The
PetroYuan Cometh: China Docks Navy Destroyer In Iran's Strait Of
Hormuz Port
21
September, 2014
Since
China
fired its first 'official' shot across the Petrodollar bow a year
ago, there has been an increasing groundswell of
de-dollarization across the world's energy trade (despite
Washington's exclamations of 'isolated' non-dollar transactors). The
rise of the PetroYuan has not been far from our headlines in the last
year, with China increasingly leveraging its rise as an economic
power and as the most important incremental market for hydrocarbon
exporters, in the Persian Gulf and the former Soviet Union, to
circumscribe dollar dominance in global energy - with potentially
profound ramifications for America’s strategic position. And now,
as AP reports, for the first time in history, China has docked a
Navy Destroyer in the Southern Iranian port of Bandar-Abbas - right
across the Straits of Hormuz from 'US stronghold-for-now' Bahrain and
UAE.
The
rise of the PetroYuan has not been far from our headlines in the last
year:
And
now, as
AP reports,
for the first time in history, China
has docked a Navy Destroyer in a Southern Iranian port of
Bandar-Abbas - right across the Straits of Hormuz from 'US
stronghold-for-now' Bahrain and UAE.
Adm.
Hossein Azad, naval base chief in the southern port of Bandar Abbas,
said the four-day visit that began Saturday saw the two navies
sharing expertise in the field of marine rescue.
"On
the last day of their visit while leaving Iran, the Chinese warships
will stage a joint drill in line with mutual collaboration, and
exchange of marine and technical information particularly in the
field of aid and rescue," said Azad.
The
report said the destroyer was accompanied by a logistics ship, and
that both were on their way to the Gulf of Aden as a part of an
international mission to combat piracy.
...
Last
year a Russian naval group docked in the same port on its way back
from a Pacific Ocean mission.
The
move is also seen part of off efforts by Iran to strike a balance
among foreign navies present in the area near the strategic Strait of
Hormuz, the passageway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which
a fifth of the world's oil is shipped.
U.S.
Navy's 5th Fleet is based in nearby Bahrain, on the southern coast of
the Gulf.
*
* *
Here's
why it matters...
*
* *
History
and logic caution that current practices are not set in stone. With
the rise of the “petroyuan,” movement towards a less
dollar-centric currency regime in international energy markets—with
potentially serious implications for the dollar’s broader
standing—is already underway.
As
China has emerged as a major player on the global energy scene, it
has also embarked on an extended campaign to internationalise
its
currency.
A rising share of China’s external trade is being denominated and
settled in renminbi; issuance of renminbi-denominated financial
instruments is growing. China is pursuing a protracted process of
capital account liberalisation essential to full renminbi
internationalisation, and is allowing more exchange rate flexibility
for the yuan. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) now has swap
arrangements with over thirty other central banks—meaning that
renminbi already effectively functions as a reserve currency.
Chinese
policymakers appreciate the “advantages of incumbency” the dollar
enjoys; their aim is not for renminbi to replace dollars, but to
position the yuan alongside the greenback as a transactional and
reserve currency. Besides economic benefits (e.g., lowering Chinese
businesses’ foreign exchange costs), Beijing wants—for strategic
reasons—to slow further growth of its enormous dollar reserves.
China has watched America’s increasing propensity to cut off
countries from the U.S. financial system as a foreign policy tool,
and worries about Washington trying to leverage it this way; renminbi
internationalisation can mitigate such vulnerability. More broadly,
Beijing understands the importance of dollar dominance to American
power; by chipping away at it, China can contain excessive U.S.
unilateralism.
China
has long incorporated financial instruments into its efforts to
access foreign hydrocarbons. Now Beijing wants major energy producers
to accept renminbi as a transactional currency—including to settle
Chinese hydrocarbon purchases—and incorporate renminbi in their
central bank reserves. Producers have reason to be receptive. China
is, for the vastly foreseeable future, the main incremental market
for hydrocarbon producers in the Persian Gulf and former Soviet
Union. Widespread expectations of long-term yuan appreciation make
accumulating renminbi reserves a “no brainer” in terms of
portfolio diversification. And, as America is increasingly viewed as
a hegemon in relative decline, China is seen as the preeminent rising
power. Even for Gulf Arab states long reliant on Washington as their
ultimate security guarantor, this makes closer ties to Beijing an
imperative strategic hedge. For Russia, deteriorating
relations with the United States impel deeper cooperation with China,
against what both Moscow and Beijing consider a declining, yet still
dangerously flailing and over-reactive, America.
For
several years,
China
has paid for some of its oil imports from Iran with renminbi;
in 2012, the PBOC and the UAE Central Bank set up a
$5.5 billion currency swap, setting the stage for settling Chinese
oil imports from Abu Dhabi in
renminbi—an important expansion of petroyuan use in the Persian
Gulf. The $400 billion Sino-Russian gas deal that was concluded this
year apparently provides for settling Chinese purchases of Russian
gas in renminbi; if fully realised, this would mean an appreciable
role for renminbi in transnational gas transactions.
Looking
ahead, use of
renminbi
to settle international hydrocarbon sales will surely increase,
accelerating the decline of American influence in key
energy-producing regions. It will also make it marginally harder for
Washington to finance what China and other rising powers consider
overly interventionist foreign policies—a prospect America’s
political class has hardly begun to ponder.
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