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from Mike Ruppert -
HERE'S
WHERE WE ARE -- Like it or not. It looks at though the attacks will
take place, but it is not certain. Reading many stories this morning
it is clear that there will some kind of meeting of the UN Security
Council, today, tomorrow, or Friday at latest. We should hold little
or no expectations for the outcome, but allow for the possibility of
miracles.
- We have no concrete, confirmed info on the whereabouts of Bashar al-Assad and family, though there is one credible report that he landed in Tehran yesterday.
- The Chinese have officially stated that they believe this is a move for regime change, the redundantly-confirmed trigger for Iranian intervention.
- The West has said repeatedly that they are prepared to attack without UN sanction but must go through the motions. That is why no one should jump to any conclusions UNTIL we see what happens at the UN. Russia, China, Iran and on-aligned nations still have ever-shrinking windows for diplomatic moves.
Hard
as it may be for most, now is the time to be quiet and to pray. It is
a time to love everything that you love, and the things that you
don't love.
....The
situation is clear and the UN is where we keep our eyes and ears --
for better or worse -- because the missiles won't fly and the bombs
won't drop until there has been a UN session.
There
should be 50 million people in America's streets now. But there
aren't and there is little we can do to make that happen in three
days.
Ten years ago - in 2003 - there WERE millions of people out on the street. What a difference - THEN and NOW.
---SMR
Strike
against Assad regime stalled by British political rows
Military
response to alleged Syria chemical attack may be delayed until
Tuesday
28
August, 2013
Allied
air strikes against the Syrian government over the alleged use of
chemical weapons could be delayed until next week in the face of
strong opposition in the UK parliament to British involvement in
immediate military action.
The
British prime minister, David Cameron, conceded that MPs would be
given a second vote to approve military action to defuse a
parliamentary revolt, ahead of a Commons debate on Syria on Thursday.
UK sources indicated that the US, which had planned to launch the
strikes by the weekend, is prepared to revive a back-up plan to delay
the strikes until Tuesday when Barack Obama is due to set out for the
G20 summit in Russia.
Such
a move by the Obama administration would effectively hand Cameron a
political lifeline after the opposition Labour party threatened to
inflict a defeat on the Conservative-led coalition in parliament.
In
an effort to build support for punitive strikes, the US and UK will
on Thursday publish a joint summary of the intelligence which they
say points towards the Assad regime's responsibility for the poison
gas attack of 21 August in Ghouta, eastern Damascus, that killed over
1,000 people.
In
a reflection of the different political pressures pulling the
transatlantic allies in different directions, Downing Street
undertook to return to the security council in a renewed effort to
secure a UN mandate for military action after Russia blocked a
British resolution at an informal meeting in New York. But the US
state department meanwhile insisted it saw "no avenue forward"
at the UN for finding an international consensus for armed action,
because of Russian support for Bashar al-Assad's regime.
Furthermore,
Washington made it clear it saw no need to wait for a report by UN
inspectors currently in Damascus investigating the gas attack,
estimated to have killed more than 1,000 people.
"We
are going to make our own decisions on our own timelines about our
response," the state department spokeswoman Marie Harf said. She
added that because of initial Syrian government obstruction of the UN
investigation, it had "passed the point where it can be
credible".
However,
the UK is now committed to wait for the UN report. The House of
Commons will be asked by the government on Thursday to approve a
"strong humanitarian response", possibly including force in
principle. Direct action would depend on a second vote which in turn
would be held after the UN weapons inspectors had reported back.
UN
officials said the report could take another week or more to produce.
The inspectors will continue to collect samples at the Ghouta site
for the next four days, bringing their presence to the two weeks
agreed with Damascus. The samples would then have to be subjected to
laboratory analysis.
If
the wait for the UN report extends much beyond Tuesday, the
transatlantic ties could fray further, putting the prime minister
under intense pressure. Cameron had faced the prospect of a defeat,
or a politically damaging narrow victory, when MPs vote on Thursday
evening on a motion calling for a proportionate response.
Syria
warned of "grave consequences" if US-led military action
goes ahead. Bashar al-Jaafari, Syria's ambassador to the UN, told
reporters outside the security council in New York on Wednesday that
the effect could be felt across the Middle East. "We should keep
in mind what happened in Iraq and Libya", the envoy said, adding
that the toppling of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi by Nato-backed rebels in
2011 had "spread terrorists all over Africa".
Jaafari
urged the US, UK and France to back off and allow UN weapons
inspectors to complete their investigation into last week's chemical
attack outside Damascus. The sole purpose of the threat of airstrikes
was "undermining the inspection team." Jaafari added: "We
are not war mongers, we are a peaceful nation seeking stability in
the area. The Syrian government is against the use of chemical
weapons by all means – this is a moral obscenity."
