Monday 28 July 2014

Ukraine civil war update - 07/27/2014

Why Novorussians and Russians are right to treat the Ukie soldiers with compassion and kindness


27 July, 2014


For a couple of days now, I have posted various items showing the large number of casualties amongst the Ukie forces fighting against Novorussia, and I have observed with some amusement how many of you have expressed doubts about the veracity of these figures. Today Nora drew my attention to a short video of a Ukie army recruiting officer being confronted by a crowd of civilians, mostly women, mostly mothers. The video is a few days old, but this version is subtitled in English, so please watch it now:




Now, there are a couple of thing I would like to share with you after this video.

First, believe me, these women are aware of the terrifying rumours which speak of casualty figures way higher then those mentioned officially. Keep in mind that a lot of Ukie soldiers simply disappear either torn into unrecoverable small pieces of meat and bones, or hastily buried into mass graves by their own officers to cover up their deaths, either quietly killed and secretly buried by the civilians of Novorussia (I have seen a video of Ukie recruits who say that they are terrified of the local civilians who smile at them and then kill them as soon as they get an opportunity).

Second, and this what a lot of you are missing, the Ukie and Novorussian militaries are dramatically different. Let me explain:

Ukrainian military:

The Ukrainian military has been completely neglected by all the governments in power since 1991. Do you remember the condition of the Russian military during the First Chechen war? Now imagine taking that military, and instead of turning it around, you let it further degrade for another 20 years. That would be more or less what the Ukie military is today. Add to this that most officers and soldiers do not want to fight. Besides fighting a war they personally don't want (again, not all Ukrainians are Right Sector Nazi fanatics!), they are also literally hungry (they eat snakes now) and totally under equipped. The command and control system of the Ukie military is more or less dead. The ONLY advantage of the Ukies is the sheer number of aircraft, tanks and artillery, and that really is a purely quantitative advantage.

Novorussian military:

It is composed solely of volunteers. Even the partial mobilization decreed recently in Donetsk is a moral obligation: you are told you have to show up, but if you do not, nobody will get you. Second, there are a lot of very experienced soldiers and officers on the Novorussian side. As as a direct result of that the following is true:

1 Ukie Grad MLRS is not equal to 1 Novorussian Grad MLRS

That is literally true. Even if it is exactly the same Grad MLRS. In fact, many, possibly most Grads used by the Novorussians are trophies taken away from the Ukies. But whereas the Uky artillery almost exclusively shoots in more or less random way in the general direction of the other side, hitting only civilians, the Novorussians use each Grad with devastating effectiveness choosing the correct munition, landing it with surgical accuracy right on top of the Ukie positions.

Then look at the footage of Novorussian fighters: a lot of them are 30+ to 40+ years old group. These are folks who have already spent a lot of time in the military, often with experience of war, and who know their job very very well. Yes, it is true that the Novorussians still need many more of such experiences "wolves of war" as they are called in Russian, but they already have a lot of them. So on one hand you have clueless but young guys, and on the other, older, but experienced pros who know how to survive.

Furthermore, you can look at any video shot on the Novorussian side, and it is clear that their morale is extremely high. Most of you have probalby seen the footage made a few days ago of the Vostok Battalion on Saur Mogila where the local commander, Samurai, was preparing his men to go into battle to attack the Ukies in the southern cauldron and then the footage shows them jumping on their vehicles and going into battle. Sure, the guys were tired and serious, but also extremely motivated and impatient to resume the fight. The contrast with footage taken on the Ukie side could not have been stronger.

And then, let's be honest about it, by now there are a lot of very experienced fighters from Russia in the Novorussian military. Again, these are older men, often with brand new gear, who appear to be either NCOs or officers and who are clearly very highly motivated.

