Paul Beckwith ~ Abrupt Transition in Climate to a Much Warmer World
by Paul Beckwith for World Daily
9
August, 2013
What
else can we expect as we negotiate our abrupt transition in climate
to a much
warmer world?
Abrupt
climate change. It is happening today, big time. The northern
hemisphere atmospheric circulation system is doing its own thing,
without the guidance of a stable jet stream. The jet stream is
fractured into meandering and stuck streaked segments, which are
hoovering up water vapor and directing it day after day to unlucky
localized regions, depositing months or seasons worth of rain in only
a few days, turning these locales into water worlds and trashing all
infrastructure like houses, roads, train tracks and pipelines.
Creating massive sinkholes and catastrophic landslides. And climate
change is only getting warmed up.
In
the Arctic methane is coming out of the thawing permafrost. Both on
land and under the ocean on the sea floor. The Yedoma permafrost in
Siberia is now belching out methane at greatly accelerated rates due
to intense warming. The collapsing sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is
exposing the open ocean to greatly increased solar absorption and
turbulent mixing from wave action due to persistent cyclonic
activity. Massive cyclonic activity will trash large portions of the
sea ice if positioned to export broken ice via the Fram Strait.
What
does it all mean? There is no new normal? Far from it. We have lost
our stable climate. Likely permanently. Rates of change are greatly
exceeding anything in the paleorecords. By at least 10x, and more
likely >30x. We are heading to a much warmer world. The transition
will be brutal for civilization.
Can
we avoid this? Stop it? Probably not? At least with climate reality
being suppressed by corporations and their government employees. With
their relentless push for more and more fossil fuel infrastructure
and mining and drilling.
Craziness, in a nutshell. Temperatures over land surfaces in the far north have been consistently over 25 C for weeks, due to persistent high pressure atmospheric blocks leading to clear skies and unblocked solar exposure. Water temperatures in rivers and streams in the far north have resulted in large fish kills as their ecological mortality thresholds have been exceeded. Many other regions are experiencing strange incidences of animal mortality. Mass migrations of animals towards the poles are occurring on land and sea, at startling rates, in an effort for more hospitable surroundings for survival. Shifting food source distributions is causing even hardier, less vulnerable species to be severely stressed. For example, dolphins are being stranded or dying, birds are dropping out of the sky, and new parasites and bacteria are proliferating with warmer temperatures.
In
regions of the world undergoing severe droughts the vegetation and
soils are drying and fires are exploding in size, frequency, and
severity. Especially hard-hit are large regions of the US southwest,
southern Europe, and large swaths of Asia. Who knows if forests that
are leveled by fire will eventually be reforested; it all depends on
what type of climate establishes in the region.
What about coastal regions around the world and sea levels? Not looking too good for the home team. In 2012 Greenland tossed off about 700 Gt (Gt=billion tons) of sea ice, from both melting and calving. As the ice melts it is darkening from concentrated contaminants being exposed, from much greater areas of low albedo meltwater pools, and from fresh deposits of black carbon ash from northern forest fires. Even more worrying are ominous signs of increasing movement. GPS sensor anchored to the 3 km thick glaciers hundreds of km from the coast are registering increased sliding. Meltwater moulins are chewing through the ice from the surface to the bedrock and are transporting heat downward, softening up the ice bonded to the bedrock and allowing sliding. Eventually, large chunks will slide into the ocean causing tsunamis and abrupt sea level rises. Many regions of the sea floor around Greenland are scarred from enormous calving episodes in the past.
On
a positive note, this knowledge of our changing climate threat is
filtering out to greater numbers of the slumbering public that has
been brainwashed into lethargy by the protectors of the status quo.
As more and more people see the trees dying in their back yards and
their cities and houses and roads buckling under unrelenting
torrential rains they are awaking to the threat. And there will be a
threshold crossed and a tipping point reached in human behavior. An
understanding of the reality of the risks we face. And finally global
concerted action. To slash emissions. And change our ways. And retool
our economies and reset our priorities. And not take our planet for
granted.
Paul
Beckwith is a PhD student with the laboratory for paleoclimatology
and climatology, department of geography, University of Ottawa. He
teaches second year climatology/meteorology as a part-time professor.
His thesis topic is “Abrupt climate change in the past and
present.” He holds an M.Sc. in laser physics and a B.Eng. in
engineering physics.
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