

While all this seems to be excellent news for the Novorussian Resistance, Strelkov is, as usual, much more cautious

Please click "captions" for English subtitles

As for the latest news out of the Russian media, this is what their correspondents are reporting:

Attack on Lugansk failed

2 Ukie Aircraft (An-26 & Su-25) shot down (+2 yesterday)

100 dead Ukies in 2 different column which were destroyed

1 Kindergarten destroyed by Ukie (kids had been evacuated)

Several civilian buildings (including one hospital) hit in Lugansk

1  Ukie column (with 50 tanks) fully destroyed

1 Ukie colum (with 50 tanks) repelled with heavy losses for the Ukies

Interestingly, Russian experts are speculating that the combined attacks on Lugansk and Donetsk were distracting attacks aimed at drawing Resistance forces away form the south were up to 5'000 Ukie solidiers had attempted to cut off Novorussia from Russia and surround both Donetsk and Lugansk.  According to the same sources sources, this feint failed to deceive the Resistance forces.  The Ukies then failed to take the hill Saur-Mogila and ended up being surronded in the so-called  "southern cauldron": a long corridor between 4km and 8km in width.  It appears that the Resistance forces did manage to cut off the Ukie corridor in several locations where the mined the fields before withdrawing.  The Resistance is now engaging these forces with artillery from a longer range. 

We should note that, at least so far, Kiev has categorically denied all of the above.

Still, that version would explain the number of Ukie strikes on Russian border posts all along the border.  Add to this that Lavrov issued a stern warning about consequences which would be entirely the Ukie's fault, and you get the image: it is possible that Russia will simply strike the Ukie forces in the "souther cauldron" from within Russia.  Of course, and as always, they will do no such thing if the Resistance forces succeed in doing this without overt Russian help.

Stay tuned, as soon as the situation becomes clearer, I will post another SITREP.

The Saker

UPDATE: thanks to 'SD' who send me a link to an article which claims that Russia is now considering "surgical strikes" on select key Ukie targets.:

Here is reporting from mainstream western media

This from a report from Igor Strelkov:

"Units of the army LNR gave battle to the enemy in the region of the village Roskoshnoye and directly, the area surrounding the airport, where it was possible to include a small remnants of the armored vehicles of the aggressors.

“According to preliminary data, the army LNR managed to destroy at least 5 tanks, 2 BMP, 2 BTR, mortar battery, several "Ural" the aggressor and about a hundred soldiers of the aggressor. Thus, Luhansk team has maintained a blockade of the airport".

Ukraine says Russian army officers fighting alongside rebels

(Reuters) - Ukraine accused Russian army officers on Monday of fighting alongside separatists in the east of the country and said Moscow was once more building up its troops on the joint border.

Reuters,

14 July, 2014

A missile that downed a Ukrainian transport plane carrying eight people near the border was probably fired from Russia, Ukrainian officials said.

President Petro Poroshenko held an emergency meeting of his security chiefs after a weekend of Ukrainian air strikes on rebel positions near the border with Russia and charges by Moscow that Kiev killed a Russian man with a cross-border shell. The war of words between Kiev and Moscow and intense fighting, in which Ukrainian forces say they inflicted heavy losses on the rebels, marked a sharp escalation in the 3-1/2 month conflict in which several hundred Ukrainian servicemen, civilians and rebels have been killed. "Information has ... been confirmed that Russian staff officers are taking part in military operations against Ukrainian forces," Poroshenko said.

Diplomatic efforts to defuse the crisis have so far made little progress. However, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said a "Contact Group" - which includes Russia, Ukraine and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) - aimed to talk to the rebels by video link on Tuesday and meet them in person soon afterwards.

Speaking after what he described as "difficult talks" on the telephone with his French, Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, Steinmeier said all parties were making a "strong effort" for the Contact Group to hold the video conference and agree a venue for the direct meeting.

Poroshenko made similar complaints of Russian incursions on Sunday to the European Union with an eye to pushing the bloc to exert greater pressure, and possibly more sanctions, on Moscow.

Poroshenko told his security chiefs that government forces, which lost 23 men in a rocket attack on an army camp last Friday, were now facing a new Russian missile system and there would have to be a change in tactics. He gave no details.

Accusing Russia of embarking on a course of escalation in Ukraine's eastern regions, National and Security Council spokesman Andriy Lysenko told journalists: "In the past 24 hours, deployment of (Russian) units and military equipment across the border from the Sumy and Luhansk border points was noticed. The Russian Federation continues to build up troops on the border."

NATO said Russia had increased its forces along the border and now had 10,000-12,000 troops in the area.

Lysenko added that three Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 12 more injured in the fighting in the past 24 hours.

Moscow's response to the cross-border shelling and the Ukrainian reports of Russian troops being moved up to the border raised again the prospect of Russian intervention, after weeks in which President Vladimir Putin had appeared intent on disengaging, pulling back tens of thousands of troops he had massed at the frontier.

MILITARY SUCCESS

The Ukrainian army said it had broken a rebel encirclement of Luhansk airport on Sunday night. A spokesman for the so-called Luhansk People's Republic said 30 volunteer fighters had been killed in Ukrainian fire on Oleksandrivka, a village to the east of the town, Russia's Interfax news agency said.

