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Guy McPherson has updated his climate change summary HERE
El Nino 2015-16 Conditions Update (Oct 19 2015)
El Nino 2015-16 Conditions Update (Oct 19 2015)
New
Zealand is in the grip of an El Nino weather pattern - nearly as
strong as the "super El Nino" which ravaged the West Coast
in 1997-98.
20
October, 2015
The
current El Nino could already be classed as "strong" and
could bring more rain than usual to the Coast over the coming three
months, said NIWA principal climate scientist Dr Brett Mullan.
Scientists
used a variety of information to determine how strong an El Nino was,
he said. Data showed the current El Nino had strengthened and was now
ranked nearly as highly as the "super El Ninos" of 1982-83
and 1997-98.
The
consequences of an El Nino for New Zealand were less predictable than
other areas, but NIWA expected a high likelihood of stronger than
normal westerlies during summer, Dr Mullan said.
There
was above average rainfall on the West Coast during the 1982-83 and
1997-98 summers. NIWA data showed some areas of the Coast received
around 180 per cent of their normal rainfall during the 1997-98
summer.
Federated
Farmers national board member and West Coast dairy farmer Katie Milne
said farmers, the group most adversely affected by El Ninos, wouldn't
know what the current El Nino had in store until it actually
happened.
"If
it moves 50 miles north or south... it could be quite different for
us than the previous one."
However,
it was crucial for farmers to be prepared for the worst -- putting
their heads in the sand was not a good approach, she said.
"One
of the things I've said to people is, if you're new to an area and
don't know what to expect, try and get hold of someone who's been
through one."
Farmers
might have to stand their cows off more frequently than in previous
years. It was worth doing, she said.
"It's
a little bit of uncomfortableness for the cows at the time, but it's
a lot more uncomfortable if you go back in your next grazing round
and there's 50 per cent less grass there than what you thought
because they pugged it."
Some
farmers might also be forced to make the decision to cull cows early,
and some might move to once-a-day milking.
"We
have all learnt from the previous experiences, and it is about
protecting your pasture as much as you can. It might not be fun but
it's manageable."
Mental
wellbeing
During
the 1997-98 El Nino, farming communities held frequent get-togethers
to keep up morale.
Ms
Milne encouraged farmers to attend discussion groups and talk through
their problems with other farmers. It was at such events farmers
realised they weren't alone, she said.
"Everyone's
in the same pile of poo."
If
this El Nino was anything like it was in 1997-98, sunshine would be
hard to come by, she said.
"The
fine days weren't even that fine, they were just cloudy."
People
got essential vitamins from exposure to the sun. "You're
affected chemically and you don't even know you are."
In
1997-98, some Coast farmers would drive over one of the passes to
Canterbury for a dose of sunshine, Ms Milne said. They would take a
sandwich, sit in the sun for a couple of hours then drive back.
The
rate of dairy conversions in Canterbury could also have a negative
effect on Coast farmers this El Nino. "Last time we whipped over
and got hay and things like that to feed the cows because there
wasn't as much grass... the availability of extra feed and grazing is
certainly down on what it was."
The
Ministry for Primary Industries has published a brochure containing
practical advice for farmers and growers on how to prepare for El
Nino conditions.
Primary
Industries minister Nathan Guy said it focused mostly on farming in
dry conditions.
"This
[El Nino] would not be good for those on the east coast of the South
Island who have had a very dry 12 months already and are still
officially in drought. That's why it is important to plan and start
preparing now."
Western Australia: Harvest
blow as hailstorm ruins crops
Farmers
in the south-east of WA’s Wheatbelt are counting the cost after a
severe and unexpected thunderstorm devastated crops just days before
the harvest was to begin.
19
October, 2015
WA’s
peak farmers lobby estimated Saturday night’s hailstorm, which
swept down from Newdegate, about 400km south-east of Perth, to
Ravensthorpe near the coast, caused damage estimated at $20 million
to $30 million.
Some
farmers lost up to 70 per cent of their crops.
The
event comes as a blow to farmers as what is expected to be a bumper
harvest gets under way, though it is understood most of those
affected will have insurance for storm damage.
After
a record haul of 15.1 million tonnes last summer, this year’s
harvest is tipped to come in only slightly under that figure and
generate billions of dollars for the agricultural sector.
Bob
Iffla, who runs a major sheep and cropping farm near Newdegate, said
the hailstorm was one of the worst he had seen and ruined about
1200ha — or 10 per cent — of his crop.
Upfront
losses would be about $850,000, he said.
Mr
Iffla said the storm flattened crops, tore roofs from outbuildings,
stripped trees and even left birds with broken wings scattered around
his paddocks.
