The question of Iranian involvement in Syria

The western media has been full of Iranian deployment of troops in Syria, as in this article from the Guardian.

However, at least according to the official Iranian media Tehran has not made up its mind

Iran ramps up troop deployment in Syria in run-up to ‘anti-rebel offensive’

Iran’s role in war has been relatively low-key so far, but deployment and dispatch of famous commander reinforce perception of new stage in support for Assad

Iran is escalating its role in the war in Syria, sending hundreds of men from its elite forces to support Bashar al-Assad and dispatching its most celebrated Revolutionary Guards commander to an area where an anti-rebel offensive is expected shortly.

Arab diplomats and analysts said on Wednesday that Iran had already sent hundreds of troops to northern and central Syria, after reports that up to 2,000 are to be deployed alongside fighters from Tehran’s Lebanese ally Hezbollah and foreign Shia militia units under the cover of Russian airstrikes.

Iran troops to join Syria war, Russia bombs group trained by CIA

Hundreds of Iranian troops have arrived in Syria to join a major ground offensive in support of President Bashar al-Assad's government, Lebanese sources said on Thursday, a sign the civil war is turning still more regional and global in scope.

Senior MP: Iran Ready to Send Troops to Syria if Requested

Farsnews,

15 October, 2015

TEHRAN (FNA)- A senior Iranian lawmaker announced that Tehran will consider sending troops to Syria upon Damascus request.

Speaking in the Syrian capital Damascus, Chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Alaeddin Boroujerdi said any such a request will be discussed at the Iranian parliament.

He added that the Syrian government should be part of any plan to end the conflict ravaging the country, reaffirming Iran’s support for Syria in its fight against terrorist groups.

Boroujerdi said Iran has sent military aid to Syria and Iraq following requests from their governments, and added that the failure of the US-led attacks on ISIL led to the formation of the anti-terror coalition involving Syria, Iran, Russia, and Iraq.

"We have delivered arms supplies to Syria in order to fight terrorism," he said.

Boroujerdi said the foreign plots against Syria is doomed to failure and any political solution to the crisis in the Arab country should be in coordination with Syrian government

"Whoever wants to fight terrorism he should join our coalition and combating terrorism is an international affair and needs an international agreement," he underlined.

In relevant remarks on Wednesday, Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan stressed that the country's military experts and advisors are taking preparatory actions that will end up in the complete annihilation of the Takfiri groups, including the ISIL terrorists, in Syria.

Dehqan made the remarks in a ceremony in Tehran to commemorate martyrdom of IRGC Commander Brigadier General Hossein Hamadani, who was killed in Northern Syria last Thursday.

He referred to the new joint operations plan of Iran, Syria, Iraq and Russia to destroy the ISIL, and said, "At present, we are witnessing start of new developments in Syria, thanks to the efforts and measures adopted by martyr Hamadani."

"God willing, these developments will pave the ground for the full annihilation of the Takfiri groups," Dehqan said.

General Hamadani was killed in Northern Syria last Thursday, while providing military counseling services to the Syrian forces in their fight against the Takfiri terrorists.

"Brigadier General Hamadani was martyred during an attack by the ISIL Takfiri terrorists in the outskirts of the city of Aleppo while fulfilling his duty as military advisor and defending the holy Shiite shrines in the country," the IRGC said in a statement on Friday.

General Hamadani was in Syria to render military advice to the Syrian army and popular forces in their fight against the ISIL terrorists in the Arab country.

In relevant remarks on Monday, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari underlined that the terrorist groups in Syria will sustain great losses in coming days.

"We will witness great victories in Syria in the next few days," Jafari said.

Noting that the security of Western Asia, including Iran, is dependent on Syria and the resistance front, he said, "We should support this front with all our power."

Jafari also warned that the "arrogant powers in the region are after overthrowing the ruling system in Syria to extend their influence in the Muslim states".

Iran: Chinese and Iranian naval leaders meet to discuss defence ties

International Military Review – Syria, Oct. 15, 2015: Iran’s Attitude

South Front

General Suleimani Oversees the Large-Scale Offensive in Southern Aleppo

al-Masdar News

The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s elite “Quds Brigades” – Major General Qassim Suleimani – has reportedly traveled from the Latakia Governorate’s northeastern countryside to the Al-Safeera District of southern Aleppo in order to observe the first phase of the large-scale offensive in the Azzan Mountains.

Major General Suleimani did not travel alone to Aleppo – he was escorted by a large convoy of armored vehicles that were largely made up of Iraqi Shi’i militiamen; these aforementioned fighters have been tasked with carrying out the planned offensives around the Aleppo Governorate’s countryside.

