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It
is the last day of July and here in Wellington, New Zealand
I
should be freezing my butt off (at least figuratively).
Instead I am
sitting in front of my computer in my pyjamas and in bare feet!
Unheard of!
NZ set a record for the warmest June and I would be
surprised if when/if the figures come out next month there wasn't yet
another record.
Our magnolia tree has been in bud for WEEKS now -
since before the shortest day.
Now
read Robertscribbler's latest article -
Jet
Stream So Weak Winds Are Running From Pacific to Atlantic Across the
North Pole
30
July, 2014
(Winds flowing north from just west of Hawaii, through the Bering Strait, over the North Pole and on into the North Atlantic as seen by NOAA’s GFS model and imaged by Earth Nullschool.)
This
is a very odd pattern for global surface winds.
In
the central Pacific, along a band above 20 North Latitude and about
500 miles west of Hawaii, a broad stream of easterly winds yesterday
took a turn toward the north. The wind field was then pulled into a
long frontal boundary spinning out from a large low pressure system
off Irkutsk, Russian and driven on toward the Western Aleutian Island
Chain.
The
winds continued their sprint northward through the Bering Strait
before being again captured by a low, this time over the East
Siberian Sea. Sped on by this second nudge, the winds, running at
15-25 mph, spilled over the North Pole and into a third low spinning
just north of Svalbard. This system shoved the winds southward over
the North Atlantic and finally into a cyclone just north of England
where the winds finally turned eastward, returning to the prevailing
west-east global flow.
This
is an epic journey in defiance of typical and prevailing weather
patterns spanning thousands of miles and three oceans. It is
decidedly not normal.
A
Ruptured Jet Stream and A Flood of Winds Across the Pole
Typically,
cold air over the polar region will insulate the Arctic from these
kinds of circumpolar flows. The cold air to the north, warm air to
the south, drives winds faster around the pole, creating a kind of
wind wall that keeps south-north flows out of the Arctic. It is a
pattern that tends to isolate Arctic air from the rest of the global
air circulation to the south.
(Mostly disassociated Jet Stream with large rupture running north through the Bering Strait and on over the polar zone. Image source: University of Maine.)
But,
during recent years, temperatures in the far north have been rapidly
rising by in some cases as much as 0.5 to 1.0 degrees Celsius per
decade. This heating of the polar zone, together with land and sea
ice loss, has resulted in a weakening of the circumpolar wind pattern
called the Jet Stream. This weakening has collapsed the wall keeping
southerly winds from rushing over the Arctic as we see today.
The
current pattern involves an extreme weakness and high amplitude wave
in the Jet Stream extending from the Central Pacific and into the
Arctic, extending well above the 80 degree North Latitude line. What
remains of the cold air pool has been split, with some of the cold
air mass shoved toward Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago and the
remainder shoved toward the Kara Sea. Driving through it all is a
wedge of warmer air accompanied with the southerly winds, winds that
originated in the tropics near Hawaii.
Links:
The
Arctic Methane Monster Exhales: Third Tundra Crater Found
30
Julu, 2014
(One of three massive holes found in Siberia. The prominent theory for the holes’ formation is a catastrophic destabilization of sub-surface methane under thawing tundra. Image source: The Moscow Times.)
Add
salt, sand, and thawing methane pockets buried beneath scores of feet
of warming permafrost together and what do you get? Massive
explosions that rip 200-300 foot deep and 13-98 foot wide holes in
the Siberian earth.
The
name for the place where this strange event first happened, in
Russian, is Yamal, which roughly translates to mean ‘the end of the
Earth.’ Now,
three holes of similar structure have appeared over a 700 mile wide
expanse of Siberian tundra.
The most likely culprit? Catastrophic destabilization of Arctic
methane stores due to human-caused warming.
A
Tale of Dragon’s Breath: How the Yamal Event Likely Unfolded
About
10,000 years ago, as the great glaciers of the last ice age gave up
their waters in immense surges and outbursts into the world ocean, a
broad section of Siberian tundra was temporarily submerged by rising
seas. But with the loss of the great glaciers, pressures upon the
crust in these zones subsided and, slowly, the newly flooded tundra
rose, again liberating itself, over thousands of years of uplift,
from the waters.
The
land remained frozen throughout this time, covered in a layer of ice
— solid permafrost hundreds of feet deep. But the oceanic flood
left its mark. Salt water and sand found its way into cracks in the
icy soil, depositing in pockets throughout the frozen region’s
earth.