“It’s
been a huge thunderstorm,” Mr Iffla said.
“It’s
been something that I don’t think the State’s has had too often
before as bad as this.”
Fellow
Newdegate farmer Bryce Sinclair said he had lost about 20 per cent of
his crop.
Hail
flattened entire paddocks of his wheat, barley and canola.
The
29-year-old said though his crops were mostly covered by insurance,
the damage would set him back next year.
It
would be harder to replant affected paddocks and recover valuable
seed.
“It’s
an issue for next year but it’s bloody annoying for us this year,”
Mr Sinclair said.
“We
got a fairly good fizzling, that’s for sure.”
WAFarmers
senior vicepresident Tony York said it was not uncommon for areas of
the Wheatbelt to be hit by damaging thunderstorms at this time of
year.
But he said farmers were still on track to record a sizeable harvest of between 13.5 and 14 million tonnes — underpinned by strong prices — after a good growing season.
Indonesian
fires cannot be put out, says Malaysian minister, with rainy season
seen as only saviour
International
efforts to douse raging Indonesia fires will fail and South-East Asia
could face several more weeks of choking smoke until the rainy season
starts, Malaysia's environment minister has warned.
ABC,
20
October, 2015
"Unless
there is rain, there is no way human intervention can put out the
fires," said natural resources and environment minister Wan
Junaidi Tuanku Jaafar on the sidelines of Malaysia's parliament
session, warning that the blazes were spread across "huge areas"
of Indonesia.
Even
the multi-nation effort now under way "is not enough to put out
the fires", he dded.
Indonesia
has revoked the land licences of PT Mega Alam Sentosa and state-owned
PT Dyera Hutan Lestari, the director-general for law enforcement at
the forestry ministry, Rasio Rido Sani, told reporters late on
Monday.
Both
firms could not be reached for comment.
Last
month, Indonesia ordered four companies to suspend operations for
allegedly causing forest fires.
Facing
growing pressure, Indonesia
earlier this month agreed to accept international help,
including six aircraft from Singapore, Malaysia and Australia.
They
are part of the deployment of 32 water-bombing planes and
helicopters, assisting the more than 22,000 personnel on the ground.
Indonesia
had failed for weeks to douse the annual fires from slash-and-burn
farming that shrouds
angry neighbours Malaysia and Singapore.
PHOTO Malaysia's
landmark buildings in Kuala Lumpur are shrouded by haze caused by
forest fires in neighbouring Indonesia.AFP:
MANAN VATSYAYANA
Malaysia
was forced once again to close schools in several areas on Monday due
to unhealthy air, and Mr Jaafar said the crisis could continue for
another month.
"We
hope the rains will come in mid-November. It will be able to put out
the fires," he said.
On
Friday, Indonesia launched its largest firefighting assault yet, with
dozens of planes and thousands of troops battling the illegally
started agricultural and forest fires in its territory on the large
islands of Sumatra and Borneo.
Last Wednesday saw largest number of fires in two years
The
fires and resulting region-wide haze are an annual dry-season
problem, but experts
warn the current outbreak is on track to become the worst ever,
exacerbated by tinder-dry conditions from the El Nino weather
phenomenon.
On
the ground last Wednesday, NASA satellites detected 1,729 fire alerts
across Indonesia, more than any single day in the last two years.
The
acrid air has sparked health alerts, sent thousands to hospitals for
respiratory problems, and caused the cancellation of scores of
flights and some major international events across the region.
Indonesian
national disaster management agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho
also offered sobering comments, saying the fires were "yet to be
overcome".
Mr
Sutopo said satellite data indicated Indonesia now had more than
1,500 'hotspots', which are loosely defined as areas where fires are
either burning or where conditions are ripe for blazes to break out.
What's behind the haze?
Find out what is behind the choking smoke covering Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.
"The
actual number is higher as the satellite is not able to penetrate the
thickness of the haze," he said.
A
scientist at the Centre for International Forestry Research, Herry
Purnomo, said that hot spots had reached Papua, a region that usually
avoids widespread fires.
"It
is because people are opening new agriculture areas, like palm oil,"
he said.
Indonesian
president Joko Widodo has increased government efforts to tackle the
haze in recent weeks, making several visits to the worst-hit areas
and asking other countries for help, but apparently to little avail.
"We
all know that the burned areas are now widening beyond normal
conditions," Mr Widodo told reporters on Sunday.
Malaysia
enjoyed a brief spell of lowered haze last week, but the government —
which has repeatedly ordered school closures across wide areas as a
health precaution — did so again on Monday as skies again reverted
to the now-familiar soupy gray.