According to a senior officer from the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) inside the provincial capital of the Latakia Governorate, Major General Suleimani traveled to Syria on Monday night to meet with the Iranian and Russian military advisors overseeing the large-scale operations around the Aleppo Governorate’s rural terrain.

The source further added that Major General Suleimani did not travel to Syria by himself; instead, he was joined by six other senior military officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Recently, western publications have reported on the alleged arrival of Iranian soldiers to the Syrian port-city of Tartous; however, sources close to Al-Masdar News have confirmed this news to be incorrect – they added that no Iranian reinforcements have been sent to Syria in three months.

This article asks questions about the relationship between Tehran and Moscow

Does Iran even want Russia in Syria?

al-Monitor,

15 October, 2015

TEHRAN, Iran — The already complex situations in Iraq and Syria have become more complicated following the announcement that an intelligence sharing command base has been formed by Iran, Russia, Syria and Iraq. The base, which is slated to be set up in Baghdad, is geared to enhance collaboration in the fight against the Islamic State (IS).

News of the initiative was originally reported by the Russian news agency Sputnik. It quoted a Russian diplomatic source as saying, “This shared intelligence base will be formed by the representatives of the chiefs of joint military staff of each of these four countries. … The first goal of the base is to gather intelligence regarding the region in the framework of fighting against this terrorist group. After the data is collected, it will be analyzed and will eventually be forwarded to the related organizations in the armed forces of each of these countries.” The Russian source added that “the command of this base will rotate every three months between the member states and the first rotating president will be Iraq.” Russia's official representative to the base, Sergei Kuralenko, further stated that “all four countries will have equal responsibilities in coordinating the fight against [IS]. The responsibilities of each side will be determined by a special charter, which will be soon adopted.”

Although Russian media and Russian officials have been very clear and detailed about the base, it appears that Iranian officials still have their doubts. For example, the Iranian ambassador to Iraq, Hassan Danaeifar, responded to the news by saying, “This is a rumor! It is not as serious as it sounds. Iran has its own plans for fighting against Daesh [IS] in Iraq and Syria. Iran’s plans include logistic, consultation and training, and we are seriously following up on them. We have our own plans and we are depending on those.” In addition, during his recent trip to New York, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told a gathering of media professionals, “[Russian President] Mr. Putin had personally asked me to form a strategic coalition with him against terrorism in Syria. However, there is no strategic coalition between Tehran and Moscow.”

In the meantime, it appears that Iraqi officials are most eager about the base. The Iraqi prime minister's spokesman, Saad al-Hadithi, told French media that “the intelligence sharing base which is about to be formed is a joint coordination committee between the four countries mentioned. Security issues will determine when this committee will start to function.”

Of note, the United States has not welcomed the formation of this military intelligence collaboration. US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work reacted to news of the joint base by saying, “We were caught by surprise that Iraq entered into this agreement with Syria and Iran and Russia. Obviously, we are not going to share intelligence with either Syria or Russia or Iran. So we are in the process of working to try to find out exactly what Iraq has said. We're not going to provide any classified information to help those actors on the battlefield.”

During the past weeks, Russia has been flexing its muscles in the Middle East. It has sent dozens of fighter aircraft, bombers, tanks, artilleries and commando forces to Syria in order to fight the groups opposed to the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Moscow’s clear desire to increase its military presence in Syria and the region shows that Putin is looking for a new regional order. Russia has already been active in the region, for example, by providing Sukhoi fighters to Iraq, providing political and military support for Syria, as well as maintaining a naval presence in the Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartus. However, Russia’s recent actions show that Moscow is determined to replace Iran and Hezbollah and be the new power in charge of military operations in Iraq and Syria. In parallel, it appears that the Russian government is alarmed about Assad staying in power and is thus pursuing the idea of an Alawite state in Syria’s coastal region. Mindful of the latter, it is evident that the formation of the joint intelligence base, as well as Russia’s direct military presence in Syria, will create multiple problems for Iran.

First, the sharing intelligence and military data can result in Moscow gaining more information regarding the military capabilities of Hezbollah. Considering Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s silence and implied consent regarding Russia’s interference in Syria, it is possible that, in the future, Israel can have better access to confidential information regarding Iran and Hezbollah’s military capabilities via Russia.

Second, Iran and Hezbollah have so far paid the highest military and security price in Syria. Russia’s strong presence in the country can easily weaken the strong positions of Iran and Hezbollah, and thus weaken Tehran’s position in future political negotiations on the future of Syria.

