Extreme
weather bears down on rice
A
shopper buys rice in a supermarket in Yichang, Hubei province. The
bad weather that hit China's major rice-growing regions is likely to
drive up imports in the world's biggest rice buyer. Liu Junfeng / For
China Daily
14
August, 2013
2013-14
import quota set at 5.3 million tons
Drought,
heat, heavy rain and floods in China's major rice-growing regions are
likely to cut the country's harvest and increase reliance on imports,
industry experts have forecast.
An
ongoing drought has harmed rice crops in Central and East China's
major rice-growing regions such as Hunan and Jiangxi provinces.
Meanwhile,
heavy rain and floods have hit Heilongjiang province in Northeast
China.
In
addition, a heat wave has scorched 13 provincial-level areas and left
about 6 million people and 1.72 million head of livestock short of
drinking water, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said.
According
to the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, more than
1.87 million hectares of farmland have been affected by the drought
in Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi provinces. About 70 percent of the land
involved is planted with rice.
Rain
of medium to heavy intensity has continued battering Heilongjiang
province, where it has flooded 5,300 ha of rice farmland.
Ding
Lixin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
in Beijing, said the central government had set a rice import quota
of 5.32 million tons for 2013-14.
Ding
said the rough weather may boost actual rice imports to between 2.8
and 3 million tons this year alone.
China
imported 2.36 million tons of rice from international markets such as
Thailand and Vietnam in 2012.
"August
is an important month for paddy rice to develop, when it needs more
water and nutrients to grow. The drought will certainly cut yields
and disrupt plans for late planting in South China," Ding said.
Sun
Hongrong, who operates a family farm in the suburban Shanghai
district of Songjiang, said high temperatures have been a headache
since July.
Although
his rice-planting area doubled this year to about 13 ha, Sun
estimated that output will shrink 15 to 20 percent this year.
Harvesting is due to start in about 20 days.
"For
good-quality rice, the best temperature for pollination is about 32
degrees Celsius. But the reality in Shanghai is a temperature above
38 degrees Celsius for more than a week," said Sun.
The
heat has also pushed up his costs for irrigation and labor.
Rice
is different from corn or wheat, in that several countries such as
the United States, Canada and Argentina are big producers of the
latter grains. The world's other major rice-growing nations are
mainly in Asia, such as Laos, Vietnam, Thailand, India and Indonesia.
"The
problem that China must contend with is that these countries have
limited land and production capacity in comparison with China.
"China
might confront a severe situation if the rice output in these Asian
countries was cut by natural disasters" or other developments,
said Zheng Dawei, a professor at the China Agricultural University in
Beijing.
China
is the world's biggest rice importer. The Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations has forecast that the country's
rice imports will reach 3 million tons, about 8 percent of the total
global rice trade, in the 2013-14 crop year.
The
country already imported about 1.32 million tons of rice in the first
half of 2013, up about 12 percent from a year earlier.
China's
National Meteorological Center has said that the heat wave will last
only until the middle of August. But the drought may persist until
the end of the month, because rain forecast for the final 10 days of
the month may prove insufficient.
To
tackle the drought, the government has allocated 1.65 billion yuan
($269.5 million) for the exploration of ground water sources,
artificial rainmaking, building new water conservation facilities and
other relief efforts.
"The
impact of the drought on rice output in South China may be limited
because the northeastern regions, rather than the south, have become
the top contributor to the nation's grain harvest in recent years,"
said Li Guoxiang, a rural development researcher at the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences.
"However,
if the floods in the northeast continue, it will have a worse impact
on this year's rice output," Li said.
The
adverse weather conditions have triggered concerns that the grain
market will be the target of domestic and international speculators.
Li
said domestic rice prices won't show a broad-based rise, even if
China fails to achieve a second harvest this year, because the global
supply-demand equation is balanced. China can adjust by resorting to
the international grain markets.
"Grain
stocks in China are at a high level, which also weakens the
possibility of capital speculation on rice," Li said.
zhongnan@chinadaily.com.cn
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