Finally, the Ukies are lead by corrupt and incompetent generals, imagine Pavel Grachev, but even worse. The reports that the fighting Ukies absolutely hate and despise their commanders (not the direct commander, but the top brass, the generals) are all over the social media. On the other hand, you have folks like Strelov, Samurai, Motorola, Kedr, Khodakovskii and others of clearly are both very experienced and very talented. And, again, this is my personal opinion, but there is no doubt in my mind that these local commanders not only have all sorts of, shall way say, "advisers" from the Russia, but that the Russian military supports the Novorussians with intelligence and expertise (who do you guess was the first to detect the envelopment manover attempted by the Ukies along the Russian border?).

So this is in no way the fault of the Ukrainian foot solider who is, by all accounts, courageous, extremely strong willed and who will execute his mission in the toughest conditions. Just look at how long the poor Ukrainian soldiers in the Southern Cauldron have been resisting under absolutely nightmarish conditions! But in these circumstances the Ukies don't stand a chance, and even though they do have an advantage in the open field by the sheer number of artillery, tanks and aircraft, as soon as they get into closer combat the Novorussians make minced meat out of them.

The true figures are hidden by the junta

Remember this: if Novorussia has something like 6,5 million people, the entire Ukraine has somewhere 40 million people. So what does the junta do? They spread out the casualties. The Ukies are now conducting their THIRD partial mobilization (penalty for refusing to serve: 5 years in jail). They are taking young men as cannon fodder form all over the Ukraine, from Lvov to Vinnitsa to Chernigov and they send them to Novorussia to get butchered by an army and population which fights with the energy of despair and which fights on its own land.

This might shock you and I will get a lot of nasty comments for saying this, but I personally think that the Ukie casualty figures are grossly UNDER-estimated and that when this horrible civil war comes to and end and this issue is professionally investigated we will find that the real figures of killed Ukrainians will be way higher than even the highest figures quoted today.

I think that as it typically the case in a dictatorship, the fact that the 5 state owned TV stations say exactly the same nonsense does not prevent the other information from seeping in in all sorts of creative manners: the Internet, of course, but also relatives abroad, the Russian media, leaks from the government structures, etc. And then you have the number of neighbours who are being told that they son "died like a hero for his country" (and, typically, that his body was not recovered) who then talk to you in the evenings, around a kitchen table, when nobody is around. So for all the Ukie official propaganda the poor women on the video above are absolutely terrified that if they military is allowed to run a conscription locally their sons and husbands will also "died a hero's death". Hence their desperate rage.

Us and them?

This is a truism, but I will say this again here: the vast majority of the soldiers fighting against Novorussians are Russian themselves, in the sense that they speak Russian, they are not Nazis at all and they are not the crazy Euromaidanites who started all this shit - they are simple country or small town folks who watched it all on the TV. Sure, they probably hated Yanukovich, but no more than they hated Timoshenko or Yushchenko, and while they feel Ukrainian that does not mean that they have this satanic russophobia so typical of the real Ukie Nazis. Not even most of the National Guard are hardened "Ukie Interahamwe". That scum is mostly found in the deathsquads of Kolomoiskii and Liashko. In those units you truly have the scum of the earth, pathologically evil sickos who will crucify babies and strangle pregnant women with a telephone cord. This is not a typical Ukrainian thing, by the way, you will find a minority of such sociopaths in any country and society. The difference is that in a civilized and normal society you typically find these types in jail, whereas in the current Ukraine turned Banderastan they are in positions of power. But I am absolutely sure that you could find the proportion of maniacal thugs amongst Russians, Belgians, Peruvians or even Eskimos. That is just a sad part of the human nature. The scary thing is that in Banderastan they get to rule the rest of society.

I take immense solace in the fact that Russians clearly understand that, even the Novorussians do. I just watched a video about 40+ Ukrainian border guards who were terribly shot up by the Novorussians and who offered to surrender in exchnage for a safe passage to Russia. Not only did the Novorussians accept that, but they also fed them, treated their wounds (often terrible ones), then brought them across the border where the Russian military treated them again and then let them chose between staying in Russia or returning home (and risk being investigated by the Nazis for "desertion"). Those who wanted to return did so on Russian military aircraft.