Schools
were closed in several states and in the capital Kuala Lumpur as
pollution levels climbed well into the "unhealthy" range
under the government's rating system.
Air
quality in Singapore, however, improved on Monday after "unhealthy"
levels over the weekend.
Typhoon
Koppu Pounds Philippines, Killing At Least 23
A
slow-motion disaster is playing out in the northern Philippines,
where thousands of residents still have days of life-threatening
rainfall ahead
19
October, 2015
.
At
least 23 people have died and six more are missing since the landfall
of Typhoon Koppu (Lando) in the Philippines Sunday morning, local
time, while flooding rains continue to lash parts of the country with
torrential downpours. Koppu was downgraded to a tropical storm late
Monday, but remains a deadly threat to the archipelago.
"As
expected, Koppu has stalled near Luzon in the northern Philippines,"
said weather.com meteorologist Chris
Dolce. "Although its winds will continue to weaken, heavy
rain will drench the region into at least Tuesday, leading to more
dangerous flooding and possible mudslides."
At
Least 23 Killed, Many Injured or Displaced
A
6-year-old girl died after falling into a creek in Bambang
municipality Sunday, according to the National Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management Council.
Additional fatalities included two
deaths due to cardiac arrest after landslides in Tinoc municipality,
two young men swept away by swift waters in Buguias and Tineg
municipalities and a woman who died from electrocution in Moncada
municipality.
One
individual was killed when a boat capsized near Surigao City, the
NDRRMC reported.
A
teenager was killed Sunday in suburban Quezon city after being pinned
by a fallen tree. Four others were injured in the incident and three
houses were damaged. A concrete wall collapsed in Subic town, killing
a 62-year-old woman and injuring her husband, according to Nigel
Lontoc of the Office of Civil Defense.
In
Casiguran, Aurora province, where the storm made landfall, virtually
all of the buildings and infrastructure sustained damage,
according to Rappler. Officials said two other nearby towns,
Dinalungan and Dilasag, have been cut off from the outside world, and
little is known about their condition.
According
to Latino Fox News, Nueva Ecija Gov. Aurelio Umali reported two
people drowned in the city of Palayan. They were found floating
in floodwaters, Inquirer.net reports.
Another
man was killed by a landslide Sunday when he went to check on his
farm in the mountain town of Bakud in Benguet province, according to
the Associated Press. Two other men drowned in Nueva Ecija, the
report dded.
Seven
others were
lost at sea, NBC News reported via Reuters. Those deaths occurred
in the central Philippines, which were not directly affected by the
storm, the AP said.
Lontoc
also stated that three fishermen who were missing at sea were rescued
off northern Bataan province, and three other missing people were
found in an evacuation camp in Aurora's Baler town.
The
AP reported that 65,000 villagers have been displaced in the
typhoon's path, including in towns prone to flash floods and
landslides.
According
to a tweet
from the Philippines Red Cross, a child was swept away and reported
missing in Nueva Vizcaya.
The National
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) is
asking those in need of rescue to tweet the hashtags #LandoPH or
#RescuePH along with their name, location and contact information for
assistance.
Flash
Flooding Threats
La
Union province was affected by heavy flooding after strong
waves, generated by Lando, damaged a seawall in San Fernando
City, GMA News Online said. Officials urged hundreds of residents
in Barangay Ilocanos to evacuate, with some families staying in
evacuation center.
Residents
of multiple low-lying towns in Pangasinan province were asked
to evacuate, as reports said the Agno River could flood in the
early hours of Tuesday, ABC-CBN News reported.
The
typhoon triggered head-high floods in 5 villages near Cabanatuan
City, Rappler
reports, prompting rescue operations in the early hours of
Monday, October 19. Red Cross Bravo team had rescued 64 people
in Barangay Sumakab since 3 a.m. Monday, and volunteers using boats
and bangkas continued to rescue residents as of Monday at 8 a.m. as
many families remained stranded in their homes.
Local
police and military officials worked Sunday to rescue those trapped
in flooded villages throughout some of the nation's hardest hit
provinces. Both Aurora and rice-growing province Nueva Ecija were
among those swamped by floodwaters.
The
flooding in Nueva Ecija forced residents onto their rooftops Sunday
afternoon, reports
ABS-CBN News. Certain areas were so inundated that rescuers were
unable to reach residents.
A
road in Valdefuente village, Cabanatuan City was
impassable except for loaders, firetrucks and military
rescue trucks as of 10 p.m. Sunday, according
to Rappler. Rescue vehicles were seen cutting through
the water throughout the night to reach hundreds of residents waiting
for rescue in flooded areas.
