tropical cyclone forming in the Pacific is looking less likely to
make a direct hit on New Zealand early next week, but dangerous beach
conditions can be expected on the eastern coasts of the North Island,
WeatherWatch head weather analyst Philip Duncan says.
up to three or four metres high could pound the coastlines of the
upper North Island in Northland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty,
Gisborne and Hawke's Bay on Monday and Tuesday, Mr Duncan said.
lows north of New Zealand appear to be becoming cyclones, with one --
between Vanuatu and Fiji -- looking likely to become a severe storm.
The second, smaller low could slide behind the larger low, he said.
centre of what we've dubbed Low 1, directly north of NZ will likely
come within 800 kilometres of northern New Zealand, based on various
models today and bring very dangerous beach conditions.
2 may move into the upper North Island with heavy rain at the same
time, making it feel like one system bringing rough seas and tropical
a chance we may just get some humidity, wind and downpours rather
than severe weather ... it will depend on the size of the high to the
east of the North Island, as it will directly affect how much wet
weather can move into New Zealand and how much gets blocked from
tracking southwards towards us."
larger low was turning into a tropical storm this morning, which
meant it would probably be given a name today. Because it is in
Fiji's area of responsibility, authorities in that nation will name
it. Winston is the next name on their list, Mr Duncan said.
expected the low would form a tropical cyclone in the next day or
models yesterday showed the weather system was likely to strike the
North Island on Monday and Tuesday next week, but this morning the
chance of a direct hit had been reduced to 40 per cent, he said.
that was no reason for complacency.
map for Monday shows the low further to the north - and the high to
the east pushing back against it - stopping it from reaching the
North Island effectively. Image / WeatherWatch
big message is while there's complete uncertainty whether the centre
of the low will hit New Zealand directly, there's not much of a
question that it will bring down dangerous beach conditions for the
ex-tropical cyclones that reached New Zealand took lives on the water
or at the beach, rather than on land, Mr Duncan said.
Civil Defence Waikato have taken a fun approach to informing Facebook
followers of the situation.
launched a competition to name the cyclone.
not a cyclone yet, and hopefully it doesn't become one. If it does,
what name would you like it to have? Cyclone Sharon? Cyclone Garry?
Tell us what you want it to be called and you could win one of three
'Calm Your Farm' mugs!," they wrote.
than 130 names had been suggested by 8.45am, many from parents, such
as Katy Poucher.
wrote: "Cyclone Anneliys, she's a 5 yr old with three big bros
she runs rings a around ... till she runs out of puff. I NEED a calm
your farm mug..."
Duncan said the competition was a great way to alert people in a fun