A few commentators said that this was stupid on the Russian part. I categorically disagree. If these guys had been Kolomoiskii's thugs, then yes, it would have been stupid. But these were basically decent guys, used as canon fodder, in other words, victims. And I am proud that the Russians also understood that and acted with kindness and compassion towards them.

To those of you who believe that the Ukie Nazis might get such a sweet deal, I can reassure you - forget it. Russia is Russia and war is war. In Chechnia for example, when caught the Wahabis were given a 10-15 min one on one "interview" with a a few Paratrooper or Spetsaz NCOs which rapidly established their values as prisoners in an extremely unpleasant dialog for the Wahabi and then, unless the Russians thought they had a high value prisoner, they would be summarily executed and buried. I have no doubt whatsoever of what the Novorussians do when the catch a member of a Ukie death squad and I can assure you that they will not treat his wounds or allow him to survive longer than 30min max. But, again and again, the vast majority of the Ukies butchered today are not members of death squads and even though they are clearly fighting on the wrong side, they have very little choice and they are therefore also first and foremost victims who deserve our compassion.

The Ukrainian tragedy

The Russian word безобразие (bezobrazie) is often translated into English as ugliness, of deformity or even scandal or chaos. But that is not a very good rendering of its meaning. Bezobrazie is composed of the prefix "bez" which means "without" and then the word "obraz" which means "image" or "type" or even "character". What bez-obraz-ie means the "absence of a coherent image" or, literally, the "loss of your own identity". This is what happened to the Ukrainian people, they lost their own real identity and they let it be replaced by a ugly, xenophobic, murderous and hate-filled "mask" of sorts, which is not at all what the real Ukrainian culture used to be. This is immensely sad, and I want to hope that this horror can be healed. But in the meantime, Russians need to make sure that they do now allow themselves to be changed by this war, they need to make sure that the Russian people retain their own spiritual and cultural "obraz" in the sense of "identity". This is also one crucially important reason why they should continue to treat the Ukie soldiers with compassion and kindness: Russian compassion can be a powerful weapon against Ukie hatred and maybe even an impulse for the Ukrainian people to recover their true identity.


The Saker


Who Benefits from the downing of #MH17?






Donbass Situation Report, July 27, 2014


Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJounal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov


Briefing about the situations at the front in the DPR [Donetsk People’s Republic] and the LPR [Lugansk People’s Republic] as July 27, 2014.
LPR

The situation near Lugansk remains stable. The frontlines to the north of the city have stabilized, and the offensive there has petered off. The attempts to punch through a corridor to the airport through Aleksandrovka have fallen through, and here the enemy is engaged in regrouping its forces. Fighting has gradually been reduced to systematic artillery shelling and the activities of the enemy’s saboteur groups that seep into Lugansk, and which the Militia engages commensurately with their available forces. The intensity of airstrikes has declined due to the enemy’s losses and the strengthening of the Militia’s air defences.

Battles in the area of the Lugansk airport and to the southwest of the city also show a tendency toward becoming positional in nature. Due to a lack of forces, the sides have been unable to achieve any significant advancement. The frontlines have also stabilized in the area of Lutugino, where the Militia has been able to isolate a breakthrough by the enemy armoured forces.

The hole on the border is now confidently controlled by the Militia, and the Junta has lost the ability to undertake a serious offensive to close it off. Control over Izvarino and Krasnodon ensures guaranteed deliveries of cargo at least as far as Lugansk.

In the area of Alchevsk and Stakhanov, the Militia, having retreated from the Lisichansk Protrusion, continues to fortify its positions, waiting for the Junta to regroup, pull up its artillery and undertake an offensive with the forces that it will have been able to concentrate there.