As military action continued on Monday near the rebel-controlled border town of Luhansk, Ukraine's defence minister said a Ukrainian AN-26 transport plane, taking part in the military campaign against the rebels, had been shot down by a rocket which was "probably" fired from Russian territory.

Officials said two crew members, out of the eight people on board, had been in contact with the army general staff and a search and rescue operation was underway. The fate of the other six people was not immediately known.

Defence Minister Valery Heletey said the plane had been flying at a height of 6,500 metres and was out of range of any weapon the separatists had.

"So the plane was downed from another, more powerful rocket weapon which was fired, probably, from the territory of the Russian Federation," he said, according to Poroshenko's website.

The rocket may have been a Pantsir ground-to-air or self-guided air-to-air rocket fired from a Russian plane, he said.

Lysenko said separatists, backed by what he described as Russian "mercenaries", had fired on Ukrainian border guards in an attempt to give cover as armoured vehicles and equipment were being brought into the country.

And he again rejected Russian charges that Ukraine forces had fired a shell over the border killing a Russian man on Sunday - an incident that Moscow has described as an "aggressive act" which would have "irreversible consequences". "The (rebel) fighters systematically fire mortars and shoot into Russian territory, which killed a Russian citizen," Lysenko told journalists.

Russia said it had invited monitors from the OSCE, a European security and rights body, to visit two of its border crossings with Ukraine as a sign of goodwill.

In a weekend of fierce combat, Ukraine said its warplanes had inflicted heavy losses on the pro-Russian separatists in air strikes on their positions, including an armoured convoy which Kiev said had crossed the border from Russia.

Poroshenko's office said Kiev would present documentary proof of incursions from Russia to the international community via diplomats.

But Russia kept up pressure on Kiev over the cross-border shell incident. A Russian newspaper, citing a source close to the Kremlin, said on Monday that Moscow was considering the possibility of pinpoint strikes on Ukraine in retaliation.

EU SANCTIONS

A few hundred Ukrainians protested against France's sale of two Mistral helicopter carrier vessels to Russia outside a museum in Kiev on Monday where the French national day was being celebrated.

Russian seamen are training in France on the amphibious assault ships which will be delivered by the end of the year under a 1.2 billion euro ($1.6 billion) deal signed in 2011.

Poroshenko complained on Sunday of alleged Russian incursions into Ukraine in a telephone call with the European Union's Herman Van Rompuy.

The EU - Ukraine's strategic partner with which it signed a landmark political and trade agreement last month - targeted a group of separatist leaders with travel bans and asset freezes on Saturday but avoided fresh sanctions on Russian business.

The conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in April when armed pro-Russian fighters seized towns and government buildings, weeks after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula in response to the overthrow of a pro-Moscow president in Kiev.

Well over 200 Ukrainian servicemen had been killed in the fighting and several hundred civilians and rebels.

The fighting has escalated sharply in recent days after Ukrainian forces pushed the rebels out of their most heavily fortified bastion, the town of Slaviansk.

Hundreds of rebels, led by a self-proclaimed defence minister from Moscow, have retreated to the Ukrainian city of Donetsk, built reinforcements and pledged to make a stand. The once-bustling city has been emptying in fear of a battle.

Rebel fighters on Monday were evacuating about 200 Donetsk residents by bus across the Russian border into the Rostov area.

Vladimir, a 55-year-old coal miner, was sending his wife with two children to relatives across the border. "The Ukrainians have already cut off water. Electricity is only just working. How can you live without water and light?" he said.($1 = 0.7331 Euros)

Ukraine military plane shot down

Radio NZ,

15 July, 2014

A Ukrainian military transport plane shot down in the east of the country was probably hit by a rocket fired from Russian territory, Ukrainian officials said.

The country's defence ministry said the AN-26 aircraft had been flying at such high altitude that the weapons used by pro-Russian rebels would not have reached it.

The ministry indicated some of the crew of the downed plane have survived, and a search and rescue operation was underway.

Russia has made no comment. Separately, Nato reported a Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border and estimated Russia has between 10,000 and 12,000 troops there.

Russia denies supporting and arming the separatists, and has invited officials from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to monitor its border with Ukraine.

Rebel forces - who earlier said they had targeted the aircraft in the Luhansk region - claimed they had captured the crew and were questioning them in the town of Krasnodon, according to reports in Russian media.

Ukraine's defence ministry indicated some of the crew survived.

Photo: AFP

Earlier on Monday, the Ukrainian air force said it had delivered "five powerful air strikes" in the region in an effort to end the blockade of a strategic airport. the BBC reports.

Several targets were hit near the airport in the rebel-held city of Luhansk, a military spokesman said.

Ukraine's military later said the airport had been "unblocked" and the army had retaken several villages.

Separatist rebels have been fighting the government in Kiev since declaring independence in Luhansk and the neighbouring region of Donetsk in April.

The government began an "anti-terrorist operation" in April to crush the rebellion in the eastern regions.

More than 1,000 civilians and combatants are believed to have died in the fighting, which followed Russia's annexation of Crimea in March.