Kerry's visit to Sochi

Yet another huge diplomatic victory for Russia

The Vineyard of the Saker,

13 May, 2015

Unless you read Russian or monitor the free blogosphere, you might not have noticed this, but something big just happened in Russia: Kerry, Nuland and a large State Department delegation have traveled to Sochi were they met with Foreign Minister Lavrov and then with President Putin.  With the latter they spent over 4 hours.  Not only that, but Kerry made a few rather interesting remarks, saying that the Minsk-2 Agreement (M2A) was the only way forward and that he would strongly caution Poroshenko against the idea of renewing military operations.

Welcome back to reality John!

To say that this is a stunning development would be an understatement.

For one thing, this means that the so-called “isolation of Russia” is now officially over, even for the “Indispensable Empire”.

Second, this is, as far as I know, the first official US endorsement of M2A.  This is rather humiliating for the US considering that M2A was negotiated without the Americans.

Third, for the very first time the US has actually warned the Ukronazi junta against a military attack.  This, at a time when the Ukronazis are in a state of bellicose frenzy and Poroshenko just promised to re-conqueor not only the Donetsk Airport, but all of the Donbass and even Crimea, show that for the very first time the US and Kiev are not on the same page.

Not on CNN

Fourth, the USA has, for the first time, declared that if M2A was implemented, EU and US sanctions would be lifted.  Interestingly, the Russians were not even interested in discussing the topic of sanctions.

So what does that all mean?

At this point, nothing much.

Americans are terrible negotiators and in every single US-Russian negotiation over the conflict in the Ukraine the Russians completely out-negotiated their American “geostrategic partners” (the quasi-official ironic Russian term describing the West) every time.  What typically happens, is that Kerry caves in, then comes back to Washington and changes his tune by 180 degree.  The Russians know that and the Russian media stressed that in its analyses.

Still, the USA can zig and then zag as many times as they want, reality does not zag.  If anything, the recent presence of Chinese and Indian troops on the Red Square showed that the notion of “isolating Russia” is a non-starter whether Kerry & Co. accept it or not.

Then, there was the rather interesting behavior of Nuland, who was with Kerry’s delegation, she refused to speak to the press and left looking rather unhappy.

Not on the BBC

Finally, a quick check of the Imperial Mouthpieces reveals that the Imperial Propaganda Department does not really know what to make of it all.

So what is going on, really?

Honestly, this one is too early to call and, as I said, the chances for yet another US “zag” are very high.

Still, what *might* be happening is that the Americans have finally (!) figured out a few basic facts:

1. Russia will not back down
2. Russia is ready for war
3. The Nazi-occupied Ukraine is collapsing
4. Most of the world supports Russia
5. The entire US policy towards Russia has failed

All of the above is rather obvious to any halfway competent observer, but for an Administration completely intoxicated with imperial hubris, crass ignorance and denial these are very, very painful realities to catch up with.  However, denying them might, at the end of the day, get the USA nuked.  As the expression goes, if you head is in the sand, your ass is in the air.

Thus it is possible that what just happens is the first sign of a US sobering up and that what Kerry came to explore with Lavrov and Putin is some kind of face saving exit option.  If that is so, then this is terminal news for Poroshenko as this means that the US has basically thrown in the towel in utter disgust with the freaks in power in Kiev.

Furthermore, this might be a sign that US military analysts have taken a very negative view of the Ukronazi changes of success in their planned “Reconquista” of the Donbass.  By going to Russia and officially endorsing M2A Kerry might be sending a message to Poroshenko: forget it, it ain’t happening!

Still, I would strongly caution against any premature optimism.  I consider a US “zag” a quasi-certitude.  My hope is that the “zag” will be limited in magnitude and that when it happens, it will be more about face-saving exit for Obama than about a denial of reality.

What is certain though, is that Russia has won yet another battle is this long war and that all the signs are pointing at the inevitable defeat of the Empire.

The Saker

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