Speaking
in London the British foreign secretary, William Hague, said it was
time for the UN to act. "This is the first use of chemical
warfare in the 21st century. It has to be unacceptable, we have to
confront something that is a war crime, something that is a crime
against humanity. If we don't do so, then we will have to confront
even bigger war crimes in the future."
The
state department also gave more details of its intended justification
for military action. A spokeswoman said Assad's alleged use of
chemical weapons violated "the general law of war" while
the use and proliferation of such weapons represented a threat to
America's core national interests.
With
as many as 70 Tory MPs threatening to rebel, British opposition
leader Ed Miliband announced just after 5pm BST that he would
instruct his MPs to vote against the government motion if a separate
Labour amendment – calling for any action to be delayed – was
defeated.
Within
two hours the British government announced, as it published its
motion for the debate, that a second vote would have to be held
before Britain joins any military action. The motion says: "Before
any direct British involvement in such action a further vote of the
House of Commons will take place."
Downing
Street was furious with Miliband and accused him of having suffered a
giant "wobble" after he had appeared to indicate on Tuesday
night that he would be prepared to support military action, subject
to legal approval. But Labour hit back and said that the prime
minister had been resisting a second vote until Miliband tweeted his
plan to table his own amendment.
A
Labour source said: "We will continue to scrutinise this motion
but at 5.15pm David Cameron totally ruled out a second vote, an hour
and a half later he changed his mind. Ed was determined to do the
right thing. It has taken Labour forcing a vote to force the
government to do the right thing."
Downing
Street said the prime minister offered a second vote because he wants
to act in a consensual way. A spokesperson said: "The prime
minister is acutely aware of the deep concerns in the country caused
by what happened over Iraq. That's why we are committed to taking
action to deal with this war crime – but taking action in the right
way, proceeding on a consensual basis."
"So
this motion endorses the government's consistent approach that we
should take action in response to Assad's chemical weapons attack;
reflects the need to proceed on a consensual basis, taking account of
the work done by weapons inspectors; and reflects the prime
minister's respect for the UN process – something he made clear to
President Obama several days ago."
The
No 10 move is likely to take the heat out of Thursday's parliamentary
debate that will be opened by Cameron at 2.30pm and wound up by Nick
Clegg, the deputy prime minister, at 10pm. The debate will be
preceded by a meeting of the cabinet that will approve a
recommendation from the National Security Council that Britain should
join the military strikes. Dominic Grieve, the British attorney
general, advised the NSC that such action would be legal under
international law.
The
National Security Council also agreed a specific plan for a British
contribution to military action. This focused on a "limited
one-off" operation and the measures that might have to be taken
to protect British interests in the region, including the defence of
the UK's sovereign base in Cyprus, which is thought to be potentially
within range of President Assad's Scud missiles.
Though
considered unlikely, sources said it was possible the US would act
without British support – which would be a huge embarrassment for
the prime minister. It would also be politically difficult for the
White House. US officials have stressed that America would not act
unilaterally, but in concert with partners.
France
has pledged to take part in punitive action against the Assad regime,
and its presidential system means that Francois Hollande, like Barack
Obama is not obliged to consult the legislature.
However,
British abstention would undermine Washington's claims of broad
support.
US readies strikes on Syria
US officials have revealed plans for multi-national strikes on Syria that could last for days.
.
28
August, 2013
United
Nations chemical weapons experts completed a second field trip to
rebel-held suburbs, looking for evidence of what - and who - caused
an apparent poison gas attack that residents say killed hundreds of
people a week ago.
This
morning (NZT) US House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner urged
President Barack Obama to make the case personally to Congress and
the American people for potential military action in Syria.
In
a letter to Obama that was released to the media, Boehner said Obama
must explain the legal basis for any use of force in Syria and the
"intended effect of the potential military strikes".
But
as UN chief Ban Ki-moon appealed for unity among world powers and
sought more time for the inspectors to complete their work,
Washington and its European and Middle East allies said their minds
were made up and that President Bashar al-Assad must face retribution
for using banned weapons against his people.
New
Zealand was among countries last night to receive briefings on
possible action in New York last night.
Syria's
government, supported notably by its main arms supplier Russia, cried
foul. It blamed rebel "terrorists" for releasing the toxins
with the help of the United States, Britain and France and warned it
would be a "graveyard of invaders".
Syrian
officials say the West is playing into the hands of its al Qaeda
enemies. The presence of Islamist militants among the rebels has
deterred Western powers from arming Assad's foes - but they say they
must now act to stop the use of poison gas.
Britain
pushed the other four veto-holding members of the UN Security Council
at a meeting in New York to authorise military action against Assad
to protect Syrian civilians - a move certain to be blocked by Russia
and, probably, China.
The
United States and its allies say a UN veto will not stop them.
Western diplomats called the proposed resolution a manoeuvre to
isolate Moscow and rally a coalition behind air strikes. Arab states,
NATO and Turkey also condemned Assad.
Washington
has repeatedly said that President Barack Obama has not yet made up
his mind on what action he will order.