And
there this chemical brew remained, waiting to be deep-frozen and
sequestered as the glaciers of a new age of ice advanced over the
Earth.
(Arctic warming trend from 1960 to 1990. Image source: NOAA.)
But
this event, foretold and anticipated in the bones of Earth, did not
come to pass. Instead, human beings began dumping billions of tons of
heat-trapping carbon into the atmosphere. They dug up mountains of
ancient carbon and burned it. And now those mountains of carbon lived
in the air, thickening it, trapping heat.
For
Siberia, this meant rising temperatures. At first, the increase was
slow. Perhaps a tenth of a degree per decade. But by the time the
20th Century was closing and the 21st Century emerged, the pace of
warming was greater than at any time even the Earth could remember —
an increase of 0.5 degrees Celsius or more every ten years.
Now,
the glaciers will probably not return for hundreds of thousands of
years, if ever. And now, the brew that was waiting to be buried is
instead thawing and mixing. A deep, heat-based cracking of the frozen
soil that flash-bakes an alchemical mixture deposited over the ages.
The result: dragon’s
breath erupting from the very soil.
Explosive
Eruptions From Smoking Earth
The
earth was first observed to smoke. This continued for some time and
then a bright flash followed by a loud bang exploded above the
tundra. After the mists and smoke cleared, a large hole surrounded by
mounds of ejected soil was visible. The hole tunneled like a cone
more than 200 feet down. Its walls were frozen permafrost.
(Broad expanse of Siberia containing three massive holes, indications of explosive eruptions in the permafrost set off by thawing methane mixed with salt, water and sand. The holes are all in the range of 200-300 feet deep. Deep enough to contact subsoil methane pockets or, in some cases, frozen clathrate. Image source: The Daily Mail.)
A
single event of this kind might be easy to overlook as an aberration.
A freak case that might well be attributed to unique conditions. But
over the past two weeks not one, not two, but three large holes, all
retaining the same features, have appeared within the same region of
Yamal, Russia.
A
single event may well be easily marked off as a strange occurrence,
but three look more like the start of a trend.
Weather
Underground notes:
The
holes may foreshadow bigger problems for our planet in the near
future, scientists worry. Permafrost around the Arctic contains
methane and carbon dioxide, and both could
be dangerous to our environment if released,
according to a report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. As
long as the permafrost remains frozen, the report adds, this isn’t
a concern, but climate models have
painted a grim future for
rising temperatures in the Arctic.
And
with temperatures in the Arctic, and especially over Siberia, rising
so fast, the permafrost is not remaining frozen. It is instead
thawing. And together with this thaw comes a growing release of
carbon stored there over the 2-3 million year period since the ice
ages began their long reign. It is a release we can expect to
continue together with human-caused warming. One that is critical to
abate as much as possible, if we are to have much hope for a climate
favorable for human beings and the continuing diversity of life on
this world. How rapidly and violently the Arctic responds to our
insults depends on how hard we push it. And right now, through an
amazing human carbon emission, we are now pushing the Arctic very
hard.
Jason
Box, a prominent Arctic researcher and head of the Dark Snow
Project, noted
Sunday in his blog, Meltfactor:
What’s
the take home message, if you ask me? Because elevated atmospheric
carbon from fossil fuel burning is the trigger mechanism poking the
climate dragon. The trajectory we’re on is to awaken a runaway
climate heating that will ravage global agricultural systems leading
to mass famine, conflict. Sea level rise will be a small problem by
comparison. We simply MUST lower atmospheric carbon emissions. This
should start with limiting the burning of fossil fuels from
conventional sources; chiefly coal, followed by tar sands [block the
pipeline]; reduce fossil fuel use elsewhere for example in liquid
transportation fuels; engage in a massive reforestation program to
have side benefits of sustainable timber, reduced desertification,
animal habitat, aquaculture; and redirect fossil fuel subsidies to
renewable energy subsidies. This is an all hands on deck moment.
We’re in the age of consequences.
If
the warming trends continue and fossil fuel burning does not abate,
these holes may be only minor explosive outbursts compared to what
may follow. In any case, given current trends, it appears entirely
possible that more and more of these strange holes will be appearing
throughout the Arctic. An ugly sign of the danger inherent to our
time.
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