Two
hospitals, Premiere Medical Center and Eduardo L. Joson Memorial
Hospital, have been breached by flood waters and have been the target
of several rescue operations already, according
to Nueva Ecija provincial government employee
Bobby Balagtas.
Many
villages further down this road are under water, says Balagtas. Aduas
Central, Aduas Sur and Aduas Norte, in particular, experienced
head-high
floods, leaving many residents stranded on their roofs until help
arrived.
Residents
who sought shelter in evacuation centers have been cautioned
by disaster officials not to return to their homes yet. The large
amounts of rainwater accumulated in the mountains will not start
coming down into the lowlands until at least Tuesday afternoon, which
will likely cause more flooding in areas that have already been
inundated.
Though
it caused widespread damage, the rainfall from Typhoon Koppu provided
much needed water to several dams still suffering from the
effects of El NiƱo, according to a situation report from the United
Nations. The Angat Dam, which supplies a majority of Metro Manila's
water needs, saw an increase of 7.2 meters in its water level.
Crops
Lost to the Storm
In
areas where farming is a way of life, Koppu has been devastating for
crops. Vice Mayor Henry Velarde of Nueva Ecija's Jaen town was
briefed on the damage and told the AP via telephone that the
fields are in bad shape.
"Our
rice farms looked like it was ran over by a giant flat iron," he
said. "All the rice stalks were flattened in one direction."
Residents
were forced to flee the storm while leaving their poultry and other
farm animals behind, in many instances. Much of the area's rice
crops, which were expected to be harvested in a few weeks, have been
destroyed.
Erwin
Jacinto, a resident of Nueva Ecija's Santa Rosa town, told the AP
that his farmland has been reduced to "nothing but mud" as
Koppu continues to pound the area.
High
Winds, Downed Trees and Power Outages
There
have been power outages, downed trees and flattened crops in some of
the top rice-producing areas of the country, according to World
Vision teams in Luzon.
“We
woke up early this morning to strong rain and howling winds. Already
there are uprooted trees blocking roads,” said Joy Maluyo,
emergency communications officer for World Vision. “In farm fields,
the rice stalks are supposed to be ready for harvest next week.
Unfortunately now, they’re drowned in water. Farmers are worried
all their efforts are now wasted.”
The NDRRMC reported
complete power outages in 9 provinces, potentially affecting more
than nine million people - equal to nearly 10 percent of the entire
population of the Philippines and nearly 20 percent of the population
of Luzon.
The
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) sent out a severe
weather bulletin Saturday at 11 p.m local time. Fishers have
been advised not to venture past the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas,
as well as the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Residents in mountainous
and low-lying areas of the providences that received the Public Storm
Warning Signal (PSWS) have been alerted of possible flash floods and
landslides.
Province-wide
power outages were also
reported in Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya,
Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Apayao, and Kalinga.
CNN
Philippines tweeted that
high winds in the town of Baler had toppled trees and ripped the
roofs off several buildings early on Sunday morning. Floods and small
landslides made 25 roads and bridges impassable.
A
total of 2,225
passengers were stranded in 6 districts of Southern Tagalog
according to the Philippine Coast Guard as of noon local time on
Saturday. The weather bureau PAGASA had
placed Batangas under Signal No. 1 which
automatically canceled all trips of passenger vessels.
The
Philippines government announced Sunday evening that work in
government offices in Regions 1, 2, 3 and Cordillera Administrative
Region would be suspended on October 19, Monday as Typhoon Koppu
(Lando) continues to hover over northern Luzon, Inquirer.net
reported. Presidential spokesperson Edwin Lacierda said that
government personnel who are involved in the “delivery of basic and
health services, disaster and emergency response as well as other
vital services” are required to report to work on Monday.
Lacierda
said that the suspension of work in government offices in those
regions was implemented with the recommendation of the NDRRM.
According
to the Philippines’ Department of Social Welfare and Development
(DSWD), a total of approximately $226,146 USD in standby funds had
been made available as of Thursday. Also on hand were 120,383 family
food packs and approximately $2,561,786 USD worth of food and
non-food items for resource augmentation to local government units
that have been affected by the typhoon.
Typhoon Koppu , Lando Floods Luzon, Monday Update
Despite
predictions for a strong El NiƱo to bring above-average rain to most
of California, forecasters say it won't likely help where it's most
needed.
The
NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal outlook does not forecast
where or when snowstorms may arrive, nor does it project seasonal
snowfall totals. Snow forecasts are determined by the strength and
track of winter storms, which are not predictable more than a week in
advance.