A
senior US official said strikes could last several days and would
involve other armed forces: "We're talking to a number of
different allies regarding participation in a possible kinetic
strike," the administration official said overnight (NZT).
Western
armies are expected to wait until the UN experts withdraw. Their
initial 14-day mandate expires in four days, and Secretary-General
Ban said they need four days work.
A
second US official said objectives were still being defined but that
the targets could be chosen to prevent Assad from using chemical
weapons in future. Washington was confident it could handle Syrian
defences and any possible reprisals by its allies, including Iran and
Lebanese militia Hezbollah.
INVESTORS,
RESIDENTS ALARMED
With
only the timing of an attack apparently in doubt, oil prices soared
to a six-month high. World stock markets were hit by jitters over
where the international escalation of Syria's civil war might lead -
however much Obama and his allies may hope to limit it to a short
punitive mission.
Neighbouring
Turkey, a NATO member, put its forces on alert. Israel mobilised some
army reservists and bolstered its defences against missile strikes
from either Syria or Lebanon.
Syria's
envoy to the United Nations said he had asked Ban to have the team
investigate three new attacks by rebel groups.
People
in Damascus, wearied by a civil war that has left the capital ringed
by rebel-held suburbs, braced for air strikes.
In
a city where dozens of military sites are mixed in among civilian
neighbourhoods, some were leaving home in the hope of finding
somewhere safer, though many doubted it was worth it: "Every
street, every neighbourhood has some government target," said a
nurse in the city centre. "Where do we hide?"
At
grocery stores, shoppers loaded up on bread, dry goods and cans.
Bottled water and batteries were also in demand.
TIMING
CALCULATIONS
Numerous
factors, including weather and assessments of Syrian air defences,
may affect the timing of strikes. Analysts expect cruise missiles to
be launched from US ships in the Mediterranean. Aircraft could also
play a role, as may forces from other NATO powers, notably Britain
and France.
Obama
is waiting for a US intelligence report, though its findings are in
little doubt. US officials have already blamed Assad for the attacks
on August 21.
British
Prime Minister David Cameron has recalled parliament to debate the
Syria crisis on Thursday (Friday NZT). He should be able to secure
cautious support, despite widespread misgivings among Western voters
about new entanglements in the Muslim world. But British action is
unlikely before lawmakers have had their say.
The
prospect of a Group of Twenty summit in St. Petersburg next Thursday
may also weigh in calculations over timing any strikes. Russian host
President Vladimir Putin has made clear his view that Western leaders
are using human rights as a pretext to impose their will on other
sovereign states.
"The
West behaves like a monkey with a grenade in the Islamic world,"
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin tweeted on Wednesday.
Western leaders in the G20 may prefer to have any strikes on Syria
completed before the summit starts.
As
diplomats from Russia, China, Britain, France and the United States
met at the United Nations, Moscow said Britain was "premature"
in seeking a Security Council resolution for "necessary
measures" to protect Syrian civilians.
British
Foreign Secretary William Hague said Russia and China might veto the
move but added: "It's time the UN Security Council shouldered
its responsibilities on Syria which for the last two and a half years
it has failed to do."
A
senior Western diplomat said: "Of course there will be a Russian
veto, but that's part of the objective - to show that we tried
everything and the Russians left us no choice.
"The
Americans want to go quickly."
INTERNATIONAL
LAW
China's
official newspaper also criticised what it saw as a push for illegal,
Iraq-style "regime change" - despite US denials that Obama
aims to overthrow Assad.
The
US-led NATO alliance said evidence pointed to Assad's forces having
used gas, calling it a threat to global security.
Ban's
special envoy for Syria, Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi, said
"international law is clear" in requiring Council
authorisation for any military action. But Western leaders say
precedents, including NATO's bombing of Russian ally Serbia in 1999
during the Kosovo war, allow them to protect civilians.
There
was tension between the United Nations and Western governments. One
UN official said: "The UN is annoyed and feels the Western
powers haven't shared data or evidence with them, which is a problem.
It kind of undercuts UN authority."
Rebel
fighters and opposition activists showed the inspectors homes in the
eastern Damascus suburb of Zamalka that had been hit by last week's
gas release. The experts also tested and interviewed survivors in
hospital, as they did on a first trip on Monday that came under
sniper attack.
Amateur
video showed the convoy of white UN jeeps driving along a road,
accompanied by rebels. One pick-up truck was mounted with an
anti-aircraft gun. Gunmen leaned from the windows of another.
Bystanders waved as the vehicles passed.
Syria's
civil war has killed more than 100,000 people since 2011 and driven
millions from their homes, many crossing borders into Turkey,
Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.
It
has heightened tensions between Assad's sponsor Iran and Israel,
which bombed Syria this year, and has fuelled sectarian bloodshed in
Lebanon and in Iraq, where bombs killed more than 70 people on
Wednesday alone.
Iranian
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that US
action would be "a disaster for the region".
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