IPCC - "Don't mention the war!"

When I did a Google search for 'methane clathrates' and 'IPCC report' their 2007 report came up - and then comment on their 2013 report . Seems they might have had a rethink between 2007 and 2013. 

Many thanks to Kristy Lewis of Sydney.

“Don’t mention the War”

THIS IS WHAT THE IPCC HAD TO SAY ON METHANE

Seemorerocks

This is from a 2007 IPCC report:

"Methane has increased as a result of human activities related to agriculture, natural gas distribution and landfills. Methane is also released from natural processes that occur, for example, in wetlands. Methane concentrations are not currently increasing in the atmosphere because growth rates decreased over the last two decades".

Well, they could have been forgiven for that in 2007 in the days before the danger of methane clathrates had been identified and before the days of 39 positive feedbacks.

However, it seems that since then a political decision has been made to expunge any mention of the threat from their concensus reports.

This is from a commentary on the 2013 IPCC report

For years we’ve been warned via the media that there was a risk of irreversible global catastrophe. Is the IPCC stepping back from those forecasts too?  The words abrupt, irreversible, and tipping point didn’t make it into the Headline Points in 2013.

Reader Katabasis at Bishop Hill reports on the Royal Society meeting where abrupt and irreversible changes were discussed. Katabasis notes that in the IPCC Chapter 12 Table 12.4 many of the catastrophic changes being forecast are described as “unlikely” or “very unlikely” or even “exceptionally unlikely”. The only one now considered “likely” is that the Arctic might be ice free 40 years from now (which is a big step back from “ice free by 2013″ as some commentators predicted). Moreover confidence is low.

Will IPCC authors now correct Gore, Flannery, or other commentators when they tell us that CO2 emissions will probably lead to abrupt or irreversible ice sheet collapse, or collapses of the monsoonal circulation or Atlantic currents. Note the IPCC is saying “low confidence” for  long term megadroughts, and monsoon changes, which means, “we don’t know” rather than “unlikely”. But why spend billions to prevent something you have low confidence will happen?

http://joannenova.com.au/2013/10/ipcc-says-abrupt-irreversible-clathrate-methane-ice-sheet-collapse-are-unlikely-or-unknown/

Have a look at the Headline Points for 2013

While airbrushing out the clathrate gun they forgot to remove all the evidence for they included this interesting graph which seems to indicate the opposite.

Perhaps I can leave the last word to Basil Fawlty