But
the outlook does say El NiƱo isn't expected to make a significant
difference in bringing snow to one of areas hardest hit by the
drought: the central and southern Sierra Nevada
Every
day, Yasin Mohammed Aliye stakes out a spot on his small farm to chew
khat leaves, a stimulant, and guard against intruders.
The
khat, he explains, helps to dull the hunger.
“We
got just one day of rain each month during the rainy season,” Mr.
Yasin said, referring to the days from July through September. “It
should have been raining every other day. Now my harvest has failed.”
The
green hills and full fields around here belie an alarming fact: This
is the worst drought Ethiopia has experienced in more than a decade.
HUMAN
activity is leading to the rapid draining of about one third of the
planet’s largest underground water reserves and it is unclear how
much fluid remains in them, two new studies have found.
Consequently,
huge sections of the population are using up groundwater without
knowing when it will run out, researchers said in findings that will
appear in the journal Water Resources Research and were posted online
Tuesday.
“If
we continue with business as usual, and we don’t act on reducing
carbon emissions, in that case, there could be a 20 to 70 percent
reduction in Antarctic krill by 2100,” Dr. Kawaguchi said. “By
2300, the Southern Ocean might not be suitable for krill
reproduction.”
California drought: Past dry periods have lasted more than 200 years, scientists say
California's
current drought is being billed as the driest period in the state's
recorded rainfall history. But scientists who study the West's
long-term climate patterns say the state has been parched for much
longer stretches before that 163-year historical period began.
And
they worry that the "megadroughts" typical of California's
earlier history could come again.
Through
studies of tree rings, sediment and other natural evidence,
researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that
lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years --
compared to the mere three-year duration of the current dry spell.
The two most severe megadroughts make the Dust Bowl of the 1930s look
tame: a 240-year-long drought that started in 850 and, 50 years after
the conclusion of that one, another that stretched at least 180 years
Two
degrees Celsius warming will spike sea level rise
19
October, 2015
A
jump in global average temperatures of 1.5 degree Celsius to two
degrees Celsius will see the collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, the
floating margins of the Antarctic ice sheet, and lead to hundreds and
even thousands of years of sea level rise, warns new research.
Using
computer modelling, the researchers simulated the ice sheet's
response to a warming climate under a range of greenhouse gas
emission scenarios.
They
found in all but one scenario (that of significantly reduced
emissions beyond 2020) large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet were
lost, resulting in a substantial rise in global sea level.
"The
long reaction time of the Antarctic ice sheet -- which can take
thousands of years to fully manifest its response to changes in
environmental conditions -- coupled with the fact that CO2 lingers in
the atmosphere for a very long time means that the warming we
generate now will affect the ice sheet in ways that will be
incredibly hard to undo," said lead researcher Nicholas Golledge
from Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.
The
findings suggest that to avoid the loss of the Antarctic ice shelves,
and a long-term commitment to many metres of sea level rise,
atmospheric warming needs to be kept below two degree Celsius above
present levels.
"Missing
the two degree Celsius target will result in an Antarctic
contribution to sea level rise that could be up to 10 metres higher
than today," Golledge said.
"The
stakes are obviously very high -- 10 percent of the world's
population lives within 10 metres of present sea level,"
Golledge noted.
"The
striking thing about these findings is that we have taken the most
conservative estimates possible," study co-author Chris Fogwill
from the University of New South Wales in Australia pointed out.
The
last time CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere were similar to
present levels was about three million years ago, Golledge said.
"At
that time average global temperatures were two or three degrees
warmer, large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet had melted, and sea
levels were a staggering 20 metres higher than they are now," he
noted.
"We
are currently on track for a global temperature rise of a couple of
degrees which will take us into that ballpark, so there may well be a
few scary surprises in store for us, possibly within just a few
hundred years," Golledge said.
The
study was published in the journal Nature.
Guy McPherson has many more positve feedbacks recorded than this.
See his tatest update HERE
Guy McPherson has many more positve feedbacks recorded than this.
See his tatest update HERE
Alaskanboreal forest fires release more carbon than the trees can absorb
China Is Building The Great Green Wall To Hold Back The Desert
Drought uncovers 400-year-old church in Mexican reservoir (VIDEO)
The relics of a 400-year-old church built by Spanish colonizers have been discovered at the Nezahualcoyotl reservoir in southern Mexico as water levels in the Grijalba River, in the state of Chiapas, dropped by almost 25 meters due to a lack of rain.
The
building, which is known as the Temple of Santiago, as well as the
Temple of Quechula, is roofless, over 60 meters in length, and has
walls as high as 10 meters
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