In general, the situation, even if not rosy, is quite stable – as a result of a month of offensive actions on the territory of LPR, the enemy can only claim the severance of the Lisichansk Protrusion to its credit.
DPR

The operational situation in the southern cauldron has not changed. The Junta grouping, composed of the remnants of the three brigades [the 27th, the 72nd and the 29th], continues to remain there, suffering considerable losses from the Militia’s fire. The last thread near the “Marinovka” border-crossing checkpoint had been cut off yesterday.

All of Poroshenko’s claims that the encircled forces are being supplied with food and ammunitions are simply a bunch of common lies; their supply can only be effected via air, and even then – with great risk to the aircraft airdropping cargo on parachutes. Understandably, there is no talk about supplying the troops with ammunition and fuel for the armoured vehicles. Essentially, the grouping now represents a mass of infantry with the still-battle-worthy tanks and BMP dug in. There is also clear ammunition famine for the cannon and the rocket artillery.

In general, conditions continue to worsen for the surrounded troops, with a part of the soldiers running away and fleeing to Russia. In the occupied Ukraine this has been fueling a public hysteria. Only the lack of forces is preventing the Militia from delivering the Junta troops from their torment.

In the area of Saur-Mogila and Amvorsievka, the frontlines have long had all the characteristics of positional fighting, with activity being demonstrated through artillery strikes and actions of Saboteur-Reconnaissance Groups (“SRG”). The dominant position of Saur-Mogila and the constant shelling of Amvrosievka are preventing the Junta from gathering with impunity its forces for a de-blockading attack aimed at relieving the southern grouping. All the latest successes of the Junta in this area are connected exclusively with the actions of its SRGs.

The road to Donetsk through Antratsit and Torez is firmly controlled by the Militia. In the event that control over the highway passing through Debaltsevo is lost, it the Antratsit/Torez road that will become the key transportation artery of the DPR until the time when the southern grouping is finished off and supply channels through the border-crossing checkpoints in the south of the DPR are established.

In the area of Debaltsevo, the Junta continues to conduct massive attacks aimed at taking control of this major transportation junction that has strategic importance. Yesterday evening the Junta reported taking over Debaltsevo, when, in reality, it simply entered the city under cover of massive artillery shelling, following which heavy street battles began there, leading to large losses on both sides. This morning, the fighting in Debaltsevo continued.

The loss of Debaltsevo will seriously complicate the situation in the DPR, which effectively will be left hanging by one supply thread. We should expect the Militia to redeploy its reserves for a counterattack. Essentially, the section between Gorlovka and Alchevsk is the only part of the front where the Junta firmly maintains the initiative and is conducting large scale offensive actions with decisive goals. On most of the remaining sections of the front of the DPR and the LPR, the offensive that began on July 1, 2014 has come to a halt or become mired in a positional front.

The enemy’s advancement toward Debaltsevo has led to Gorlovka becoming partially encircled from the northeastern direction, with the city ending up operationally surrounded due to a number of the roads being cut off by enemy SRGs and the infiltrating mechanized infantry. The main forces of the Militia have been pushed pack into the city and are preparaing for street battles.

In Donetsk itself, the Junta offensive is bogged down on the outskirts of the city. Heavy fighting in the area of the Peski settlement has led to an full stop of the direct offensive against the city. The Junta was forced to adopt the “Slavyansk” tactics, comprised of massive artillery shelling of residential districts followed by a slow advance with tanks protected by weak infantry cover. The crisis of the first days of the assault on Donetsk (when the Miltia was practically forced into the urban areas) at this time has been overcome, and the Militia is preparing for new battles in the suburbs.

In the general, the situation here remains very difficult. In the event Debaltsevo is lost and Gorlovka is completely encircled, Donetsk will end up semi-surrounded, which, given the enemy’s overall superiority in numbers, will create additional opportunities for the Junta to conduct strikes using the internal communications network that spreads from Debaltsevo into the interiors of the DPR and the LPR.

When we will be tallying up the results of the offensive that began on July 1, 2014, the key for evaluating it will be the outcomes of the battles for Gorlovka, Debaltsevo and in the Southern Cauldron.