Third, Iran has already provided intelligence support to both Iraq and Syria. It has been providing Human Intelligence (HUMINT) and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) for these countries using unmanned aerial vehicles and intelligence forces. Indeed, it should not be forgotten that there is a history of intelligence and security collaboration between Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. These countries have already, separately from one another, signed military and security collaboration agreements.

Finally, Russia’s reassuring of Israel regarding the new developments in the battlefields in Iraq and Syria makes the situation more complicated.

It thus appears that Iran believes that the potential disadvantages of Russia’s involvement are greater than its advantages. It is against the backdrop of the latter that one may view reports that “hundreds of Iranian military forces have entered Syria in order to perform ground operations inside that country.”

In conclusion, based on available data, it appears that Iran is naturally not willing to concede its supreme positions in Iraq and Syria to another country. However, Tehran will welcome and support Russia’s desire to battle terrorism in the region.

Abbas Qaidaari is an Iranian international security and defense policy analyst. Twitter: @abbasqaidaari

Russia, Iran Begin "Promised" Assault On Syria's Largest City In Final Bid To Restore Assad

Zero Hedge,

16 October, 2015

Earlier this week, we noted that Iran had reportedly sent “thousands” of troops to Syria in preparation for an offensive aimed at retaking the city of Aleppo. 

With a population of more than 2 million, Aleppo was Syria’s largest city prior to the war and it’s now run by a hodgepodge of rebels and militants including al-Qaeda, the Free Syrian Army, and ISIS. 

To get an idea of the effect the war has had on the city, have a look at the following before and after nighttime light emissions images:

The battle is also notable for the scale of Iran’s involvement. Between Hezbollah and Iranian forces, the battle for Aleppo is shaping up to be the largest ground operation orchestrated by Tehran to date. 

Here’s more, via Reuters: 

Syrian troops backed by Hezbollah and Iranian fighters launched an offensive south of Aleppo on Friday, expanding their counter-attack against rebels across western Syria with support from Russian air strikes.

Aleppo, a commercial and industrial hub near the border with Turkey, was Syria's largest city before its four-year civil war, which grew out of protests against Assad's rule.

Control of the city, still home to two million people, is divided between the government and rebels.

"This is the promised battle," a senior government military source said of the offensive backed by hundreds of Hezbollah and Iranian forces which he said had made some gains on the ground.

It was the first time Iranian fighters had taken part on such a scale in the Syrian conflict, he said, although their numbers were modest compared to the army force. "The main core is the Syrian army," the source said. 

Hezbollah, which has supported Assad in several battles during the civil war, said the army was carrying out a "broad military operation" with support from Russian and Syrian jets. It made no mention of Hezbollah fighters in its brief statement.

Two senior regional sources told Reuters this week that Iran has sent thousands of troops to Syria to bolster an offensive underway in Hama province and ahead of the Aleppo attack.

And a bit more from AFP:

Russian air cover is backing offensives by Syria's army and allied militias in the central provinces of Homs and Hama, as well as Aleppo in the north and Latakia along the coast.

 

On Friday, the Syrian army pushed south from the provincial capital Aleppo city, where control is divided between regime and rebels forces, as Russian air strikes pounded the villages of Al-Hader and Khan Tuman and nearby localities.

 

"The Syrian army started a new front on Friday and advanced to take control of the villages of Abteen and Kaddar" about 15 kilometres (12 miles) south of Aleppo city, said Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman. 

He said "dozens" of Russian aerial attacks in the past 24 hours had struck the area, which is controlled by a patchwork of groups including rebels, Islamist fighters and Al-Qaeda's Syria affiliate, Al-Nusra Front.

Note also that Aleppo is near the so-called "anti-ISIS" zone that the US and Turkey humorously proposed to create a few months back, which means that Iran, supported by Russian air power, is now conducting an all-out ground assault very near territory Turkey likes to think it effectively patrols (if not controls). 

But the real key here, is this (again from Reuters): "The assault means the army is now pressing insurgents on several fronts near Syria's main cities in the west, control of which would secure President Bashar al-Assad's hold on power even if the east of the country is still held by Islamic State."

In other words, if Iran and Russia manage to retake Aleppo (and you know they will because remember, thanks to Hezbollah, this isn't a team that's going to be confused by the vagaries of urban warfare), Assad's rule is restored.

Just like that. 

From there, the situation would morph and what you would have is a kind of Wild West scenario, only in Syria "West" would mean "East" and Assad, Russia, and Iran, having secured most of the critical cities and territory, would be free to simply mount up and push east on a kind of search and destroy mission. 

So apparently, the US and its regional allies in Riyadh and Doha have a couple of weeks to figure out what to do here or else this is going to be over and suddenly, Washington will find itself in the awkward position of having to negotiate for a transition away from an Assad government that has been fully restored.