According to the information from our person in Donetsk:

As of yesterday, everything was fine with Strelkov personally. Both he and his assistant used to write on the well-known forum. The reasons for the cessation of these briefings are military in nature.

Questions again arose with respect to Khodakovskiy (and to him) following his interview to Reuters, where he blurted something about “BUKs” in LPR.

Our person (he no longer just wields a camera, but now also carries an automatic rifle) has informed us that, during a raid with a Militia SRG into the enemy’s rear, one of the Militia groups from Battalion Vostok prevented them from destroying the positions of one of the enemy mortar batteries. No explanations were provided – they made their objections clear with weapons. There is also information that a group of Vostok militiamen, as well as some Cossacks, has been dealing in racketeering in Donetsk instead of fighting the war. These matters now are being dealt with and investigated at the level of Borodai-Atjunfeev.

Apart from uniforms and equipment and light arms, militiamen also complain that they lack artillery and MLRS, most of which is concentrated in LPR and on the borders of the Southern Cauldron. There are few artillery systems near Gorlovka, Debaltsevo, Alchevsk, and Stakhanov, and, as a result, it has been very difficult to repel the attacks by the numerically superior Junta forces. Nevertheless, and despite the difficult situation, the morale of the visited units is quite high.


Overall, the military construction is gaining momentum, while state building is still lagging. Part of the necessary organizational structures still exist mostly as virtual constructs.

From Vladimir Suchan

Euromaidan is tweeting the Kiev junta's military plan, which does correspond to the offensive's footprint, now almost too obvious:




Via Vladimir Suchan on Facebook

NATO invasion/intervention in Ukraine underway, as of already?

"Kolomoisky broadcasts: NATO troops already in Kharkov.

Nico Geerts, Brigadier General, Commander of a brigade of the Netherlands airmobile 11. Ordered the immediate collection of 1000 soldiers and sending in Eastern Ukraine for weeks. Orders placed today at 8-0000, time to collect 12:00.

When asked about how they will protect the experts working for Boeing, without weapons, responded that this is not a problem and the weapon will be delivered within a few hours. Including Apache helicopters group drums.

The Dutch military will travel to Ukraine on a regular NATO transport aircraft Lockheed c-130 Hercules from the airport in Eindhoven.

They will be joined by Australian SASR special forces already in Europe, British-based Marines in Hereford. In the next few hours, they will land in Ukraine.

Special forces of the two countries will accompany the helicopters, a CH-47 Chinook.

I think they've arrived in Kharkov.

In other words, under the guise of NATO experts introduced to Ukraine's troops. For the sake of the Americans, and were ordered to destroy the airliner with passengers. (Translated by Bing)"


Коломойский вещает:

Войска НАТО уже в Харькове.

Nico Geerts бригадный генерал, командир 11 аэромобильной бригады Нидерландов. Отдал приказ о срочном сборе 1000 военнослужащих, и отправке в Восточную Украину на несколько недель. Приказ отдан вчера в 8-00, время на сбор 12 часов.

На вопрос, о том что они будут охранять экспертов, работающих по Боингу, без оружия, ответил, что это не проблема и оружие будет доставлено в течении нескольких часов. В том числе ударные группы вертолетов Apache.

Голландские военные отправятся на Украину на штатном транспортном самолете НАТО – Lockheed c-130 Hercules из аэропорта в Ейндховене.

К ним присоединится австралийский спецназ SASR уже находящийся в Европе, на базе английской морской пехоты в Херефорде. Они в ближайшие часы высадятся в Украине..

Спецназовцев двух стран будет сопровождать, вертолеты CH-47 Chinook.
Думаю, они уже прилетели в Харьков.


Иными словами, под предлогом охраны экспертов, НАТО вводит на Украину войска. Ради этого американцы и отдали приказ уничтожить лайнер с пассажирами.

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